中国石油消费与经济发展之间经济计量分析——基于产业层面的研究

本文分析了中国经济发展过程中石油消费总量的变化趋势,并对1985~2006年不同产业的石油消费和产业增加值等基本状况进行了深入研究。在此基础上,运用协整理论和Granger因果关系检验理论,按照不同的产业对中国石油消费和产业增加值之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明,中国第一、三产业石油消费量与产业增加值之间不存在相关关系,中国第二产业的石油消费量与产业增加值之间存在正相关关系,但无因果关系。     

高产、高油、大粒油菜新品种“绵油8号”的选育

绵油8号采用优势互补的优良亲本杂交,通过基因重组、分离和连续定向选择培育而成。其主要优点是产籽量高、含油量高、种子和荚果等农艺性状的商品性好,抗逆性强、适应性广。两年省区试平均比对照增产10．7％,其中增产点增产16.22％;种子含油量比对照高4.4个百分点。适宜在川西、川北等地区推广应用。     

On the strategic project management process in the UK upstream oil and gas sector

This paper reports on an investigation into strategic project management in the UK upstream oil and gas sector. The management process is represented by a set of elements which covers context, content and output and are balanced across financial, internal business, external environment, and learning and innovation perspectives. The paper uncovers elements that appear to explain successful project management and compares these with the elements to which managers pay greatest attention. There appears to be a mismatch between those elements which are associated with success and those receiving significant management attention.     

黄金是否为原油的“避险天堂”?——基于组合收益及其波动视角

本文从资产组合极端收益以及资产组合波动两个视角分析了原油与黄金资产的风险问题。实证结果表明,原油与黄金市场间的联动关系具有动态变化特征,在市场极端危机阶段显著减弱。在资产组合收益视角下,当原油市场处于极端风险时,黄金不是原油的"避险天堂"资产。然而,在资产组合收益的波动视角下,原油与黄金投资组合在一定程度上可以降低资产风险暴露,特别是在2008年下半年金融危机阶段以及2014年下半年原油市场暴跌阶段,资产风险显著降低。     

国际油价、美国经济不确定性和中国股市的波动溢出效应研究

2008年金融危机以来的全球股市震荡,油价波动剧烈和经济的不确定性使得研究不同市场间的风险传导效应具有重要的意义。在综合评价现有研究的缺陷和既有改进方法的情况后,本文借鉴Diebold and Yilmaz （2012）的研究方法探索国际原油价格、美国经济不确定性和中国股市的波动溢出效应。本文选取1986年1月到2016年12月原油价格、美国经济不确定性指数和中国股票价格的月度数据,分别研究了静态波动溢出指数,动态波动溢出指数并做出了非线性检验。实证结果表明：变量国际油价解释了大部分的波动。方向性溢出指数是双向的和非对称的。在整个样本阶段系统的波动主要来自其他变量的冲击,变量国际油价的溢出效应占比重较大。变量国际油价、美国经济不确定性和中国股价对其他变量的波动溢出都存在非线性效应,前两者的正向变量的溢出效应较大,负向变量的溢出效应较小;后者的正向变量的溢出效应较小,负向变量的溢出效应较大。     

Relationships between psychological capital,job satisfaction,and organizational commitment in the Saudi oil and petrochemical industries

During the past decade, Saudi Arabia experienced a significant social, economic, and organizational change. The rapid economic growth created a need for seasoned management professionals and necessitated the development of human capital. Psychological capital, a newly developed construct by academics and practitioners, is defined as the extent to which an individual operates in a positive psychological state, and this state is characterized by high self-efficacy, optimism, hope, and resiliency. By measuring the positive psychological constructs, an organization can learn about employees’ positive psychological states and how training and support can promote positive psychological states. Improving the positive psychological capital can lead to better organizational commitment, favorable organizational citizenship behaviors, lower employee absenteeism, and higher job satisfaction. This quantitative study examined the relationship among psychological capital, job satisfaction, and organizational commitment through a sample of managers in the Saudi Arabian oil and petrochemical industries.     

Dependence between oil and commodities markets using time-varying Archimedean copulas and effectiveness of hedging strategies

The aim of this work is to study in a first step the dependence between oil and some commodity prices (cotton, rice, wheat, sucre, coffee, and silver) using copula theory, and then in a second step to determine the optimal hedging strategy for oil–commodity portfolio against the risk of negative variation in commodity markets prices. The model is implemented with an AR-GARCH model with innovations that follow t distribution for the marginal distribution and the extreme value copula for the joint distribution and parameters and dependence indices are re-estimated in each new day which allow taking into account nonlinear dependence, tails behavior, and their development over time. Various copula functions are used to model the dependence structure between oil and commodity markets. Empirical results show an increase in the dependence during the last 6 years. Volatility for commodity prices registered record levels in the same time with the increase in uncertainty. Optimal hedging ratio varies over time as a consequence of the change in the dependence structure.     

A Bayesian-loss function-based method in assessing loss caused by ship-source oil spills in the arctic area

It is difficult to assess the risk of ship-source oil spills in Arctic waters for insurance purposes due to many unknowns and the lack of reliable data. However, maritime activities in the Arctic area continue to grow, indicating the urgent needs for the development of innovative methods to estimate loss from potential ship-source oil spills in the Arctic area. To fill this gap, we develop a hybrid Bayesian-loss function-based method to assess ship-source oil spill-related loss and implement an illustrative test on Baffin Island, Nunavut in Canada. The results confirm that our method can accurately assess loss and, subsequently, develop reliable insurance premiums for shipping activities in the Arctic area. This enables governmental and nongovernmental organizations alike to use the method as a reliable loss estimation mechanism for ship-source oil spills. Also, it is a valuable tool in designing measures for safer and more resilient Arctic shipping.     

2018年国际原油价格分析与趋势预测

2017年,随着世界经济的复苏和OPEC主导的限产协定效果的显现,下半年国际原油市场持续攀升。2018年的油价将延续2017年的走势。从全球经济形势、供需基本面因素、美元汇率和地缘政治风险等方面,对2018年油价走势进行了发展态势展望和预测分析。综合考虑影响油价涨跌正负效应,在当前全球经济形势、国际原油供给和油价影响因素态势发展下,2018年油价将会相对稳定,全年或将出现阶段性大幅度涨跌,但是整体还将保持上升态势,预计Brent、WTI原油均价将会达到54~64美元/桶和52~62美元/桶。     

期现货市场对现货价格引导关系研究——以中、加菜籽油期货为例

期现货市场对现货价格的引导关系反映期货市场价格发现功能的发挥程度,现代农产品价格体系的建立不仅包括现货市场,还关系到农产品期货市场作用的发挥。本文结合与加拿大的参照对比,采用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和方差分解方法分析我国菜籽油期现货价格和加拿大油菜籽期现货价格的关联性,得到结论如下：中加市场上期现货价格存在长期均衡关系,且期货价格单向引导现货价格;相比加拿大,中国现货市场价格变化来自期货市场的影响在长期比自身现货市场的大;中国现货市场受国际影响小。