“烘云托月”与“说不可说”冯友兰新理学“负方法”的关学阐释

在冯友兰新理学关于方法论的论述中，其用“负方法”对形而上学的“讲述”对美学有着深刻的启示意义，甚至可以说它本身就涵蕴着丰富的关学意味。道家的方法、禅宗的方法和诗的言说，是“负方法”的三种典型言说方式，这三种言说形式具有美学阐释的可能性，表现在直觉性、神秘性、超越性和浑整性4个方面。     

Discrete Linnik Weibull distribution

Abstract

We introduce a new family of distributions using truncated discrete Linnik distribution. This family is a rich family of distributions which includes many important families of distributions such as Marshall–Olkin family of distributions, family of distributions generated through truncated negative binomial distribution, family of distributions generated through truncated discrete Mittag–Leffler distribution etc. Some properties of the new family of distributions are derived. A particular case of the family, a five parameter generalization of Weibull distribution, namely discrete Linnik Weibull distribution is given special attention. This distribution is a generalization of many distributions, such as extended exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, Weibull truncated negative binomial, generalized exponential truncated negative binomial, Marshall-Olkin extended Weibull, Marshall–Olkin generalized exponential, exponential truncated negative binomial, Marshall–Olkin exponential and generalized exponential. The shape properties, moments, median, distribution of order statistics, stochastic ordering and stress–strength properties of the new generalized Weibull distribution are derived. The unknown parameters of the distribution are estimated using maximum likelihood method. The discrete Linnik Weibull distribution is fitted to a survival time data set and it is shown that the distribution is more appropriate than other competitive models.     

Female Labor Supply,Human Capital,and Welfare Reform

We estimate a dynamic model of employment, human capital accumulation—including education, and savings for women in the United Kingdom, exploiting tax and benefit reforms, and use it to analyze the effects of welfare policy. We find substantial elasticities for labor supply and particularly for lone mothers. Returns to experience, which are important in determining the longer‐term effects of policy, increase with education, but experience mainly accumulates when in full‐time employment. Tax credits are welfare improving in the U.K., increase lone‐mother labor supply and marginally reduce educational attainment, but the employment effects do not extend beyond the period of eligibility. Marginal increases in tax credits improve welfare more than equally costly increases in income support or tax cuts.     

Cautious Expected Utility and the Certainty Effect

Many violations of the independence axiom of expected utility can be traced to subjects' attraction to risk‐free prospects. The key axiom in this paper, negative certainty independence ([Dillenberger, 2010]), formalizes this tendency. Our main result is a utility representation of all preferences over monetary lotteries that satisfy negative certainty independence together with basic rationality postulates. Such preferences can be represented as if the agent were unsure of how to evaluate a given lottery p; instead, she has in mind a set of possible utility functions over outcomes and displays a cautious behavior: she computes the certainty equivalent of p with respect to each possible function in the set and picks the smallest one. The set of utilities is unique in a well defined sense. We show that our representation can also be derived from a “cautious” completion of an incomplete preference relation.     

项目制研究的现状与新路径

项目制作为一种新的国家治理体制,在中国经济与社会发展中发挥着日益深广的影响力。文献考察发现,国内研究围绕五个主要议题展开,研究成果较集中于近六年内;国外研究也有一定基础。既有研究尚存在两方面突出问题：一是研究视角有缺失,偏重宏观层面和政府视角而忽视了基层村庄社会的回应;二是研究议题失均衡,对项目制负面效应发生机理和防范机制研究还很薄弱。“村庄回应”是项目制研究值得重视的一条新路径,以此路径切入,可探寻“项目进村”的实践逻辑与问题成因,是有利于找到优化基层治理格局、提升项目制实践成效并防范“项目进村”负面效应的有效方法。     

Estimating Abundance from Presence–Absence Maps via a Paired Negative‐Binomial Model

The estimation of abundance from presence–absence data is an intriguing problem in applied statistics. The classical Poisson model makes strong independence and homogeneity assumptions and in practice generally underestimates the true abundance. A controversial ad hoc method based on negative‐binomial counts (Am. Nat.) has been empirically successful but lacks theoretical justification. We first present an alternative estimator of abundance based on a paired negative binomial model that is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. A quadruple negative binomial extension is also developed, which yields the previous ad hoc approach and resolves the controversy in the literature. We examine the performance of the estimators in a simulation study and estimate the abundance of 44 tree species in a permanent forest plot.     

扶贫政策的负外部性及其化解

在脱贫攻坚中,对重点贫困地区的精确瞄准与偏向投入,在一定程度上对非贫困县、非贫困村与非贫困户产生了必然的政策负外部性,表现为县域脱贫结构失衡、村庄帮扶悬崖效应与边缘人群争贫风险。究其原由,在公共政策过程中,竞争性的政策汲取、排他性的政策分配与分割性的政策评价是负外部性的三种发生机理。为此需要建立上下融合减贫机制,探索社区主导发展模式,拓展村民赋权参与空间,通过政策纠正、调适以消解和弥补政策负效应,强化政治决策与分配的正义性。     

输入模态对认知负荷及听力成绩的影响

探讨了输入模态对学生认知负荷和听力理解的影响。90名来自两个平行班的大学英语学生被平均分为三个小组参加实验:文本输入组,声音输入组,文本和声音输入组。文本组的听力题目用文本呈现,声音组的听力题目仅用声音呈现,文本和声音组的题目则是采用文本和声音双重模态呈现。认知负荷量表结果和听力测试结果显示不同模态的听力输入形式对听力成绩有显著影响:文本组学生的成绩最高,其次是文本加音频组,音频输入组的成绩最低。认知负荷量表结果显示文本组的认知负荷最低,然后是文本加音频组,音频输入组的认知负荷最高。认知负荷与听力成绩的相关分析显示负荷程度与听力成绩呈负相关。研究结果对听力教学有较好的借鉴作用。     

On a characterization of the dispersion matrix based on the properties of regression

This paper provides a partial solution to a problem posed by J. Neyman (1965) regarding the characterization of multivariate negative binomial distribution based on the properties of regression. It is shown that some of the properties of regression characterize the form of the nonsingular dispersion matrix of the parent distribution, which, interestingly enough, corresponds to only two types viz. those of positive and negative multivariate binomial distributions.     

Hazard functions and life distributions in discrete time

The problem of studying lifelength distributions in discrete time is considered for certain forms of hazard functions. A class of life distributions that consists of the geometric, the Waring and the negative hypergeometric distributions is shown to result when the hazard function is inversely proportional to some linear function of time.