证券市场的开放与规则的发展--以B股规则为中心的检讨

人民币特种股(B股)市场作为我国证券市场开放的窗口和试验田,至今已存在10余年,相比它短暂的辉煌,如今的B股市场已经日益“边缘化”,除了进行投机,B股还能为中国证券市场开放做些什么?结合我国证券市场的特点,深入分析B股市场的发展及其规则变迁,认真总结其经验和教训,对我国在证券市场开放过程中建立健全相关法律制度很有借鉴意义。     

Using Probabilistic Terrorism Risk Modeling for Regulatory Benefit-Cost Analysis: Application to the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative in the Land Environment

This article presents a framework for using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling in regulatory analysis. We demonstrate the framework with an example application involving a regulation under consideration, the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative for the Land Environment, (WHTI‐L). First, we estimate annualized loss from terrorist attacks with the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Probabilistic Terrorism Model. We then estimate the critical risk reduction, which is the risk‐reducing effectiveness of WHTI‐L needed for its benefit, in terms of reduced terrorism loss in the United States, to exceed its cost. Our analysis indicates that the critical risk reduction depends strongly not only on uncertainties in the terrorism risk level, but also on uncertainty in the cost of regulation and how casualties are monetized. For a terrorism risk level based on the RMS standard risk estimate, the baseline regulatory cost estimate for WHTI‐L, and a range of casualty cost estimates based on the willingness‐to‐pay approach, our estimate for the expected annualized loss from terrorism ranges from $2.7 billion to $5.2 billion. For this range in annualized loss, the critical risk reduction for WHTI‐L ranges from 7% to 13%. Basing results on a lower risk level that results in halving the annualized terrorism loss would double the critical risk reduction (14–26%), and basing the results on a higher risk level that results in a doubling of the annualized terrorism loss would cut the critical risk reduction in half (3.5–6.6%). Ideally, decisions about terrorism security regulations and policies would be informed by true benefit‐cost analyses in which the estimated benefits are compared to costs. Such analyses for terrorism security efforts face substantial impediments stemming from the great uncertainty in the terrorist threat and the very low recurrence interval for large attacks. Several approaches can be used to estimate how a terrorism security program or regulation reduces the distribution of risks it is intended to manage. But, continued research to develop additional tools and data is necessary to support application of these approaches. These include refinement of models and simulations, engagement of subject matter experts, implementation of program evaluation, and estimating the costs of casualties from terrorism events.     

报业会计信息系统安全部分控制

报业会计电算化的系统安全,是报业会计信息系统的安全会计电算化的灵魂和核心,而内部控制则是保障报业会计电算化系统安全的一项重要工作。本文从报业会计电算化工作的实际出发,针对目前报业会计电算化应用的现状,结合报业会计电算化的特点和管理要求,阐述了报业会计电算化系统安全内部控制问题的必要性,并提出了如何加强报业会计电算化信息系统安全,有效进行内部控制的一些措施和办法。     

Forced to work and liberated from work

The work-welfare nexus is essential in all social policy regimes. The question is in what situations individuals should be entitled to social welfare benefits and in which situations they should be obliged to work. Social welfare law and administrative practices define mechanisms that separate the deserving poor from people able to work. This article analyses the functions and character of these "separation mechanisms" in Sweden during three periods in history: a) in rural society in the late 19th century; b) in industrial society during the successful years of the Swedish model from World War II until the late 1970s; and c) the present, including the period of welfare retrenchment and reconsideration since the early 1980s. The conclusion is that Swedish social policy has always been strongly work-oriented, but the specific form and content of the work ethic has varied under the influence of different ideologies and handled in different social policy institutions. Under specific conditions the work line has been either generous or restrictive and it has been based on structural attempts to improve the opportunities to work as well as on attempts to strongly pressure the individual to work. The work line of today is seen as an interesting attempt to combine an effort to create good work through improved work conditions and an effort to reinforce elements of work enforcement in the social insurance system.     

论电话监听的合理性及其限度

电话监听是技术侦查手段的一种。适当运用电话监听,能够提高对抗犯罪的效能。然而,电话监听具有对公民隐私权、言论自由权等权利造成侵害的很大的危险性。因此,既要认识到其合理性,又要对其适用确定必要的限度,并在运用过程中,保障犯罪嫌疑人、被告人的基本人权和诉讼权利。     

反向抵押贷款:养老保障新视角

我国正快速步入老龄化社会,养老压力日益突出,传统养老模式已不能满足市场经济条件下人们对养老的需求。作为避免老龄化危机的有效途径,反向抵押贷款在美国取得了巨大的成功。文章分析了在我国实施反向抵押贷款的必要性和可行性,并指出了存在的风险。     

关于有效促进社会公正的几个问题

本文认为:(1)为了顺利地推进改革,为了中国社会经济持续、有效和健康的发展,就必须适应新的历史条件,顺应民意、顺应现代社会的基本趋势,把社会公正放到一个突出的位置。(2)在中国现阶段应当开始建立一个初级的社会公平保障体系。初级社会公平保障体系的基本特征是低水准、广覆盖、有实效。对于国家来说,近期需要做的事情可以分为两大块,一是国家的直接投入,二是国家的立法、监督、执行和引导。(3)有一些根深蒂固的观念在妨碍着我们重视社会公正问题。这些观念主要包括:“原始积累不可避免”,“国家财力不足”,“重视公正便会妨碍效率”,因此我们必须对这些观念进行一番必要的反思。(4)要想构建一个公正而和谐的社会,就必须培育一个庞大的中等收入者人群,形成一个“两头小,中间大”的橄榄型的社会结构,那么社会就会变得越来越稳定了。     

中国粮食物流体系现代化建设策略

粮食物流体系是连接粮食生产和消费的重要一环,加快推进其现代化建设将有力保障我国的粮食安全。基于对现阶段中国粮食物流体系的全面调研,详细分析了我国粮食物流体系现代化建设的发展现状、存在问题和面临形势,并提出推进粮食物流体系现代化的策略。第一,提升粮食物流体系建设系统化水平,增强粮食流通能力;第二,加快粮食流通立法和标准化建设工作,打破要素流通制约;第三,提高粮食物流设施建设专业化水平,提升物流体系效能;第四,积极开展粮食物流体系信息化改革,优化资源配置效率;第五,统筹各地并优化资金配置,推进项目整体布局;第六,构建粮食流通“双循环”格局,培育国际化大粮商。     

受控核聚变的一种新途径──低能注入式磁盖势阱约束法受控核聚变

提出了磁盖势阱（ＭＬＰＷ）一种静电装置,该装置是在球形静电势阱的外围加上磁盖而构成的,可用于受控核聚变．通过建立磁盖势阱中带电粒子的运动方程并取单粒子谐振子近似以及运用自洽场的统计方法,球形聚变炉内大量带电粒子的集体行为被计算机所研究和模拟．由于使用了电场与磁场的联合约束,与单独的磁约束或惯性约束受控核聚变相比,所需达到的技术指标将有所改善,工程技术上的难度也会有所降低     

Information and communications technologies, strategic asymmetry and national security

In the history of warfare, there are a number of examples of strategic uses of asymmetric technologies. Consistent with history and theory, individuals, organizations and nations have spotted opportunities to employ information and communications technologies to gain and exploit asymmetric advantages and to counter asymmetric weaknesses. This article discusses various asymmetries associated with institutions, nations and organizations that influence the ICT-national security nexus. Regulative, normative and cognitive institutions in a country provide various mechanisms that affect the nature of positive and negative asymmetries. Nations and organizations also differ in terms of their capability to assimilate ICT tools to gain positive asymmetries and deal with vulnerabilities of negative asymmetries. Integrative approaches that combine policy and technological measures at various levels are likely to make the world more secure.