从财务角度分析特别收益金对我国三大石油垄断企业的影响

我国三大石油集团公司是带有国有企业性质的垄断企业。自2006年3月26日起,国家对石油开采企业销售国产原油因价格超过一定水平获得的超额收入按比例征收特别收益金。征收特别收益金后对三大企业的营运能力、偿债能力影响不大,对盈利能力影响较大,但是仍然没有从根本上解决三大企业攫取巨额利润的趋势。征收特别收益金的制度也不尽合理,亟待完善。     

不同突发事件下进口原油采购策略

石油对经济生活的重要性不言而喻,中国原油的高对外依存度及集中的进口来源区域引起我们对能源安全的广泛关注,如何有效最小化国际原油价格波动和供应短缺或中断带来的风险,制定突发事件影响下的最佳采购策略是我们必需关注的焦点,但目前结合突发事件的采购策略研究还不足。论文通过采用符合中国原油进口习惯的月度数据,建立了突发事件下的CVaR模型,综合考虑价格波动、供应中断造成的GDP冲击和战略石油储备因素,分析三种不同突发事件情景下的原油进口采购策略。研究表明：当预期中东区域出现危机时,非洲和欧洲/俄罗斯是增加采购量的理想选择,若迪拜价格波动不剧烈,亚太采购量也可适当增加;对于仅仅只有价格变动,动用战略石油储备降低风险有限,只有当供给中断时,动用战略储备才能发挥巨大的降低风险,更好的减少对国民经济冲击的作用。本文在最小化原油进口风险值且同时考虑进口来源多样化、风险、成本及价格变动率的情况下,构建的基于CVaR的应急原油进口采购策略模型,丰富了该领域的研究成果,为中国原油进口采购策略提供了具体可操作的参考。     

Local volunteers respond to the Rena oil spill in Maketū, New Zealand

Following the MV Rena grounding and oil spill in the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand in October 2011, the Māori community of Maketū were quick to respond to the arrival of oil on their beaches. They asserted their rangatiratanga by establishing their marae as a base and successfully coordinated a clean-up by more than 450 volunteers, feeding these volunteers every day. We interviewed 11 clean-up leaders and volunteers in Maketū to gather information about how the oil spill affected people in the community and how they ensured the success of their clean-up efforts. Many volunteers returned to help with the clean-up day after day over several weeks. Concepts of kaitiakitanga and manaakitanga underpinned the work of the Maketū clean-up organisers. Participants attributed the success of the Maketū clean-up to the speed with which they responded, the support they received from their community and local businesses, and their local knowledge.     

构建石油企业国际竞争力评价指标的探索

近年来,国际国内油价的持续走低对石油企业的生产经营产生了巨大的影响。当前,我国已经成为世界主要的石油生产国和进口国,同时也面临着前所未有的挑战。面对复杂的国际市场和严峻的竞争形势,必须对我国石油企业的国际竞争力进行科学、合理的测评,以便制定针对性的对策和建议。运用因子分析法,结合我国石油企业的特点,选择整体规模实力、获利盈利能力、资源开发生产能力、可持续发展能力、国际化水平等代表性指标,构建出我国石油企业国际竞争力评价指标体系。运用这一体系对我国石油企业的国际竞争力进行实证分析,结果表明：我国石油企业的国际运营能力、盈利能力相对薄弱,应大力实施“走出去战略”,积极整合企业实力与全球资源,不断提升其国际竞争力。     

基于作业成本法的物流成本核算模型及其应用研究

通过对物流成本构成的系统分析,提出了基于作业成本法的物流成本核算模型,结合中国石油长庆石油勘探局物资采购与供应管理的实际需要,通过分析建立资源费用库、作业成本库和成本动因评估与分摊等过程,对物流的作业(活动)成本进行了核算,并进一步提出了管理费用分摊模型,为石油勘探企业的物流成本管理提供了依据.     

边底水稠油油藏开发规律研究

胜利油区蕴藏着丰富的稠油资源,但大多具有活跃的边底水。在注蒸汽吞吐长期降压开采过程中,油藏压力下降导致边底水推进,水淹井区含水急剧上升,水侵范围不断扩大,水侵区控制储量占总动用储量的70％左右。为了提高边底水稠油油藏的最终采收率,提出将单井乙型水驱特征曲线用于稠油油藏,并结合水侵现状将整个油藏划分为不同的井区：强水侵区、弱水侵区、无水侵区和外层水侵。运用稠油渗流的知识,分析了不同井区的开发指标的变化规律。不同井区暴露的开发矛盾不同,根据不同矛盾采取不同的调整方案,效果显著。     

神经网络和卡尔曼算法在石油需求预测中的应用

分析中国1978—2009年影响石油需求的8个相关指标数据。将指标分成3组,通过每组指标的数据分别用广义回归神经网络和误差反向传播神经网络（GRNN和BPNN）方法对2013年的中国石油需求量进行预测,并对其预测结果进行比较。进一步采用神经网络平均影响值（Mean Impact Value,MIV）方法,从影响石油需求时间序列的相关指标数据中筛选出对石油需求影响最大的5个变量。用选出的5个变量,根据AIC准则确定了时间序列的阶数,并建立了石油需求的AR时间序列模型。采用卡尔曼滤波算法和Rauch-Tung-Striebel（RTS）算法对AR模型进行了后验估计。卡尔曼滤波算法使得模型参数得以更新,且相关仿真结果表明,对于AR模型的输出起到较好的修正作用,从而提高了模型的预测精度。     

Dynamics of Contention

Since its launch in Totnes 2005, the Transition Network has achieved considerable success and expansion. Here, I explore the movement's aims and organisation and discuss its evolution in relation to the obstacles it has faced. My discussion draws on both my auto-ethnographic encounters with the movement in Transition Nottingham and the 2010 Transition Network conference and the literature produced by movement actors.     

空气低温氧化体系对稠油组成的影响

通过对辽河稠油进行低温氧化模拟实验, 考察了不同体系氧化反应前后气相组成、 稠油组成及性质的改变情况。结果表明： 稠油与空气发生的低温氧化反应属于吸氧反应, 催化氧化反应使气体中氧气含量下降到 2.71%, 消耗了空气中 87% 的氧, 氧化使稠油酸值及黏度增大; 加水催化氧化使稠油中胶质含量降低13.95%, 沥青质含量上升 4.81%, 胶质、 沥青质总含量降低, 重组分降解了 17.94%; 环烷酸盐催化剂体系对稠油有良好的催化活性, 促进了稠油氧化和裂解; 水在稠油空气低温催化氧化过程中起到了促进重组分裂解的作用。     

An Application of Master Schedule Smoothing and Planned Lead Time Control

Make‐to‐order (MTO) manufacturers must ensure concurrent availability of all parts required for production, as any unavailability may cause a delay in completion time. A major challenge for MTO manufacturers operating under high demand variability is to produce customized parts in time to meet internal production schedules. We present a case study of a producer of MTO offshore oil rigs that highlights the key aspects of the problem. The producer was faced with an increase in both demand and demand variability. Consequently, it had to rely heavily on subcontracting to handle production requirements that were in excess of its capacity. We focused on the manufacture of customized steel panels, which represent the main sub‐assemblies for building an oil rig. We considered two key tactical parameters: the planning window of the master production schedule and the planned lead time of each workstation. Under the constraint of a fixed internal delivery lead time, we determined the optimal planning parameters. This improvement effort reduced the subcontracting cost by implementing several actions: the creation of a master schedule for each sub‐assembly family of the steel panels, the smoothing of the master schedule over its planning window, and the controlling of production at each workstation by its planned lead time. We report our experience in applying the analytical model, the managerial insights gained, and how the application benefits the oil‐rig producer.