社会判断中启发式与偏差的再认识

文章对判断决策研究范式发展的三个阶段中启发式与偏差的地位进行了小结,从中引出社会判断的轴心和焦点——启发式与偏差,并结合新近研究对各种启发式与偏差进行了分类与总结,给偏差以客观评价,通过对偏差与错误在结果指向性、发展性、普遍性和适应性上存在差异的分析。论证了偏差不等于错误的观点。     

管理学术界与企业界脱节的问题分析

讨论学术界与企业界脱节的实质是理论与实践是否脱节的问题,管理学科的特性决定了管理理论来自于实践,不应该存在理论与实践脱节的问题。从这一基本问题入手,结合教学科研经历,分析理论与实践脱节的原因,并提出基本的改进思路,目的是能够更好地促进学术界与企业界的互动,从我国企业管理实践中科学地提炼管理理论。     

Smooth estimation of a reliability function in ranked set sampling

The authors develop a kernel-based estimator of a dynamic reliability measure for use with independent ranked set samples. The estimator is in the form of a ratio, whose numerator and denominator are shown to outperform their rivals based on simple random samples. Some asymptotic properties about the proposed estimator are also established. Simulation studies reveal finite-sample properties of the estimator. The technique is finally applied on an agricultural data set.     

中国湿地保护立法评判

中国迄今没有国家层面的、以湿地整体为保护对象的专门立法,这既是湿地保护管理面临困境的主要根源,也是导致湿地持续恶化和减少的主要原因之一.改变中国湿地保护立法不足的当务之急是将国家层面的湿地立法提上议程,其前提是先行制定和完善湿地保护的行政法规和地方性法规,具体方式是依据行政法规与地方性法规及其司法经验制定国家层面的湿地专门立法.作为这种改变的必要条件,要有步骤地尽快消解中国湿地立法现状的支撑基础.     

On Doing Research in a Clinical Setting

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of a stand-alone personalized normative feedback (PNF) intervention targeting misperceptions of gambling among college students. Participants: Undergraduates (N = 136; 55% male) who reported gambling in the past 30 days were recruited between September 2011 and March 2012. Methods: Using a randomized clinical trial design, participants were assigned to receive either PNF or an attention control task. In addition to self-report, this study used 2 computer-based risk tasks framed as “gambling opportunities” to assess cognitive and behavioral change at 1 week post intervention. Results: After 1 week, participants receiving PNF showed a marked decrease in perception of other students’ gambling, and evinced lower risk-taking performance on 2 analog measures of gambling. Conclusions: Changes in both self-reported perceived norms and analog gambling behavior suggest that a single, stand-alone PNF intervention may modify gambling among college students. Whether it can impact gambling outside of the laboratory remains untested.     

Professional Decision Making on Elder Abuse: Systematic Narrative Review

Social work and health care professionals internationally are recognizing the need to understand and respond to the abuse of older people. Policy and guidance have identified processes but definitions of key concepts remain problematic, and the literature suggests that practitioners and agencies have little insight or guidance for decision making. Nine bibliographic databases were searched for studies on professional decision making regarding abuse of older people. Relevant studies retrieved were appraised for quality using explicit criteria. The findings of the 19 articles meeting the inclusion criteria were synthesised using a structured narrative approach. Common themes identified were abuse factors, situational factors, and broader contextual factors. Abuse factors relating to risk levels and client vulnerability were central; age, gender, and health status were considered as key indicators of vulnerability. The opinion of adult protection workers about the potential effectiveness of their intervention was a factor in deciding about responding to alleged or suspected abuse. Professionals struggled with complex ethical dilemmas created by elder abuse, particularly when the victim did not want an investigation. Making objective judgements was difficult when faced with complex family and contextual factors. A structured approach to narrative synthesis of a diverse range of studies retrieved through an explicit search and inclusion process provided a useful summary of key issues for practice and identified gaps in the research literature.     

论法官说理义务的障碍及解决

为了树立司法权威,提高司法公信力,2012年新修订的《民事诉讼法》明确规定了法官说理义务。这需要从两方面贯彻实施:一方面,应当修正限制法官说理的司法政策,从而塑造良好的制度环境;另一方面,应当对判决书的样式做相应的调整,从以法官展示事实、适用法律为中心转向以说服当事人接受判决结果为中心。     

三端点区间数互反判断矩阵的排序方法研究

本文研究了三端点区间数互反判断矩阵的一致性和排序方法。在三端点区间数互反判断矩阵完全一致性概念的基础上,首次将矩阵特征向量思想引入三端点区间数互反判断矩阵之中——研究了三端点区间数互反判断矩阵的一致性与权重向量之间的类似特征向量关系,并运用线性规划模型给出一种处理三端点区间数决策者对方案属性权重的方法,然后通过三端点区间数权重向量的期望值,进行方案集结排序。最后通过具体的案例,验证了所提出方法的有效性和适用性。     

公司董事违反勤勉义务之判断路径分析

董事是否违反勤勉义务判断之实质是判断董事行为是否合理,而董事行为合理性判断之实质,是评价董事行为是否存在过失的问题。理性人标准作为过失侵权之法定标准,基于路径依赖得以进入公司法领域,而伴随着价值指引和制度进化,出现了独立于理性人标准的商业判断规则,但两者之间仍存在着一般与特殊的关系。商业判断规则对决策程序和实体结果的划分实现了司法克制与董事免责的双重目的,进而解决了法院评价能力不足和董事风险激励的难题,以维护董事会之决策中心地位,保持社团独立性和社团民主性。