Likelihood and higher-order approximations to tail areas: A review and annotated bibliography

Recent developments in higher-order asymptotic theory for statistical inference have emphasized the fundamental role of the likelihood function in providing accurate approximations to cumulative distribution functions. This paper summarizes the main results, with an emphasis on classes of problems for which relatively easily implemented solutions exist. A survey of the literature indicates the large number of problems solved and solvable by this method. Generalizations and extensions, with suggestions for further development, are considered.     

高校扩招政策的成本-收益分析

建立在经济人假设基础上的成本-收益分析方法对我国高校扩招政策有很强的解释力。高校扩招政策的实施引起了不少社会问题,政府扩大内需、缓解就业压力与推进科教兴国战略的预期收益并没有很好地实现,而且付出了教育质量下降、教育有失公平、教育“返贫”等巨大成本。从价值判断的角度来说,政府的收益是小于成本的。相对于公共部门的个人消费者来说,由于高校扩招带来的就业风险增大,作为经济人的个人在选择教育消费的时候,应该有成本与收益核算的意识,理性地选择消费。就高等教育的发展而言,政府应该更多地关注教育质量的提高,高等教育的大众化也应该与社会发展水平相适应,真正实现本质上的大众化。     

海权、霸权与英帝国(1688～1815)

英国在1688~1815的一百多年时间里,由一个一般的民族国家发展成为世界强国、海上霸主、殖民帝国,究其原因,海军与海权对英国这一阶段的发展起到了极其重要的作用。英国历届政府坚持把赢得制海权作为战略目标,把海权与海外贸易和殖民扩张三者有机地结合起来。三者紧密结合、相互促进,成为英帝国强大、繁荣的重要基石,也是英国在同西班牙、荷兰、法国争夺海上霸权的斗争中立于不败之地的关键。     

Quantifying Potential Health Impacts of Cadmium in Cigarettes on Smoker Risk of Lung Cancer: A Portfolio-of-Mechanisms Approach

This article introduces an approach to estimating the uncertain potential effects on lung cancer risk of removing a particular constituent, cadmium (Cd), from cigarette smoke, given the useful but incomplete scientific information available about its modes of action. The approach considers normal cell proliferation; DNA repair inhibition in normal cells affected by initiating events; proliferation, promotion, and progression of initiated cells; and death or sparing of initiated and malignant cells as they are further transformed to become fully tumorigenic. Rather than estimating unmeasured model parameters by curve fitting to epidemiological or animal experimental tumor data, we attempt rough estimates of parameters based on their biological interpretations and comparison to corresponding genetic polymorphism data. The resulting parameter estimates are admittedly uncertain and approximate, but they suggest a portfolio approach to estimating impacts of removing Cd that gives usefully robust conclusions. This approach views Cd as creating a portfolio of uncertain health impacts that can be expressed as biologically independent relative risk factors having clear mechanistic interpretations. Because Cd can act through many distinct biological mechanisms, it appears likely (subjective probability greater than 40%) that removing Cd from cigarette smoke would reduce smoker risks of lung cancer by at least 10%, although it is possible (consistent with what is known) that the true effect could be much larger or smaller. Conservative estimates and assumptions made in this calculation suggest that the true impact could be greater for some smokers. This conclusion appears to be robust to many scientific uncertainties about Cd and smoking effects.     

偏微分方程的非线性变换和精确解

利用截属的Painlev'e展开式、非线性变换和可积的微分方程，可以求出一类非线性偏微分方程的自Backlund变换和它的精确解，孤立波解。波动方程、Hirota-Satsuma方程组和非线性色散与耗散方程作为例子来说明这一方法。     

耐热日用陶瓷坯体及其低热膨胀性

阐明了高档锂质耐热日用陶瓷研究的目的和意义,通过实验研究获得了具有良好抗热震性能的锂质耐热陶瓷材料,对材料的显微结构和主要物理性能分别进行了分析和测定,并对其低热膨胀性进行了深入研究.     

Confidence Intervals Based on Local Linear Smoother

Point-wise confidence intervals for a non-parametric regression function in conjunction with the popular local linear smoother are considered. The confidence intervals are based on the asymptotic normal distribution of the local linear smoother. Their coverage accuracy is evaluated by developing Edgeworth expansion for the coverage probability. It is found that the coverage error near the boundary of the support of the regression function is of a larger order than that in the interior, which implies that the local linear smoother is not adaptive to the boundary in terms of coverage. This is quite unexpected as the local linear smoother is adaptive to the boundary in terms of the mean squared error.     

经济不发达地区多系统图书馆协调发展模式初探

多系统图书馆协调发展的前提是建立在一种利益均衡机制上的横向联合，针对不同地区的经济发展状况而呈现出多种表象，如何把握本地区多系统图书馆之间的利益均衡，需要建立哪些激励机制和运转机制，同协调之后所要达到的预期效果密切相关。     

沿海地区集聚式城市化地域扩张模式及优化

结合我国长三角、珠三角和环渤海湾新型城市化模式的具体案例，分析集聚式城市发展的动力机制和地域扩张模式，认为产业集聚已成为推动沿海区域城市化进程的重要驱动力。论题针对沿海区域集聚式城市化模式存在的问题提出了具体的对策建议。     

求解SEM极点的Kuhn法

在研究瞬变电磁场的奇点展开法中,散射物体的自然频率(极点)是一个非常重要的参数。以往人们都用迭代法或围线和分法计算物体的自然频率。本文采用Kuhn法,在不需任何初值假设的情况下,用不多的计算时间求出了精度很好的细线导体的极点。