模型的事例表示

基于事例推理的模型管理系统中 ,有效地表达事例是实现系统的基础 .模型事例不是属性值事例 ,而是结构事例 .本文针对原有表达事例方式的不足提出了一种模型事例的表达方法 ,该方法适合于各种数值类模型的表示 ,并能够脱离模型的语义 ,同时给出了此种事例库组织的初步方案 ,为以后的研究奠定了基础 .     

Determinants and Mapping of Collective Perceptions of Technological Risk: The Case of the Second Nuclear Power Plant in Taiwan

Nuclear power is a highly controversial and salient example of environmental risk. The siting or operating of a nuclear power plant often faces widespread public opposition. Although studies of public perceptions of nuclear power date back to 1970s, little research attempts to explain the spatial heterogeneity of risk attitude toward nuclear power among individuals or communities. This article intends to improve the knowledge about the major factors contributing to nuclear power plant risk perceptions by mapping the geographical patterns of local risk perception and examining the determinants in forming the nature and distribution of the perceived risk among potentially affected population. The analysis was conducted by a case study of the Second Nuclear Power Plant (SNPP) in Taiwan by using a novel methodology that incorporates a comprehensive risk perception (CRP) model into an ethnographic approach called risk perception mapping (RPM). First, we examined the determinants of local nuclear power risk perceptions through the CRP model and multivariate regression analysis. Second, the results were integrated with the RPM approach to map and explain the spatial pattern of risk perceptions. The findings demonstrate that the respondents regard the nuclear power plant as an extremely high‐risk facility, causing them to oppose the SNPP and reject the compensation payment to accept its continuing operation. Results also indicate that perceptions of nuclear power risk were mainly influenced by social trust, psychological and socioeconomic attributes, proximity, and the perceived effects of the SNPP on the quality of everyday life.     

Understanding multi-methodology: Evaluating the perceived impact of mixing methods for group budgetary decisions

This paper reports on the design and implementation of a multi-methodology intervention intended to support a budget prioritisation decision by a multi-organisational group tasked with tackling the problem of teenage pregnancy in an English borough. The intervention approach involved the combined use of cognitive/causal mapping and a multi-criteria decision analysis method to develop and prioritise a number of projects aimed at alleviating issues associated with teenage pregnancy. The paper describes and discusses the process of developing and applying the intervention approach, and provides an evaluation of its perceived impact by the client group. Drawing on the rich seam of data gathered over the course of our work with the multi-organisational group, we explore the varying degrees of impact that the mapping and multi-criteria evaluation methods achieved during and after the intervention. Analysis of the intervention data suggests that both methods were perceived to facilitate a different way of thinking and learning. In addition, we find that the mapping and multi-criteria evaluation methods successfully addressed participants' democratic and rational concerns. However, despite these reported positive effects, the full recommendations of the intervention were not implemented. An attempt is made to explain this outcome in terms of both the multi-organisational context within which the intervention took place and the nature of the group task. Directions for further research are then proposed.     

数据挖掘技术在CRM中的应用

客户关系管理(CRM)是数据挖掘技术的重要应用领域,也正是因为具有数据挖掘技术的支持才使CRM具有越来越广泛的市场价值和研究价值。本篇论文综述了面向CRM的数据挖掘应用的总体研究情况。包括面向CRM数据挖掘的体系结构;从客户生命周期的角度和行业应用角度分析了CRM中数据挖掘的应用状况;最后结合当前数据挖掘技术的发展指出了CRM中数据挖掘应用的进一步发展趋势以及我国在该领域的研究方向。     

无外部市场条件下中间产品转移价格的博弈分析与决策

本文首先用反例证明了文^[1]中在各分厂成本函数和最终产品需求函数已知的条件下,给出的中间产品最优转移价格的两个计算公式并不总是成立的,给出了这两个计算公式成立的充要条件,并分析了公司关于中间产品转移价格决策的动态一致性问题。接着,利用完全信息动态博弈对中间产品转移价格的确定问题做了进一步的分析研究。最后,针对文^[1]中给出的中间产品最优转移价格的两个计算公式不成立的情况,讨论了中间产品转移价格的确定问题。     

Inductive Inference: An Axiomatic Approach

A predictor is asked to rank eventualities according to their plausibility, based on past cases. We assume that she can form a ranking given any memory that consists of finitely many past cases. Mild consistency requirements on these rankings imply that they have a numerical representation via a matrix assigning numbers to eventuality–case pairs, as follows. Given a memory, each eventuality is ranked according to the sum of the numbers in its row, over cases in memory. The number attached to an eventuality–case pair can be interpreted as the degree of support that the past case lends to the plausibility of the eventuality. Special instances of this result may be viewed as axiomatizing kernel methods for estimation of densities and for classification problems. Interpreting the same result for rankings of theories or hypotheses, rather than of specific eventualities, it is shown that one may ascribe to the predictor subjective conditional probabilities of cases given theories, such that her rankings of theories agree with rankings by the likelihood functions.     

Economic Impact of Accelerated Cleanup on Regions Surrounding the U.S. DOE's Major Nuclear Weapons Sites

The regional economic impacts of the U.S. Department of Energy's accelerated environmental cleanup plan are estimated for the major nuclear weapons sites in Colorado, Idaho, New Mexico, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Washington. The analysis shows that the impact falls heavily on the three relatively rural regions around the Savannah River (SC), Hanford (WA), and Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (ID) sites. A less aggressive phase-down of environmental management funds and separate funds to invest in education and infrastructure in the regions helps buffer the impacts on jobs, personal income, and gross regional product. Policy options open to the federal and state and local governments are discussed.     

Chinese and Americans Agree on What Is Fair,but Disagree on What Is Best in Societal Decisions Affecting Health and Safety Risks

Through surveys of students and junior professionals and interviews with business and government executives, we studied Chinese choices and fairness perceptions in risky health and safety decisions. The survey responses were compared with American responses from an earlier study by Keller and Sarin.The survey results show that the American and Chinese respondents had similar fairness perceptions, but the Chinese did not make decisions that were consistent with their fairness perceptions, whereas the Americans did. We found that the middle-age Chinese professionals tended to make choices that were more different from the Americans than were the choices of the young Chinese management students. It is likely that these discrepancies were caused by cultural differences, with the younger Chinese tending to face a stronger Western influence.The insights from the survey results were enriched by interviews that revealed fairness perceptions of Chinese business and government executives. A framework to interpret cultural influences on decision making was also proposed.     

国际工程承包市场竞争的博弈模型

本文对国际工程承包的市场竞争进行了实证分析并指出其基本特征,在此基础之上建立了国际工程承包的市场竞争模型。并给出了该模型的一个均衡解,最后对均衡解进行了解释并指出该模型带来的深刻影响。     

国际市场营销DSS分析与设计

国际市场营销决策支持系统（ＤＳＳ）是应用计算机技术、仿真技术和信息技术,根据国际市场需求变化,提供给决策者以产品、价格、销售渠道和促销方案的人机系统,具有对话、数据、模型和方法等四个互相联系的子系统,设计和开发国际市场营销ＤＳＳ必须要有领导重视,组织好知识结构的项目开发组,以及投入足够的资金