媒介生态平衡的演变与博弈——如何认识中国报业“拐点”

面对2005中国报业“拐点”,本文从媒介生态学角度,分析我国区域化报业市场格局与报业收入的单一性,发行竞争加剧到地市级城市报业市场面临重新洗牌的趋势,从五个方面探讨当前我国报纸如何打造核心竞争力,提升媒介生态位的途径。     

A Multiattribute Utility Analysis of Alternative Sites for the Disposal of Nuclear Waste

Five potential sites nominated for the Nation's first geologic repository for disposing of nuclear waste are evaluated using multiattribute utility analysis. The analysis was designed to aid the Department of Energy in its selection of 3 sites for characterization, a detailed data-gathering process that will involve the construction of exploratory shafts for underground testing and that may cost as much as $1 billion per site. The analysis produced insights into the relative advantages and disadvantages of the nominated sites and clarified current uncertainties regarding repository performance.     

An Analysis of the Portfolio of Sites to Characterize for Selecting a Nuclear Repository

The U.S. Department of Energy has selected three sites, from five nominated, to characterize for a nuclear repository to permanently dispose of nuclear waste. This decision was made without the benefit of an analysis of this "portfolio" problem. This paper analyzes different portfolios of three sites for simultaneous characterization and strategies for sequential characterization. Characterization of each site, which involves significant subsurface excavation, is now estimated to cost $1 billion. Mainly because of the high characterization costs, sequential characterization strategies are identified which are the equivalent of $1.7-2.0 billion less expensive than the selected DOE simultaneous characterization of the three sites. If three sites are simultaneously characterized, one portfolio is estimated to be the equivalent of $100-400 million better than the selected DOE portfolio. Because of these potential savings and several other complicating factors that may influence the relative desirability of characterization strategies, a thorough analysis of characterization strategies that addresses the likelihood of finding disqualifying conditions during site characterization, uncertainties, and dependencies in forecast site repository costs, preclosure and postclosure health and safety impacts, potential delays of both sequential and simultaneous characterization strategies, and the environmental, socioeconomic, and health and safety impacts of characterization activities is recommended.     

Uncertainty about Probability: A Decision Analysis Perspective

The issue of how to think about "uncertainty about probability" is framed and analyzed from the viewpoint of a decision analyst. The failure of nuclear power plants is used as an example. The key idea is to think of probability as describing a state of information on an uncertain event, and to pose the issue of uncertainty in this quantity as uncertainty about a number that would be definitive: it has the property that you would assign it as the probability if you knew it. Logical consistency requires that the probability to assign to a single occurrence in the absence of further information be the mean of the distribution of this definitive number, not the median as is sometimes suggested. Any decision that must be made without the benefit of further information must also be made using the mean of the definitive number's distribution. With this formulation, we find further that the probability of r occurrences in n exchangeable trials will depend on the first n moments of the definitive number's distribution. In making decisions, the expected value of clairvoyance on the occurrence of the event must be at least as great as that on the definitive number. If one of the events in question occurs, then the increase in probability of another such event is readily computed. This means, in terms of coin tossing, that unless one is absolutely sure of the fairness of a coin, seeing a head must increase the probability of heads, in distinction to usual thought. A numerical example for nuclear power shows that the failure of one plant of a group with a low probability of failure can significantly increase the probability that must be assigned to failure of a second plant in the group.     

基于眼动数据的核电厂数字化主控室操纵员认知负荷量化模型研究

核电厂数字化人机界面改变了主控室操纵员的认知负荷,对核电厂的安全产生影响。文章在认知负荷理论和眼动追踪技术的基础上,利用SGE、GTE、注视点个数和注视时长等四项眼动指标构建了基于眼动数据的核电厂数字化主控室操纵员认知负荷量化模型。在DCS模拟机上对正常工况和事故工况进行模拟实验,实验结束后被试者填写NASA—TLX量表,并计算和收集所需要的眼动数据。对量表得分P_n和四项眼动指标的乘积M进行相关性分析,对量化模型的可行性进行了验证。对P_n和M进行回归分析得出模型指数,并计算P_n与计算值P之间的误差,验证了量化模型的准确性。基于眼动数据的核电厂操纵员认知负荷量化模型的提出,为眼动指标应用于核电厂安全领域提供了理论参考。     

有效独立性原则下核安全监督管理体制的审视与重构

核安全监管的独立性应当是有效独立性。它不仅要求在体制设置上实现监管机构与其他机构或实体的有效分离,也要求监管机构能够独立行使行政许可、审评、监督执法等关键职能,并确保监管机构在安全决策上有效独立。就我国而言,应基于有效独立性原则对核安全监督管理体制进行审视重构,强化国家核安全局独立性、整合核安全监管核心职能、建立部门间监管协调机制、健全核安全监管技术支持和人力资源管理体系、构建完善透明、可追溯的监管决策程序和利益冲突审查机制等措施,推动我国核安全监督管理体制的健全完善。     

朝核危机析论

20世纪90年代朝核危机爆发以来,各方围绕朝鲜核政治的博弈动机一直扑朔迷离。笔者认为,朝鲜追求和发展核武器的动因是复杂多重的,朝鲜核政治的本质乃是各方现实利益的杯葛和较量。以解决朝核问题为主旨的六方会谈,由于其本身的功能缺陷及受到诸多因素掣肘,在实现朝鲜弃核和半岛重归和平方面还有很长路程要走。     

Sport and Social Inclusion: Evidence from the Performance of Public Leisure Facilities

In the UK, sport is increasingly recognized as a means for promoting social inclusion. However, evaluation, to date, is limited with regard to the achievement of social inclusion through sport. Based on the database of Sport England’s National Benchmarking Service, this paper aims to investigate the extent to which public leisure facilities were used by socially disadvantaged groups in England over the past 10 years. The statistical evidence demonstrates the consistent pattern of numerical under-representation of the most disadvantaged socio-economic group and people aged over 60 years. Furthermore, there were significant and linear decreases in participation of young people aged 11–19 years and disabled people aged under 60 years. Finally, facility type and management type were found to be the main sources of performance gaps in certain indicators. In spite of these findings, further research is still required to investigate whether under-representation and the deterioration of performance are due to constraints or preferences.     

中国大陆首次核爆炸试验前后的美台冲突

在中国大陆进行首次核爆炸试验前后,美台之间对中国大陆的核能力的影响以及应当采取的对策的分析出现了重要的分歧.约翰逊政府拒绝了蒋介石对中国大陆进行军事攻击的建议,也否决了蒋介石索取更多军援建立所谓完全的空防体系的要求.从深层次分析,它既表明了美台对于核武器威慑能力的不同认识,也反映了美国的对台政策总是从属于它对中国大陆的政策.这表明,在中美合作对美国变得越来越重要的大背景下,那种指望依靠美国的支持实现从中国版图中分裂出去的台独企图最终只能是一枕黄粱.     

高校设备投资产业化探析

投资不足 ,效益不高是当前高校设备投资与管理的两大问题。实现高校设备经营与管理的产业化 ,是提高高校设备投资效益的有效途径