Optimization of Cascade‐Resilient Electrical Infrastructures and its Validation by Power Flow Modeling

Large‐scale outages on real‐world critical infrastructures, although infrequent, are increasingly disastrous to our society. In this article, we are primarily concerned with power transmission networks and we consider the problem of allocation of generation to distributors by rewiring links under the objectives of maximizing network resilience to cascading failure and minimizing investment costs. The combinatorial multiobjective optimization is carried out by a nondominated sorting binary differential evolution (NSBDE) algorithm. For each generators–distributors connection pattern considered in the NSBDE search, a computationally cheap, topological model of failure cascading in a complex network (named the Motter‐Lai [ML] model) is used to simulate and quantify network resilience to cascading failures initiated by targeted attacks. The results on the 400 kV French power transmission network case study show that the proposed method allows us to identify optimal patterns of generators–distributors connection that improve cascading resilience at an acceptable cost. To verify the realistic character of the results obtained by the NSBDE with the embedded ML topological model, a more realistic but also more computationally expensive model of cascading failures is adopted, based on optimal power flow (namely, the ORNL‐Pserc‐Alaska) model). The consistent results between the two models provide impetus for the use of topological, complex network theory models for analysis and optimization of large infrastructures against cascading failure with the advantages of simplicity, scalability, and low computational cost.     

终身教育下成人教育转型动力研究

终身教育与学习型社会是当今时代对教育事业的两个基本要求，成人教育作为二者实施与构建的主体实现方式地位突出。“学习、开放、多元、终身、全民”型结构是成人教育转型之道，让学习成为一种习惯，成为引领成人教育转型动力，以适应终身教育有序发展。     

Adaptive and repeated cumulative meta‐analyses of safety data during a new drug development process

During a new drug development process, it is desirable to timely detect potential safety signals. For this purpose, repeated meta‐analyses may be performed sequentially on accumulating safety data. Moreover, if the amount of safety data from the originally planned program is not enough to ensure adequate power to test a specific hypothesis (e.g., the noninferiority hypothesis of an event of interest), the total sample size may be increased by adding new studies to the program. Without appropriate adjustment, it is well known that the type I error rate will be inflated because of repeated analyses and sample size adjustment. In this paper, we discuss potential issues associated with adaptive and repeated cumulative meta‐analyses of safety data conducted during a drug development process. We consider both frequentist and Bayesian approaches. A new drug development example is used to demonstrate the application of the methods. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

盛名难副: 明星 CEO 与负面信息隐藏

以 2009 年 ～ 2016 年间 A 股上市公司为研究样本，采用双重差分法研究明星 CEO 成名后负面信息的披露策略． 以 CEO 是否登上媒体发布的榜单作为明星 CEO 的代理变量，研究结果表明: 明星 CEO 上榜将显著增加隐藏负面信息的可能性，验证了“名声俘获假说”; 明星CEO上榜后发生财务重述的概率显著增加，而一旦退出榜单其隐藏负面信息的可能性则显著降低，验证了名声的负面效应． 机制检验表明明星 CEO 通过管理层权力抑制负面信息披露． 另 外，上榜前盈余质量较低、代理问题较严重的公司，其明星 CEO 隐藏负面信息的可能性更高．文章丰富了 CEO 个人特质对信息披露行为的影响及其经济后果的研究，对于资本市场的健康发展具有一定的启示意义．     

Assessing the Performance of a Classification‐Based Vulnerability Analysis Model

In this article, a classification model based on the majority rule sorting (MR‐Sort) method is employed to evaluate the vulnerability of safety‐critical systems with respect to malevolent intentional acts. The model is built on the basis of a (limited‐size) set of data representing (a priori known) vulnerability classification examples. The empirical construction of the classification model introduces a source of uncertainty into the vulnerability analysis process: a quantitative assessment of the performance of the classification model (in terms of accuracy and confidence in the assignments) is thus in order. Three different app oaches are here considered to this aim: (i) a model–retrieval‐based approach, (ii) the bootstrap method, and (iii) the leave‐one‐out cross‐validation technique. The analyses are presented with reference to an exemplificative case study involving the vulnerability assessment of nuclear power plants.     

Topological Performance Measures as Surrogates for Physical Flow Models for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis for Electric Power Systems

Critical infrastructure systems must be both robust and resilient in order to ensure the functioning of society. To improve the performance of such systems, we often use risk and vulnerability analysis to find and address system weaknesses. A critical component of such analyses is the ability to accurately determine the negative consequences of various types of failures in the system. Numerous mathematical and simulation models exist that can be used to this end. However, there are relatively few studies comparing the implications of using different modeling approaches in the context of comprehensive risk analysis of critical infrastructures. In this article, we suggest a classification of these models, which span from simple topologically‐oriented models to advanced physical‐flow‐based models. Here, we focus on electric power systems and present a study aimed at understanding the tradeoffs between simplicity and fidelity in models used in the context of risk analysis. Specifically, the purpose of this article is to compare performance estimates achieved with a spectrum of approaches typically used for risk and vulnerability analysis of electric power systems and evaluate if more simplified topological measures can be combined using statistical methods to be used as a surrogate for physical flow models. The results of our work provide guidance as to appropriate models or combinations of models to use when analyzing large‐scale critical infrastructure systems, where simulation times quickly become insurmountable when using more advanced models, severely limiting the extent of analyses that can be performed.     

监察委员会人事管理与约束监督刍议

《监察法》的出台标志着监察制度改革的成果在法律层次上的确认,是国家在政治体制上进行顶层设计的一件大事。“一府一委两院”的政治新格局初步形成,深化监察制度改革依然是健全完善国家监督体系的重要路径。监察委员会的出现不同以往政治体制的改革,使行政监察迈向国家监察,监察制度实现了质的飞跃,其人事管理和“超级机关”的潜在威胁是不容忽视的。基于法治建设中具有普适价值的独立性与权力制约两原则,从人才选拔、人事培养到人事考核探索监察委员会的人事管理,从党的领导和外部机关约束监督的视角思量监察委员会的被监督问题。     

A more powerful unconditional exact test of homogeneity for 2 × c contingency table analysis

The classical unconditional exact p-value test can be used to compare two multinomial distributions with small samples. This general hypothesis requires parameter estimation under the null which makes the test severely conservative. Similar property has been observed for Fisher's exact test with Barnard and Boschloo providing distinct adjustments that produce more powerful testing approaches. In this study, we develop a novel adjustment for the conservativeness of the unconditional multinomial exact p-value test that produces nominal type I error rate and increased power in comparison to all alternative approaches. We used a large simulation study to empirically estimate the 5th percentiles of the distributions of the p-values of the exact test over a range of scenarios and implemented a regression model to predict the values for two-sample multinomial settings. Our results show that the new test is uniformly more powerful than Fisher's, Barnard's, and Boschloo's tests with gains in power as large as several hundred percent in certain scenarios. Lastly, we provide a real-life data example where the unadjusted unconditional exact test wrongly fails to reject the null hypothesis and the corrected unconditional exact test rejects the null appropriately.     

Ratio tests under limiting normality

We propose a class of ratio tests that is applicable whenever a cumulation (of transformed) data is asymptotically normal upon appropriate normalization. The Karhunen–Loève theorem is employed to compute weighted averages. The test statistics are ratios of quadratic forms of these averages and hence scale-invariant, also called self-normalizing: The scaling parameter cancels asymptotically. Limiting distributions are obtained. Critical values and asymptotic local power functions can be calculated by standard numerical means. The ratio tests are directed against local alternatives and turn out to be almost as powerful as optimal competitors, without being plagued by nuisance parameters at the same time. Also in finite samples they perform well relative to self-normalizing competitors.     

珠江三角洲企业营销由粗放型向集约型转变的探讨

珠江三角洲的市场营销在由粗放型向集约型转变中涌现了一些集约型营销搞得较好的企业,具体表现有：善于发现市场机会,扩大市场需求;重视产品高新系列化,提高市场竞争力;重视分销和促销;工商携手、开拓市场;树立社会营销观念,提高企业的知名度和企业形象等