Bayesian robustness of the compound Poisson distribution under bidimensional prior: an application to the collective risk model

The distribution of the aggregate claims in one year plays an important role in Actuarial Statistics for computing, for example, insurance premiums when both the number and size of the claims must be implemented into the model. When the number of claims follows a Poisson distribution the aggregated distribution is called the compound Poisson distribution. In this article we assume that the claim size follows an exponential distribution and later we make an extensive study of this model by assuming a bidimensional prior distribution for the parameters of the Poisson and exponential distribution with marginal gamma. This study carries us to obtain expressions for net premiums, marginal and posterior distributions in terms of some well-known special functions used in statistics. Later, a Bayesian robustness study of this model is made. Bayesian robustness on bidimensional models was deeply treated in the 1990s, producing numerous results, but few applications dealing with this problem can be found in the literature.     

网络时代的消费特征、企业变革和企业文化

新的传媒革命所造成的网络时代,至少形成了不同于传统社会的六大消费特征,并使得企业面貌出现系列的变革,企业在这个动态节点的网络社会中将重新洗牌。网络时代的企业要在这个时代保持其核心竞争力,以适应新的竞争环境,需要建立新的企业文化战略和企业文化构架。     

同股同权同价模式解决国有股流通

解决国有股流通的问题 (实际上包括不能流通的国有股和企业法人股两部分 ,以下同 )必将引发我国证券市场上一次深刻的变革 ,将对证券市场产生极其深远影响。我们本着公平公正的原则提出了同股同权同价的定价模式 ,选取了几个典型的样本进行了处理 ,计算了全面流通对整个市场的影响 ,并与净资产的定价模式进行了比较分析。     

Bayesian elastic net single index quantile regression

Single index model conditional quantile regression is proposed in order to overcome the dimensionality problem in nonparametric quantile regression. In the proposed method, the Bayesian elastic net is suggested for single index quantile regression for estimation and variables selection. The Gaussian process prior is considered for unknown link function and a Gibbs sampler algorithm is adopted for posterior inference. The results of the simulation studies and numerical example indicate that our propose method, BENSIQReg, offers substantial improvements over two existing methods, SIQReg and BSIQReg. The BENSIQReg has consistently show a good convergent property, has the least value of median of mean absolute deviations and smallest standard deviations, compared to the other two methods.     

Navigating health care: brokerage and access for undocumented Latino immigrants under the 2010 Affordable Care Act

ABSTRACT

Brokerage is a prominent mechanism that explains access for Latino immigrants to many American institutions. However, few studies examine the dual nature of brokerage in answering questions on access to health care for undocumented Latino immigrants. The growing importance of Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs) and ethnic navigators connecting immigrants to health care under the 2010 Affordable Care Act calls attention to the duality of brokers and its role in access. The study draws from 44 in-depth interviews with providers, clinic directors, navigators, and immigrant patients and two years of fieldwork in FQHCs in California’s San Francisco Bay Area (2011–2013). Results show that brokers enable access through coaching and myth-busting but they also hinder it through scrutiny and bureaucratic filtering. The widespread dependence on brokerage, I argue, leads to ersatz brokerage, such as when providers navigate the health-care system for the undocumented without the appropriate linguistic resources or coordination. Furthermore, the study shows that the duality in brokerage generates misinformation, churning, and alienation. Understanding the relational processes that both include and exclude vulnerable populations from needed services enhances theories of immigrant integration and can help design more efficient policies and address inequalities related to documentation status.     

当代中国网络民族主义的社会政治功能透视

网络民族主义之所以勃兴,是与当代中国社会的深刻变化以及其它社会环境因素的综合效应紧密关联的;它非但以其崭新形态饱受关注,而且对当下社会生活的影响日益显著,并且非自觉地成为我国社会主义民主政治建设的推动力量,它尤其在促进公民意识生成、扩大民众政治参与和推动市民社会建构等层面上发挥了独特作用。     

Design and implementation methodology based on Petri net formalism of flexible manufacturing systems control

This paper presents an aided design methodology of flexible manufacturing system control with a view to industrial implementation. The approach considered through a modelling phase, the a validation phase by simulation and finally a distributed implementation phase. In the modelling phase, based on the Petri net formalism, we demonstrate the hierarchical aspect which separates the part flow control and the product resource control. In addition, we emphasize generic aspects which allow us to use an object-oriented approach. These aspects and the set of modelled objects are directly used in the simulation and production phases after an automatic translation in an implementation language (ADA in our case). In consequence, the distributed location for those two phases is well facilitated from the viewpoint of the approach used.     

Ranking paired contestants

The ranking of paired contestants (players) after a series of contests is difficult when every player does not play every other player. In the 1975 JASA Mark Thompson presented a maximum likelihood solution based on the assumption that the probability of any one player defeating any other is a function only of the difference in their ranks. Here the linear approximation to that likelihood is shown to lead to a nonparametric measure of the efficacy of the ranking, called the net difference in ranks (NDR) , which is the sum of the differences in ranks of the paired players in the observed contests that agree with the ranking minus the sum of the differences in ranks in the observed contests that disagree with the ranking (upsets) . The subject is part of a large literature that has been consolidated by H.A. David in The Method of Paired Comparisons (1963, 1988). The method was introduced by the psychophysicist Fechner in 1860 and has been widely applied to sensory testing,     

英语网络语言理据刍议

英语网语成因复杂,既受社会因素、心理因素、黑客因素影响,又同人类认知及语言自身发展规律密不可分。深层次探析该语言现象的理据,为研究汉语网语及未来语言的发展趋势提供参考。     

The reality of net capital gains and annual profit on NZ primary producing businesses: data from a recent survey of all farm types

ABSTRACT

Annual net cash returns and net capital gains provide farmers with their actual and potential monetary rewards, respectively. This article reports on a national farm survey showing both actual and potential returns, on average, are not as high as might be imagined. This is supported by the findings of earlier studies and has implications for rural societies and their associated economies. Data on income, expenses and profit is presented as is data on farm value changes over the life of each farm. The information is adjusted for inflation to provide ‘real’ data. The profit and net capital gain figures are divided into groupings based on a range of criteria such as total farm capital, and labour compliment as a reflection of farm size. Statistically significant differences occur for some groupings such as farm type and farm size.