Assessing the Performance of a Classification‐Based Vulnerability Analysis Model

In this article, a classification model based on the majority rule sorting (MR‐Sort) method is employed to evaluate the vulnerability of safety‐critical systems with respect to malevolent intentional acts. The model is built on the basis of a (limited‐size) set of data representing (a priori known) vulnerability classification examples. The empirical construction of the classification model introduces a source of uncertainty into the vulnerability analysis process: a quantitative assessment of the performance of the classification model (in terms of accuracy and confidence in the assignments) is thus in order. Three different app oaches are here considered to this aim: (i) a model–retrieval‐based approach, (ii) the bootstrap method, and (iii) the leave‐one‐out cross‐validation technique. The analyses are presented with reference to an exemplificative case study involving the vulnerability assessment of nuclear power plants.     

Topological Performance Measures as Surrogates for Physical Flow Models for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis for Electric Power Systems

Critical infrastructure systems must be both robust and resilient in order to ensure the functioning of society. To improve the performance of such systems, we often use risk and vulnerability analysis to find and address system weaknesses. A critical component of such analyses is the ability to accurately determine the negative consequences of various types of failures in the system. Numerous mathematical and simulation models exist that can be used to this end. However, there are relatively few studies comparing the implications of using different modeling approaches in the context of comprehensive risk analysis of critical infrastructures. In this article, we suggest a classification of these models, which span from simple topologically‐oriented models to advanced physical‐flow‐based models. Here, we focus on electric power systems and present a study aimed at understanding the tradeoffs between simplicity and fidelity in models used in the context of risk analysis. Specifically, the purpose of this article is to compare performance estimates achieved with a spectrum of approaches typically used for risk and vulnerability analysis of electric power systems and evaluate if more simplified topological measures can be combined using statistical methods to be used as a surrogate for physical flow models. The results of our work provide guidance as to appropriate models or combinations of models to use when analyzing large‐scale critical infrastructure systems, where simulation times quickly become insurmountable when using more advanced models, severely limiting the extent of analyses that can be performed.     

监察委员会人事管理与约束监督刍议

《监察法》的出台标志着监察制度改革的成果在法律层次上的确认,是国家在政治体制上进行顶层设计的一件大事。“一府一委两院”的政治新格局初步形成,深化监察制度改革依然是健全完善国家监督体系的重要路径。监察委员会的出现不同以往政治体制的改革,使行政监察迈向国家监察,监察制度实现了质的飞跃,其人事管理和“超级机关”的潜在威胁是不容忽视的。基于法治建设中具有普适价值的独立性与权力制约两原则,从人才选拔、人事培养到人事考核探索监察委员会的人事管理,从党的领导和外部机关约束监督的视角思量监察委员会的被监督问题。     

A more powerful unconditional exact test of homogeneity for 2 × c contingency table analysis

The classical unconditional exact p-value test can be used to compare two multinomial distributions with small samples. This general hypothesis requires parameter estimation under the null which makes the test severely conservative. Similar property has been observed for Fisher's exact test with Barnard and Boschloo providing distinct adjustments that produce more powerful testing approaches. In this study, we develop a novel adjustment for the conservativeness of the unconditional multinomial exact p-value test that produces nominal type I error rate and increased power in comparison to all alternative approaches. We used a large simulation study to empirically estimate the 5th percentiles of the distributions of the p-values of the exact test over a range of scenarios and implemented a regression model to predict the values for two-sample multinomial settings. Our results show that the new test is uniformly more powerful than Fisher's, Barnard's, and Boschloo's tests with gains in power as large as several hundred percent in certain scenarios. Lastly, we provide a real-life data example where the unadjusted unconditional exact test wrongly fails to reject the null hypothesis and the corrected unconditional exact test rejects the null appropriately.     

Ratio tests under limiting normality

We propose a class of ratio tests that is applicable whenever a cumulation (of transformed) data is asymptotically normal upon appropriate normalization. The Karhunen–Loève theorem is employed to compute weighted averages. The test statistics are ratios of quadratic forms of these averages and hence scale-invariant, also called self-normalizing: The scaling parameter cancels asymptotically. Limiting distributions are obtained. Critical values and asymptotic local power functions can be calculated by standard numerical means. The ratio tests are directed against local alternatives and turn out to be almost as powerful as optimal competitors, without being plagued by nuisance parameters at the same time. Also in finite samples they perform well relative to self-normalizing competitors.     

珠江三角洲企业营销由粗放型向集约型转变的探讨

珠江三角洲的市场营销在由粗放型向集约型转变中涌现了一些集约型营销搞得较好的企业,具体表现有：善于发现市场机会,扩大市场需求;重视产品高新系列化,提高市场竞争力;重视分销和促销;工商携手、开拓市场;树立社会营销观念,提高企业的知名度和企业形象等     

夜盘交易对中国农产品期货市场定价权的影响

基于信息溢出视角,利用DCE与CBOT豆油期货连续合约收盘价数据,实证分析了夜盘交易启动对中国农产品期货市场定价权的影响。研究结果表明：夜盘交易的启动,未能有效提升DCE豆油期货对CBOT豆油期货的收益溢出效应,CBOT豆油期货对DCE豆油期货的收益溢出始终处于强势地位。夜盘交易前,CBOT对DCE豆油期货的波动溢出效应显著强于后者对前者的波动溢出效应,而夜盘交易的启动有效改善了这一现状;夜盘交易启动后,DCE与CBOT豆油期货呈现双向显著的波动溢出效应。综合来看,夜盘交易影响DCE向CBOT信息溢出的主要渠道为波动溢出而非收益溢出,夜盘交易未能有效提升以DCE豆油期货为代表的中国农产品期货市场定价权。     

重思邻避困境的风险沟通与治理问题:基于核电的讨论

如何赢得民意和社会许可已经是目前国内核电风险设施选址过程中的主要障碍。而要破解该难题,我们既需要在微观层面针对潜在风险承担者的利益补偿,针对风险感知差异之重点群体开展理性沟通和共识协商,同时也更需要宏观层面的制度建设,通过制度化措施来缓解社会不信任,将我国在环评和社会稳评等风险沟通领域的相关制度安排落实为具体实践,并突破结构性障碍,在风险协商治理方面创新政治过程和制度,以制度的确定性来适应,甚至控制技术风险的不确定性。     

地区官员腐败与企业代理成本——基于中国上市公司的实证研究

与已有围绕腐败对经济增长、财富分配、社会稳定等宏观效应的研究不同,文章将宏观制度环境与微观企业决策有机结合起来,重点考察官员腐败对企业代理成本的影响效应和传导机理.基于中国A股上市公司2000-2012年面板数据的实证研究表明,官员腐败显著提升了企业代理成本.具体表现为,随着企业所在地区官员腐败程度的上升,企业费用率显著增加,资产利用率则显著降低.研究还发现,相对于国有企业,官员腐败对非国有企业代理成本的影响效应更明显;同时,市场化改革也有利于缓解官员腐败对企业代理成本的影响强度.     

论明初的皇权统治与出版

明代出版被普遍认为是中国古代出版的巅峰,但事实上明代各个阶段的出版活动呈现出较大差异。在明初的洪武至宣德时期,出版活动陷入了一个低谷,活跃程度和整体态势甚至不及元末,其主要原因在于该时期的出版受到皇权专制统治思想的制约,主要表现为:明初统治者对图书出版的重视在一定程度上囿于制书出版,对民间出版基本上一致表现为严控与压制,其目的在于进行思想教化,维护专制统治。另外,明初文人在专制统治的政治背景下被皇权集体压制,致使他们的社会地位不高,命运悲惨,这也使私人出版行为受到严重打击。从宏观形态来看,明初的出版事实上成为皇权统治的工具,体现了当时的一种统治思想。