曲轴无飞边精密成形模具系统开发

为了解决曲轴模锻材料利用率低和能耗高的问题，基于有限元数值模拟技术，研究了热锻曲轴的无飞边精密成 形工艺及模具系统。由于曲轴的几何结构单元主要为单缸曲轴，故首先给出了单缸曲轴的热锻工序，包括板式楔横轧、 多向锻造和精锻。利用DEFORM 3D软件对曲轴的无飞边锻造过程进行全程数值模拟，结果表明：楔横轧工序中工件两 端易突起，多向锻造中连杆颈圆角容易折叠，精锻中主轴颈圆角处容易折叠；楔横轧工序最大载荷为250 kN，多向锻造X 向最大载荷为450 kN，精锻最大载荷为5 450 kN。最后将该技术推广到两缸曲轴和多缸曲轴，同样得到了良好的无飞边 结果。     

等离子弧焊接电弧的温度场和流场研究现状

等离子体电弧温度场和流场的研究对其在工业生产中的应用具有重要的意义。文章分析了等离子弧温度场以 及流场检测和计算的研究现状。在等离子弧温度场的检测中，现今光谱诊断法最为方便，所测得的结果较其他检测方法 而言精确度更高；在等离子弧流场的检测中，运用粒子成像测速技术的方法可以检测得到流场分布。在等离子弧温度场 和流场的计算中，数理解析法计算繁琐，需要大量时间。数值模拟的方法更为经济、有效。     

Simultaneous inferences for ordered exponential location parameters under unbalanced data and heteroscedasticity of scale parameters

A test procedure for testing homogeneity of location parameters against simple ordered alternative is proposed for k(k ≥ 2) members of two parameter exponential distribution under unbalanced data and heteroscedasticity of the scale parameters. The relevant one-sided and two-sided simultaneous confidence intervals (SCIs) for all k(k ? 1)/2 ordered pairwise differences of location parameters are also proposed. Simulation-based study revealed that the proposed procedure is better than the recently proposed procedure in terms of power, coverage probability, and average volume of SCIs. The implementation of proposed procedure is demonstrated through real life data.     

A generally weighted moving average chart for time between events

Shewhart-type attribute charts are known to be inefficient for small changes in monitoring nonconformities. An alternative way is to use a time-weighted chart to monitor the time between events (TBE). We propose a one-sided Generally Weighted Moving Average control chart to monitor the time between events (TBE); regarded as the GWMA-TBE chart. To aid the implementation of the chart, the necessary design parameters are provided. An extensive performance analysis shows that the GWMA-TBE chart is better than the well-known EWMA and Shewhart charts at detecting very small to moderate changes. Finally, a summary and some conclusions are provided.     

Linking hybrid systems to ACD models: a case study in the fibre-glass industry

This paper is aimed at formalising and testing a model for hybrid systems where the interactions between the continuous process parts and the manufacturing sub-systems are given by minor stoppages. The proposed approach consists in representing the effects of the continuous process dynamics on discrete manufacturing sub-systems by means of autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models originally conceived to treat high-frequency and irregularly spaced financial transaction data. The model has been applied to a real-life furnace and spooling-bushing department system of a fibre-glass production plant. Results conclude that the ACD-based model proved useful for representing the occurrence of fibre-glass breakage on the spooling-bushing machines and, in more general terms, that the proposed methodology could be really suitable for the logical modelling of the hybrid production systems where the relationships between the continuous and the discrete parts are given by the occurrence of minor stoppages.     

Population correlation matrices for sampling experiments

A procedure is given for generating correlation matrices which can be used as population correlation matrices for sampling experiments. The algorithm specifies the eigenvalues and randomly selects a correlation matrix from the class of all correlation matrices which possess these same eigenvalues. It is possible to obtain a set of correlation matrices which are indexed by the degree of interdependence among the variables by parameterizing the eigenvalues with a single parameter. An example is the case in which the eigenvalues form a geometric progression. Examples are given and an application to the problem of stopping rules in stepwise regression is discussed. Other applications are also briefly discussed.     

非线性拉伸片上粘性流体MHD流动的数值解

研究流经非线性拉伸片的粘性磁流体的边界层流动.在前人获得的常微分初边值问题的基础上，利用适当替换将其进一步简化，再利用Galerkin有限元方法将其化成非线性方程组，然后利用Newton迭代法求出此问题的数值解.最后在表格中列出数值结果，并与已知数值结果做比较.比较结果显示：该数值结果与已知数值结果基本吻合.这说明Galerkin有限元方法的可靠性和有效性.     

Random sampling of alters from networks: A promising direction in egocentric network research

The social network perspective has great potential for advancing knowledge of social mechanisms in many fields. However, collecting egocentric (i.e., personal) network data is costly and places a heavy burden on respondents. This is especially true of the task used to elicit information on ties between network members (i.e., alter-alter ties or density matrix), which grows exponentially in length as network size increases. While most existing national surveys circumvent this problem by capping the number of network members that can be named, this strategy has major limitations. Here, we apply random sampling of network members to reduce cost, respondent burden, and error in network studies. We examine the effectiveness and reliability of random sampling in simulated and real-world egocentric network data. We find that in estimating sample/population means of network measures, randomly selecting a small number of network members produces only minor errors, regardless of true network size. For studies that use network measures in regressions, randomly selecting the mean number of network members (e.g., randomly selecting 10 alters when mean network size is 10) is enough to recover estimates of network measures that correlate close to 1 with those of the full sample. We conclude with recommendations for best practices that will make this versatile but resource intensive methodology accessible to a wider group of researchers without sacrificing data quality.     

Comparing Several Variances with a Control in Direction-mixed Families of Hypotheses

This article deals with simultaneous comparisons of k(k ? 1) populations with a control population with respect to variance in direction-mixed families of hypotheses. Computation of critical constants required for the implementation of the proposed procedures is discussed and selected values of the critical constants are tabulated. Power comparison of the proposed procedures with their existing competitors is carried out using Monte Carlo simulation. An example is given to illustrate the implementation of proposed procedures.     

新常态下货币政策规则的对比研究

本文构建具有名义粘性的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,并通过数值模拟对比前瞻型与后顾型货币政策规则的经济影响.目的是考察在"新常态"时期,不同货币政策规则下外生冲击对经济变量的影响的大小,从而对货币政策规则的稳健性与有效性进行检验.本文利用参数校准与数值模拟在三种不同货币政策规则下,对各个外生冲击的脉冲响应函数进行模拟.结果显示,前瞻型货币政策规则在熨平利率波动与通胀波动方面具有显著优势,并且能够自动平稳外生冲击对经济变量的影响.不过,在产出方面,前瞻型与后顾型货币政策规则具有同样效应.