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951.
Limited information bayesian analysis of a structural coefficient in a simultaneous equations system
Hiroki Tsurumi 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2013,42(5):1103-1120
An analytical expression is obtained for the marginal posterior density for a structural coefficient in a simultaneous equations system based on a limited information Bayesian analysis. A con- ditional posterior density is obtained given reduced form para- meters. This conditional posterior density is in univariate student t form. Numerical examples suggest that the conditional density hasa tighter distribution around the posterior mean than the unconditional density when the correlation between the endo- genous variables and the structural error term is high. 相似文献
952.
《Journal of women & aging》2013,25(4):43-58
Two diseases, osteoporosis and osteoarthritis, are responsible for a majority of the chronic musculoskeletal pain that older women experience. Osteoporosis is the metabolic bone disease most common in older women and is responsible for fractures, kyphosis, and chronic pain. Osteoarthritis, the most commonly diagnosed musculoskeletal problem in older women, causes degeneration of the weight-bearing joints in the body, resulting in limited function and chronic pain. In this paper, these and other common disorders are briefly described and typical coping strategies used by older women in pain are reviewed. In addition, potential multidisciplinary treatment regimens are discussed. 相似文献
953.
《Mobilities》2013,8(1):25-50
This paper takes as its point of departure the expanding scholarly interest in issues of mobility and movement. It argues that movement is not only a physical activity which is entangled in power and meaning but is fundamentally discursively constituted. Through discussions of theory and of three examples taken from the Danish media, it is shown that the study of movement cannot be separated from that of discursive power. Access to and control over physical movement is unequally distributed. However, so is access to and control over assessing which activities can meaningfully be given the label ‘movement’ in the first place. Understanding movement in this way leads us to ask how various activities are given the status of ‘movement’, as well as how they are given meaning and importance, by whom and with what consequences. This involves asking how the poles between which movement takes place are themselves identified; how the distinction and the relationship between inside and outside are designated; and how distinctions between movement and stasis inform political and cultural struggle. 相似文献
955.
通过分析实际供水管网系统的特征,对管网工况分析所涉及的几个尚未解决的计算问题进行了研究,提出了用计算机进行工况分析的思路与框架,为管网运行调度及研究管网水质模型打下了良好基础. 相似文献
956.
This paper concerns organizational safety culture and the structure or architecture of employee attitudes to safety as part of that culture. It begins by reviewing the somewhat scant literature relevant to this area, and then reports a study, conducted in a European company, which collected and factor analysed data on employee attitudes to safety. The framework provided for the study was that offered by Purdham (1984), and the results suggested that employees' attitudes to safety, within this company (across occupation/occupational level and country), could be mapped By five orthogonal factors: personal scepticism, individual responsibility, the safeness of the work environment, the effectiveness of arrangements for safety, and personal immunity. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed, and attention is drawn to their subsequent use in an intervention to enhance safety culture within the organization by attacking supervisors' attitudes to safety. 相似文献
957.
Treatment of Uncertainty in Performance Assessments for Complex Systems 总被引:13,自引:0,他引:13
Jon C. Helton 《Risk analysis》1994,14(4):483-511
When viewed at a high level, performance assessments (PAs) for complex systems involve two types of uncertainty: stochastic uncertainty, which arises because the system under study can behave in many different ways, and subjective uncertainty, which arises from a lack of knowledge about quantities required within the computational implementation of the PA. Stochastic uncertainty is typically incorporated into a PA with an experimental design based on importance sampling and leads to the final results of the PA being expressed as a complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF). Subjective uncertainty is usually treated with Monte Carlo techniques and leads to a distribution of CCDFs. This presentation discusses the use of the Kaplan/Garrick ordered triple representation for risk in maintaining a distinction between stochastic and subjective uncertainty in PAs for complex systems. The topics discussed include (1) the definition of scenarios and the calculation of scenario probabilities and consequences, (2) the separation of subjective and stochastic uncertainties, (3) the construction of CCDFs required in comparisons with regulatory standards (e.g., 40 CFR Part 191, Subpart B for the disposal of radioactive waste), and (4) the performance of uncertainty and sensitivity studies. Results obtained in a preliminary PA for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the MACCS reactor accident consequence analysis model, and the NUREG-1150 probabilistic risk assessments are used for illustration. 相似文献
958.
959.
M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell 《Risk analysis》1985,5(4):277-288
A probabilistic method is presented to evaluate the economic value of fire monitoring by closed circuit TV camera in petroleum refineries. The proposed model is restricted to the analysis of risk reduction in an area where fires can be caused either by pump failure or by failure of valves and lines. The benefits come from reducing the time during which the fire grows undetected. Fire growth and expected values of losses are analyzed by a Markov model that includes five phases: (1) active undetected growth, (2) detection, (3) fire growth at the beginning of the firemen's intervention, (4) fire control, and (5) fire extinction. The results (e.g., the expected net present value of the investment) show that the proposed monitoring investment is attractive for an illustrative example. 相似文献
960.
Vincent T. Covello 《Risk analysis》1987,7(2):131-139
This paper provides an overview of decision analysis and its use in risk management decision making. The paper discusses the distinctive characteristics of decision analysis and compares these characteristics with those of its principal alternative—cost–benefit analysis. The paper also discusses each of the steps in a decision analysis and the strengths and limitations of the method. 相似文献