Sensitivity,uncertainty, and decision analyses in the prioritization of research

The evaluation of hazards from complex, large scale, technologically advanced systems often requires the construction of computer implemented mathematical models. These models are used to evaluate the safety of the systems and to evaluate the consequences of modifications to the systems. These evaluations, however, are normally surrounded by significant uncertainties related to the uncertainty inherent in natural phenomena such as the weather and those related to uncertainties in the parameters and models used in the evaluation.

Another use of these models is to evaluate strategies for improving information used in the modeling process itself. While sensitivity analysis is useful in defining variables in the model that are important, uncertainty analysis provides a tool for assessing the importance of uncertainty about these variables. A third complementary technique, is decision analysis. It provides a methodology for explicitly evaluating and ranking potential improvements to the model. Its use in the development of information gathering strategies for a nuclear waste repository are discussed in this paper.     

汉语新词语现状及共管理策略刍议

语言是随着经济、社会、文化的发展而不断发展的。我们所处的时代瞬息万变，汉语新词语不断涌现。对此，学界存在着或否定或欢迎等不同态度。我们认为，吐故纳新是汉语的一大特性，我们应坚持开放宽容而又积极规范的态度，一方面大胆包容新词语不断出现的现象，一方面采取一定的措施加强语言的规范管理，处理好语言共性与个性的关系，使汉语发展既保持稳定性又富于创造性。     

构建开放型经济新体制打造大连市对外开放新优势

改革开放以来，大连市确立并坚持实施“外向牵动”、“开放引领”等经济发展战略，逐步形成了全方位多层次宽领域的对外开放格局，初步建立起开放型经济体系。依托这一体系，全市国际贸易快速发展，出口商品结构不断优化，境外投资持续增加，服务贸易逐渐扩大。大连市要引导开放向纵深发展，必须在强化原有重点园区开放效应的基础上，抓住自由贸易区建设的机遇，构建对外开放新平台，促成梯次开放格局。“构建开放型经济新体制”是党的十八届三中全会部署的改革重点任务之一。大连市如何立足区位优势，抢抓战略机遇，进一步优化投资和贸易管理体制，建立健全相关政策体系，培育有序、透明、法治化的营商环境，引导开放向纵深发展，赢取对外开放的新优势，成为大连市全面落实三中全会改革部署的重要任务。     

Moment‐Independent Sensitivity Analysis Using Copula

In risk assessment, the moment‐independent sensitivity analysis (SA) technique for reducing the model uncertainty has attracted a great deal of attention from analysts and practitioners. It aims at measuring the relative importance of an individual input, or a set of inputs, in determining the uncertainty of model output by looking at the entire distribution range of model output. In this article, along the lines of Plischke et al., we point out that the original moment‐independent SA index (also called delta index) can also be interpreted as the dependence measure between model output and input variables, and introduce another moment‐independent SA index (called extended delta index) based on copula. Then, nonparametric methods for estimating the delta and extended delta indices are proposed. Both methods need only a set of samples to compute all the indices; thus, they conquer the problem of the “curse of dimensionality.” At last, an analytical test example, a risk assessment model, and the levelE model are employed for comparing the delta and the extended delta indices and testing the two calculation methods. Results show that the delta and the extended delta indices produce the same importance ranking in these three test examples. It is also shown that these two proposed calculation methods dramatically reduce the computational burden.     

煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故单危险源风险度量模型研究

本文研究了煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故危险源的分类,把危险源划分为人的不安全行为、机器设备不安全状态、环境不安全特征和管理缺陷四大类,并根据煤矿现场调查各类危险源的数据以及相应数学方法的特点,提出煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故人、机器设备(物)、环境、管理四类危险源的风险度量方法,在此基础上构建四类危险源的风险度量模型。研究表明,危险源的风险度量模型由风险发生的可能性、危险源重要度以及事故导致的损失构成;危险源风险发生的可能性,在具体应用中可以采用各类危险源的不可靠度、故障率等来衡量;危险源在事故中的重要度可以通过分析事故故障树种要素结构重要性获取。根据风险评价的结果,可以对危险源进行分级排序,从而为煤矿事故单危险源的控制提供依据。     

Improving Risk Management: From Lame Excuses to Principled Practice

The three classic pillars of risk analysis are risk assessment (how big is the risk and how sure can we be?), risk management (what shall we do about it?), and risk communication (what shall we say about it, to whom, when, and how?). We propose two complements as important parts of these three bases: risk attribution (who or what addressable conditions actually caused an accident or loss?) and learning from experience about risk reduction (what works, and how well?). Failures in complex systems usually evoke blame, often with insufficient attention to root causes of failure, including some aspects of the situation, design decisions, or social norms and culture. Focusing on blame, however, can inhibit effective learning, instead eliciting excuses to deflect attention and perceived culpability. Productive understanding of what went wrong, and how to do better, thus requires moving past recrimination and excuses. This article identifies common blame‐shifting “lame excuses” for poor risk management. These generally contribute little to effective improvements and may leave real risks and preventable causes unaddressed. We propose principles from risk and decision sciences and organizational design to improve results. These start with organizational leadership. More specifically, they include: deliberate testing and learning—especially from near‐misses and accident precursors; careful causal analysis of accidents; risk quantification; candid expression of uncertainties about costs and benefits of risk‐reduction options; optimization of tradeoffs between gathering additional information and immediate action; promotion of safety culture; and mindful allocation of people, responsibilities, and resources to reduce risks. We propose that these principles provide sound foundations for improving successful risk management.     

How to Evaluate Government Performance while Building a Rule of Law Government in China*

Building a law-based government is a central element of the comprehensive framework for promoting the rule of law in China, while using evaluation to catalyze growth is in line with the incentive principle of management studies. Since China started to implement reform and opening up over thirty years ago, rule of law development and organizational evaluation have gone through several stages, each with different characteristics. Efforts to build a law-based government have met with success, but what the country now has is essentially still goal-oriented assessment. At present, this suffers from the lack of a clear goal orientation or definition of functions, an imperfect technical system and unsound motivation mechanisms, not to mention the practical problems of each government department going its own way, duplicating evaluations or being left rudderless. Drawing on a combination of value rationality and instrumental rationality and using government performance evaluation to promote the building of a law-based government not only conforms to the spirit of the rule of law and value rationality in government performance, but also strengthens the role of evaluation as an instrument for organizational management. Therefore, we need to create new evaluation theories, expand public participation, introducing diversified evaluating entities, improve technical systems, strengthen institutional buildup, and foster a performance-based culture. In addition, replacing goal-oriented assessment with performance evaluation will help the emergence of a new discipline—the performance evaluation of rule of law government, thus promoting multidisciplinary efforts to integrate and create new public administration theories in China.     

轻与重：美丽的悔——读张枣《镜中》

张枣很早就开始尝试对古典诗学传统的吸收和借鉴,并进行了比较成功的试验,《镜中》便是一例。通感和＂词义借用＂使＂悔＂变得美丽轻盈,人称转换造成了心理空间腾挪,＂镜中＂这一出色运用的意象统摄了全诗,三者共同织就一个复杂的文本。这些技巧帮助平衡了诗中的轻与重,取得了良好的效果。     

Survival in the U.S. petroleum refining industry

Of the 324 petroleum refineries operating in the U.S. in 1982, only 149 were still in the hands of their original owners in 2007. Using duration analysis, this paper explores why refineries change ownership or shut down. Plants are more likely to ‘survive’ with their original owners if they are older or larger, but less likely if the owner is a major integrated firm, or the refinery is a more technologically complex one. This latter result differs from existing research on the issue. This paper also presents a split population model to relax the general assumption of the duration model that all refiners will eventually close down; the empirical results show that the split population model converges on a standard hazard model; the log-logistic version fits best. Finally, a multinomial logit model is estimated to analyze the factors that influence the refinery plant's choices of staying open, closing, or changing ownership. Plant size, age and technology usage have positive impacts on the likelihood that a refinery will stay open, or change ownership (rather than close down).     

充分利用网络技术全面提高会计控制质量

e7T中华财会网网络技术的发展对企业内部会计控制产生了深远的影响,文章从网络环境下内部会计控制呈现的新特点着手,分析了网络环境下内部会计控制系统所面临的风险,对存在的问题及其成因作了尝试性的探讨,提出了完善、加强内部会计控制的建议,以期达到提高网络环境下内部会计控制质量的目的。