人口普查覆盖误差估计方法综述

人口普查工作的质量主要体现在覆盖误差的规模上.人口统计学家创建了估计人口普查覆盖误差的方法.有些方法利用独立于人口普查本身的信息,另外一些方法则利用人口行政记录的信息.由于每种方法都有其特定的形成背景和适用范围,因而没有适合于所有国家和地区的通用方法.通过对美国、新西兰、澳大利亚、英国和中国的人口普查覆盖误差估计方法进行了较为详细的介绍,说明了这些方法的使用情况.研究表明,任何一种估计方法都有其局限性,需要不断改进与完善.     

基于GIS的宁夏人口经济压力空间分布研究

空间分析是深入探索空间特征的重要技术,因此作者利用空间分析中的主成分分析方法和空间自相关分析对宁夏人口经济压力分类及其分布关系进行了深入探索,结果表明,宁夏人口经济压力从北部向南部逐渐增大,在空间分布关系上人口经济压力呈现明显的组团模式,北部区域以银川为核心呈低—低关联模式,南部区域以原州区为核心呈高—高关联模式。     

Introducing a Phobia Program into a Community Mental Health Center

No abstract available for this article.     

Daily reports of distress: Not for women only

Abstract

A context-dependence paradigm was developed for research into effects of the menstrual cycle in women. This involved the investigation of situational effects on self-reported distress in both men and women. For 35 consecutive days, 25 women and 36 men working in two occupations that varied in degree of situational stress completed Body Awareness Questionnaires (modified menstrual distress questionnaires) and daily subjective stress ratings. After controlling for contraceptive use, age range, and percentage of body fat, the following variables were selected for a multiple regression analysis as predictors of distress: (a) job stress, (b) feminine values, (c) life stress, (d) subjective stress, (e) type of job, (f) sex, (g) job experience, and (h) history of menstrual distress. Women working in the high-stress job (military police) reported significantly more distress than all the other groups. Life stress was identified as the dominant predictor of distress. In a separate analysis of daily distress scores and menstrual cycle phases for all the women, there was no interaction between the type of job and the menstrual cycle phase on reports of distress. A similar analysis of the effects on sex and shift revealed shift effects in distress for men but not women. Sources of variability for both sexes (shift-work rotation and cycle phase) are discussed.     

The recruitment and selection of hospital medical consultants

Abstract

The literature on selection has been dominated in recent decades by the ‘prediction’ paradigm. Such an approach requires a substantial number of positions to be filled in order to compute validity coefficients. There are other approaches, using a different paradigm, when concentrated on adjusting the organization and the employee. Here careful analysis of job demands is essential. This article describes such an analysis, taking the medical consultant as an example. The method can be used in an iterative way. It is useful when one has to work with small numbers of positions.     

An International Pooled Analysis for Obtaining a Benchmark Dose for Environmental Lead Exposure in Children

Lead is a recognized neurotoxicant, but estimating effects at the lowest measurable levels is difficult. An international pooled analysis of data from seven cohort studies reported an inverse and supra‐linear relationship between blood lead concentrations and IQ scores in children. The lack of a clear threshold presents a challenge to the identification of an acceptable level of exposure. The benchmark dose (BMD) is defined as the dose that leads to a specific known loss. As an alternative to elusive thresholds, the BMD is being used increasingly by regulatory authorities. Using the pooled data, this article presents BMD results and applies different statistical techniques in the analysis of multistudy data. The calculations showed only a limited variation between studies in the steepness of the dose‐response functions. BMD results were quite robust to modeling assumptions with the best fitting models yielding lower confidence limits (BMDLs) of about 0.1–1.0 μ g/dL for the dose leading to a loss of one IQ point. We conclude that current allowable blood lead concentrations need to be lowered and further prevention efforts are needed to protect children from lead toxicity.     

Modeling Imbalanced Economic Recovery Following a Natural Disaster Using Input‐Output Analysis

Input‐output analysis is frequently used in studies of large‐scale weather‐related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10–30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery.     

Catastrophe Risk Models for Evaluating Disaster Risk Reduction Investments in Developing Countries

Major natural disasters in recent years have had high human and economic costs, and triggered record high postdisaster relief from governments and international donors. Given the current economic situation worldwide, selecting the most effective disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures is critical. This is especially the case for low‐ and middle‐income countries, which have suffered disproportionally more economic and human losses from disasters. This article discusses a methodology that makes use of advanced probabilistic catastrophe models to estimate benefits of DRR measures. We apply such newly developed models to generate estimates for hurricane risk on residential structures on the island of St. Lucia, and earthquake risk on residential structures in Istanbul, Turkey, as two illustrative case studies. The costs and economic benefits for selected risk reduction measures are estimated taking account of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We conclude by emphasizing the advantages and challenges of catastrophe model‐based cost‐benefit analyses for DRR in developing countries.     

Efficiency improvement from multiple perspectives: An application to Japanese banking industry

The current study focuses on efficiency improvement for banking systems from multiple perspectives, which have different definitions of input/output about various attributes of a banking system. In this research we utilize data envelopment analysis (DEA) and Nash bargaining game (NBG) theory to improve inefficient banks in order to: (1) Make the inefficient bank be the state of Pareto Optimality for multiple perspectives, which can avoid discontentment of some perspectives. (2) Improve a bank by changing its attributes and provide various improving schemes for decision makers. A numerical case study of Japanese banks is also given to show the results of equilibrium solution from multiple perspectives.     

英语中继语句法顺序探讨

中继语这一理论虽已广为语言学界所接受,并有学者对其动态规律进行了调查与研究,但到目前为止,目的十分明确的研究还只是刚起步。为了给汉语背景下第二语言习得理论和目前正在蓬勃展开的外语教学大纲、教材教法的革新提供依据,本文收集了大一、大二、硕士研究生三个自然班的英语作文,依据EA理论与IT理论对其进行了探索性的描述性研究,旨在从结构上揭示出大学生习得英语的顺序。