Ambiguity aversion in the small and in the large for weighted linear utility

The widely observed preference for lotteries involving precise rather than vague of ambiguous probabilities is called ambiguity aversion. Ambiguity aversion cannot be predicted or explained by conventional expected utility models. For the subjectively weighted linear utility (SWLU) model, we define both probability and payoff premiums for ambiguity, and introduce alocal ambiguity aversion function a(u) that is proportional to these ambiguity premiums for small uncertainties. We show that one individual's ambiguity premiums areglobally larger than another's if and only if hisa(u) function is everywhere larger. Ambiguity aversion has been observed to increase 1) when the mean probability of gain increases and 2) when the mean probability of loss decreases. We show that such behavior is equivalent toa(u) increasing in both the gain and loss domains. Increasing ambiguity aversion also explains the observed excess of sellers' over buyers' prices for insurance against an ambiguous probability of loss.     

Operator performance and subjective response in control of flexible manufacturing systems

In this study, allocation of functions and system size (number of machines) were manipulated to test their effects on operator performance and subjective response in a flexible manufacturing system (FMS). An experiment was conducted using a cross-over design with three independent variables: number of machines, task allocation, and sequence of task presentation. Operator performance was measured by response time, and subjective response assessed using two questionnaires. Physiological measures were also taken (EKG and respiratory rate). The results revealed that the number of machines in the system did not affect performance or subjective or physiological response while the effect of allocation level was significant for both performance and subjective response.     

对"一事一议"制度的几点反思

农村税费改革必然带来原有农村公共产品供给制度的解体,而现阶段在广大农村实行的"一事一议",由于流动人口、宗族势力、农民贫穷等诸多因素的影响,在实践中达不到理论上的最优解,甚至可能得到一些我们所不愿意看到的结果。找出在实践中影响"一事一议"达到最优均衡的各项因素,并从制度的角度加以分析,是有益的解决思路。     

Understanding Risk Management

Discussions of technological risks and their management by corporations and society are ubiquitous and often acrimonious. Equally ubiquitous are several important misconceptions of key risk questions. This paper (i) argues that serious epistemological confusion pervades much of the scientific basis for risk assessment, especially confusion among objective, subjective, and perceived risk, and between facts and ethical values; and (ii) asserts that this confusion combines with psychological aspects of risk perception to produce a confused risk debate, a societal management of risks often based on diffuse or contradictory objectives, and consequently mismanagement of resource allocation to risk reduction.     

“完全融合”论——中国现代诗学理论研究之一

中国现代诗学史上的"完全融合"论实质上是诗歌创作中"主体"与"客体"的关系论.主流派的观点认为,诗美是诗人精神主体与客观客体相结合的结晶,诗人"主观战斗精神"的有无对于诗歌创作至关重要,主体与客体只有在"对于血肉的现实人生的搏斗"中才可能达到完全的融合,意境与境界的形成是作家的主观与现实的客观"完全融合"的结果.     

破除农民增收的体制障碍

二元经济结构是制约农民增收的最大障碍。落实中央"一号文件"精神,切实增加农民收入,就必须推进征地制度改革的力度,推进粮食流通体制改革的力度,推进农村税费改革的力度,推进农村金融体制改革的力度,推进行政管理体制改革的力度,彻底破除二元经济结构。     

略论WTO体制的“一国四席”

根据WTO体制有关成员资格的规定 ,香港地区、澳门地区、中国和台湾地区相继加入WTO ,形成了“一国四席”的局面。“一国四席”之间的关系既是WTO体制平等成员之间的关系 ,也是一国不同关税区之间的关系。“一国四席”的重要意义是反映国际法的新发展 ,强化国际社会对“一个中国”原则的共识 ,并为两岸四地相互之间建立更紧密的经贸关系提供新契机     

实施“一县一色”战略的理论思考

所谓"一县一色"战略是指各县市为适应激烈的市场竞争环境,谋求县域经济的绝对竞争优势,实现县城经济突破,而实施的围绕一种特色产品从原料到加工、深加工、销售等各环节建立的特色产业群体发展思路."一县一色"正是谋求地方经济持久竞争优势的战略思路,它具有别具一格、集中一点、成本领先、循序渐进的基本特点.实施"一县一色"战略必须以市场为导向,以品牌为基础,以营销为龙头,以制度为保证,以科技为动力.这一战略有利于实现县域规模效益、农民致富、财政增收和城镇发展.在实施"一县一色"战略过程必须注意解决可能出现的一些问题.     

行政处罚中"一事不再罚"原则的适用与例外

行政处罚中"一事不再罚"原则的具体适用问题,在学界和执法部门存在较大争议,原因在于"一事不再罚"原则并未在我国的<行政处罚法>中完全确立,自立法之初就有天生局限性,其适用前提受到特定情形的限制,所以"一事不再罚"原则的适用还有许多例外,为此,执法必须谨慎操作,立法尚需进一步完善.     

"一国两制"科学构想的哲学探析

实事求是是中国特色社会主义理论的精髓和灵魂,"一国两制"就是建立在实事求是的哲学基础之上的."一国两制"的提出符合世界的现实状况和中国的实际,它将推动中国统一大业的实现和民族的振兴,促进世界的和平与发展.