水利投资减灾效果评估:基于中国省际面板数据的实证研究

利用省际面板数据,从全国及区域层面研究新增水利投资、各类型水利设施在抗击农业旱灾、水灾中的效果。研究发现：从全国层面看,新增水利投资能有效降低旱灾成灾率、水灾成灾率,但水利投资抗旱效果比抗击水灾效果好。水库能有效抗旱,但加重了水灾成灾率,水闸抗旱效果明显。从区域层面看,东、中、西部地区水利投资抗旱效果都较明显,而水利投资抗御水灾效果东部地区最明显。机井在中部地区对抗旱起到了一定作用,但东部、西部地区机井数量却与旱灾成灾率正相关。水闸抗御水灾的作用在中部地区显著。中部地区堤防长度与水灾成灾率正相关,西部地区机电排灌站装机容量与旱灾成灾率正相关。东部地区机电排灌站装机容量与水灾成灾率负相关,而在中部地区两者正相关。     

日本山梨县城乡一体化现状考察与思考

日本山梨县城乡一体化的现状,从经济结构上看,表现在就业者的产业结构、国民收入及恩格尔系数和社会商品零售额等方面;从基础设施上看,体现在人均铺装道路面积、医疗机构以及上下水状况等公共设施的发展水平上;从人的现代化上看,反映在教育、文化、体育、休闲等方面。它给我们的启示是:城乡一体化是一个长期过程,是一项系统工程,是一种现代文明。     

日本核损害赔偿责任制度研究——以福岛核事故为例

地震、海啸等自然灾害的出现是引发福岛核事故的重要因素,但不是唯一原因,日本东京电力公司自身不听劝阻冒险作业、隐瞒真相、设备老化以及政府监管不力等难则其咎,因此其不能免除责任。但完全依靠1200亿日元的财务保证无法充分弥补被害人损失,且受责任集中原则以及无限责任失效性影响,最终,日本政府以设立核事故损害赔偿支援机构的方式介入此事,并发布了赔偿指南,将精神损失、经济收入损失、传闻损失、间接损失、自愿避难损失等项目都纳入其中。为了得到及时救济,受影响的民众可单独或同时通过协商、诉讼、调解等方式求偿。     

我国核电技术创新中的政企协调度实证分析

为探究我国核电技术创新中政府和企业的协调情况,文章基于协同学理论和复杂系统理论,从核电技术创新的特点出发,将核电技术创新系统解构为政府子系统和企业子系统,采用2007年—2017年相关数据,运用协调度测度模型对政府子系统有序度、企业子系统有序度和政企协调度进行测度和分析。研究结果显示:我国核电技术创新中政企协调度随时间呈现“N”型变化趋势,且协调度均值较低;政府子系统有序度和企业子系统有序度表现为“双螺旋”协调演进;制约政府子系统有序度和企业子系统有序度提升的关键因素分别为税收优惠力度和企业R&D强度。     

Bad News Has Wings: Dread Risk Mediates Social Amplification in Risk Communication

Social diffusion of information amplifies risk through processes of birth, death, and distortion of message content. Dread risk—involving uncontrollable, fatal, involuntary, and catastrophic outcomes (e.g., terrorist attacks and nuclear accidents)—may be particularly susceptible to amplification because of the psychological biases inherent in dread risk avoidance. To test this, initially balanced information about high or low dread topics was given to a set of individuals who then communicated this information through diffusion chains, each person passing a message to the next. A subset of these chains were also reexposed to the original information. We measured prior knowledge, perceived risk before and after transmission, and, at each link, number of positive and negative statements. Results showed that the more a message was transmitted the more negative statements it contained. This was highest for the high dread topic. Increased perceived risk and production of negative messages was closely related to the amount of negative information that was received, with domain knowledge mitigating this effect. Reexposure to the initial information was ineffectual in reducing bias, demonstrating the enhanced danger of socially transmitted information.     

Making sense of nuclear war: narratives of voluntary civil defence and the memory of Britain’s Cold War

In interviews with members of Britain’s Civil Defence Services, experiences of Cold War voluntarism are recalled in different ways. Some remembered their desire to help defend their nation and local community. Others remembered making a leisure choice that had little connection to the potential nuclear war the organization was ostensibly preparing for. No one provided a well-developed account of civil defence’s ability to provide a defence against the effects of a nuclear war. Popular memory theorists suggest cultural discourse limits the ability of individuals to narrate stories that do not align with culturally valued frameworks: in this case, dominant understandings of civil defence as at best ridiculous or at worst dangerous were established in the 1980s. This article argues that memories of civil defence voluntarism in the 1950-60s have been shaped by these discourses, but that individuals were able to express the different meanings civil defence had in their lives in ways that provide a more nuanced and holistic picture of the intersections of leisure, service and sociability that made up civil defence. As such, it argues that oral history allows us to understand the various ‘horizons of possibility’ that made up individual experiences of the Cold War.     

Assessing the Performance of a Classification‐Based Vulnerability Analysis Model

In this article, a classification model based on the majority rule sorting (MR‐Sort) method is employed to evaluate the vulnerability of safety‐critical systems with respect to malevolent intentional acts. The model is built on the basis of a (limited‐size) set of data representing (a priori known) vulnerability classification examples. The empirical construction of the classification model introduces a source of uncertainty into the vulnerability analysis process: a quantitative assessment of the performance of the classification model (in terms of accuracy and confidence in the assignments) is thus in order. Three different app oaches are here considered to this aim: (i) a model–retrieval‐based approach, (ii) the bootstrap method, and (iii) the leave‐one‐out cross‐validation technique. The analyses are presented with reference to an exemplificative case study involving the vulnerability assessment of nuclear power plants.     

重思邻避困境的风险沟通与治理问题:基于核电的讨论

如何赢得民意和社会许可已经是目前国内核电风险设施选址过程中的主要障碍。而要破解该难题,我们既需要在微观层面针对潜在风险承担者的利益补偿,针对风险感知差异之重点群体开展理性沟通和共识协商,同时也更需要宏观层面的制度建设,通过制度化措施来缓解社会不信任,将我国在环评和社会稳评等风险沟通领域的相关制度安排落实为具体实践,并突破结构性障碍,在风险协商治理方面创新政治过程和制度,以制度的确定性来适应,甚至控制技术风险的不确定性。     

论核安保文化及其发展趋势

核安保文化是核安保在实践中产生的新理念。文章对核安保的概念、提出核安保组织文化的基础进行分析,并介绍了核安保文化的双层架构,分别是自上而下的核安保文化的推行机制及组织内从下而上的核安保文化的金字塔概念模型。随后,简单分析了核安保文化在组织中对核安保行为的作用机制,并对未来的研究提出建议。     

农村家庭伦理价值与代际关系的权变——基于苏北渔村四代同堂家庭的个案调查

家庭作为社会的基本单位,在城市化浪潮和市场化竞争中有其自身的适应逻辑。农村四代同堂家庭虽具传统大家庭同居共食之形,但其价值伦理已经发生权变。即家庭内部以核心小家庭为中心,通过分财独立和空间区隔保持代际成员之间的自主性;代际之间以子代核心小家庭为重心进行资源倾斜,形成亲子关系倒置的理性化关系格局。面对城市化压力和市场化竞争,农村四代同堂家庭在既相互独立又相互依赖的代际分工中形成情利一体的伦理共同体,究其本质是以核心小家庭辐射大家庭的代际关系实践,体现了农村家庭积极理性化的权变策略。