Bayesian Data Analysis of Severe Fatal Accident Risk in the Oil Chain

We analyze the risk of severe fatal accidents causing five or more fatalities and for nine different activities covering the entire oil chain. Included are exploration and extraction, transport by different modes, refining and final end use in power plants, heating or gas stations. The risks are quantified separately for OECD and non‐OECD countries and trends are calculated. Risk is analyzed by employing a Bayesian hierarchical model yielding analytical functions for both frequency (Poisson) and severity distributions (Generalized Pareto) as well as frequency trends. This approach addresses a key problem in risk estimation—namely the scarcity of data resulting in high uncertainties in particular for the risk of extreme events, where the risk is extrapolated beyond the historically most severe accidents. Bayesian data analysis allows the pooling of information from different data sets covering, for example, the different stages of the energy chains or different modes of transportation. In addition, it also inherently delivers a measure of uncertainty. This approach provides a framework, which comprehensively covers risk throughout the oil chain, allowing the allocation of risk in sustainability assessments. It also permits the progressive addition of new data to refine the risk estimates. Frequency, severity, and trends show substantial differences between the activities, emphasizing the need for detailed risk analysis.     

Risk Perception in the U.K. Oil and Gas Production Industry: Are Expert Loss‐Prevention Managers' Perceptions Different From Those of Members of the Public?

This article investigates potential differences in risk perception between experts (loss-prevention managers in the U.K. oil and gas production industry) and nonexperts (managers and students). Extant research on expert versus nonexpert perceptions of risk is reviewed, followed by the present study concerning risk perceptions of seven pen-picture scenarios involving the occurrence of hazardous events in the U.K. oil and gas production industry. In contrast to many of the earlier studies of expert versus nonexpert perceptions of risk, the present analysis concludes that experts did not judge the overall riskiness of the portrayed hazardous events as less risky than the nonexperts. Nevertheless, the experts believe more strongly than our nonexperts that the risks portrayed in the scenarios pose little threat to future generations, are more precisely known, and are relatively controllable. Use of multiple regression analysis to help uncover the basis of overall riskiness assessments for expert and lay respondents was inconclusive, however. Finally, little evidence was found that nonexperts were any more heterogeneous in their risk perceptions than experts. It may be that the nature of the risks assessed in the present study may account for the general lack of clear expert versus nonexpert differences in overall perceptions of the riskiness of hazardous events in the North Sea. Earlier findings of strong expert versus nonexpert differences in risk perception assessed hazards of major public concern. It is inferred that using such extreme hazards may have resulted in an exaggerated view of differences in expert versus public (nonexpert) perception of risk.     

克拉玛依九9 区齐古组稠油提高开发效果研究

克拉玛依油田九9 区齐古组油藏由于埋藏浅，地层胶结疏松，汽窜出砂严重，影响了油井的生产效果。针对该油藏逐步进入蒸汽吞吐的中后期，采出程度高，油井高含水，产能低，边底水侵入，开采难度加大，产量递减加快，开发效益下降等现状，为了改善油藏整体开发效果，选择该油藏有代表性的井组，利用数值模拟方法对其进行下步开发方案设计与指标预测。数值模拟结果符合油田开发实际。研究表明：克拉玛依油田九9 区齐古组油藏吞吐生产后转连续蒸汽驱对改善生产效果，提高采收率具有一定的积极的作用。     

“造势”与“控势”:环境抗争中农村精英的辩证法

农村精英的资源动员能力及其人生经历促使其成为环境抗争的领导者,而环境抗争走向依赖于他们的“造势”与“控势”能力。农村精英通过问题化、促进问题进入政策议程和借助时势等“造势”策略,扩大了事件的社会影响。与此同时,为防止体制外行为和政治风险,他们通过弱组织化、理性化和踩线而不越线等策略进行“控势”。因此,农村精英在环境抗争中扮演着社会减震器作用。政府部门需要认识到农村精英在环境抗争中的正功能,并主动与其建立对话机制。这不仅有助于建立利益受损者的环境维权机制,也可从根本上维系社会稳定。     

含氮硼酸酯对蓖麻油润滑性能的影响

为改善植物油的润滑性能,探索含氮硼酸酯作为添加剂应用于植物油的可行性,以蓖麻油为基础油,某含氮硼酸 酯为添加剂,配制4种不同质量分数的混合蓖麻油,分别在红外光谱仪、热重分析仪、四球摩擦磨损试验机、扫描电子显 微镜( SEM)上考察其理化性能和润滑性能,探讨含氮硼酸酯对蓖麻油的作用机理。结果表明：该含氮硼酸酯与蓖麻油具 有良好的相溶性和水解稳定性的油基润滑添加剂,并且可以明显改善蓖麻油的抗磨减摩性能。     

清末陕西延长油矿创办始末

清末陕西延长油矿的试办,是我国近代石油工业之发端,在我国民族工业史上占有十分重要的地位。它结束了中国几千年没有石油工业的历史,填补了中国民族工业的一项空白,且成功抵制了西方各国对中国矿权的掠夺,有效地保护了民族利权。     

我国大豆企业“走出去”发展战略研究

大豆是我国的传统优势产业,然而在外资的强大冲击下,我国大豆企业处境艰难,突出表现为:2000年至2012年,进出口量差距日益悬殊;国内产量与单产持续低迷;进口依存度居高不下,近12年的均值为78.7％,最近4年的均值甚至超过90％;种植面积连年缩减.为了破解困局,本文选取控制我国50％以上大豆加工能力和80％进口大豆货源的美国ADM等四大国际粮油巨头作为我国大豆企业的重要竞争对手,阐释彼此优劣势,提出“借外补内”的发展思路及“走出去”发展战略选择,提出加大政府扶持、加快技术创新、加强国外种植支撑体系、发展多元化品种的战略举措,以振兴我国大豆产业.     

如何保障能源安全——以印度炼油业为中心的考察

能源安全的保障是保障国家利益的重要议题。能源安全不仅指谋得更多的份额油供应,能源供应的下游链条同样值得关注。实际上炼油业的发展壮大会从经济资源储备、环境以及地缘政治等多方面对国内能源安全状况的改善产生积极的促进作用。以印度为例,印度是一次能源的进口大国,同时又是汽油、柴油等二次能源的出口大国,目前已是亚洲第二大油品净出口国,这一特殊能源供需格局的形成与其国内炼油业的发展密切相关,其成长与繁荣离不开政府的支持,而其本身又成了印度政府缓解本国能源紧张的得力工具。     

墨西哥湾石油泄漏危机管理中的美国软实力及其对中国政府的启示——基于对BP公司石油泄漏案的利益相关者研究

美国软实力的构成中,除了文化、政治价值观和外交政策外,还包括跨国公司控制力。在BP石油泄漏危机管理中,美国政府、石油行业、当地民众、非政府组织、新闻媒体、BP公司利益相关者之间存在着制衡关系,而起关键推动作用的是美国政府和媒体。通过"飓风效应"和"螺旋桨模型"的分析,揭示了美国政府在BP公司石油泄漏危机治理中运用跨国公司控制力、发挥软实力的内在社会机制。对中国政府如何运用软实力,管理由跨国公司引发的公共危机方面提出了三点建议。     

康菲中国溢油事件法律适用溯及既往的法理分析

针对康菲中国溢油损害赔偿诉讼中法律适用溯及既往的合法性和法律程序进行法理分析,提出并论证对于海洋生态损害赔偿可以在我国《海洋生态损害国家索赔条例》正式实施后溯及既往地适用的合法性。提出对于赔偿范围的确定,可以在即将发布的《海洋生态损害国家索赔条例》中明确规定《海洋溢油生态损害评估技术导则》的法律适用。论证国家海洋局溯及既往地撤销已经发放的渤海石油开发许可的合法性。通过归纳各国法院承认纯经济损失赔偿案例的各种情形,演绎出对传统海事法进行突破从而解开油污损害纯经济损失戈耳迪难结的限定条件,对将康菲中国溢油事件所造成的纯经济损失纳入损害赔偿范围的合法性进行法理分析。