Hazards regression for freemium products and services: a competing risks approach

We propose a competing risks approach to analyse customer behaviours in freemium products and services. The event of interest is when a customer starts to pay for additional features or functionalities. The observation of such an event may be preempted by an event where the customer quits using the product before paying and consuming the additional features or functionalities. One such freemium service is the online game category. The Fine-Gray regression model was implemented for an online game player activity data to study how covariates affect the paying hazard. Some covariates are hypothesized to have different discrete effects at multiple change points. We extend the model to allow for possible change points in the analysis.     

The Value of Weather Information for E‐Commerce Operations

To be efficient, logistics operations in e‐commerce require warehousing and transportation resources to be aligned with sales. Customer orders must be fulfilled with short lead times to ensure high customer satisfaction, and the costly under‐utilization of workers must be avoided. To approach this ideal, forecasting order quantities with high accuracy is essential. Many drivers of online sales, including seasonality, special promotions and public holidays, are well known, and they have been frequently incorporated into forecasting approaches. However, the impact of weather on e‐commerce operations has not been rigorously analyzed. In this study, we integrate weather data into the sales forecasting of the largest European online fashion retailer. We find that sunshine, temperature, and rain have a significant impact on daily sales, particularly in the summer, on weekends, and on days with extreme weather. Using weather forecasts, we have significantly improved sales forecast accuracy. We find that including weather data in the sales forecast model can lead to fewer sales forecast errors, reducing them by, on average, 8.6% to 12.2% and up to 50.6% on summer weekends. In turn, the improvement in sales forecast accuracy has a measurable impact on logistics and warehousing operations. We quantify the value of incorporating weather forecasts in the planning process for the order fulfillment center workforce and show how their incorporation can be leveraged to reduce costs and increase performance. With a perfect information planning scenario, excess costs can be reduced by 11.6% compared with the cost reduction attainable with a baseline model that ignores weather information in workforce planning.     

以合意为基础的物权变动立法模式——兼谈我国《物权法》之相关条文

正确理解物权变动立法模式有助于科学合理地构建我国物权法制度;正确认识和理解物权变动的概念、物权变动的原因、合理地评价物权行为理论是正确解读物权变动立法模式的必要理论前提;对大陆法系国家三种典型的物权变动立法模式之正确理解是正确理解物权变动立法模式的必要立法认识;对大陆法系国家三种典型物权变动立法模式的科学合理的评析是正确解读物权变动立法模式的关键。     

郭正域《文选》评点浅论

郭正域流传到今天的《文选》评本共有三种，它们之间内容都有出入，应皆是依当时流行的评本、又有所选择加工而成。作为较早的文人评本，郭正域的《文选》评点与出现于其前的书商操作评本有着质的差别，在《文选》评点学史上有着重大的价值与意义。在评点中，郭正域表达了对七子派主张的不满，明确提倡六朝文学，强调文学作品的“表情”作用。批评谢灵运作品的独特角度，则有补七子派一味以格调衡文之偏的重要意义。他的评点也提示着当代人对评点著作应给予更多的关注，以免造成文学批评史的遗珠之憾。     

对网络交际的思考

网络交际现今已经成为很多人生活的一部分,通过网络空间人们交流更加便捷,更加丰富。网络交际对我们的现实社会文化和人际交流有着深刻的影响和冲击。网络交际弱化了文化因素对交际主体角色的制约和影响;网络交际的开放性使不同文化的人更容易交流和相互认同,弱化了本土文化对人际交往的影响;网络交际形成的特殊文化,引起了文化的碰撞和交融;网络交际的不真实性加剧了人与人的信任危机;网络交际信息与真实信息的差异,及网络上对他人隐私的侵害给日常生活交际带来了不利的影响。     

从哲学高度研究旅游的可贵尝试——《旅游哲学引论》评介

《旅游哲学引论》从哲学的理论高度，围绕旅游的本质问题展开论述，观点新颖，见解独到，论述精辟，思想深邃，字里行间洋溢着深厚的人文精神和哲理诗思，是一本提高旅游研究层次和旅游哲学素养的开山之作，标志着我国旅游科学研究上升到了一个新的高度。     

贾宝玉至情人性的文化困境

在明清理学思想专制的氛围中，曹雪芹通过宝玉“女儿说”，展现了人与生俱来的至情人性；但在儒释道一体的封闭思想体系下，贾宝玉陷入了困境，或儒或佛，其至情人性终归泯灭。根据人的主体超越性与历史局限性的辩证关系，鲜明地展现了贾宝玉至情人性的文化困境。     

网络游戏产业的发展与管理研究

网络游戏在中国发展大约只有七、八年时间,但其产值增长和社会影响都使人们不得不将它上升到了一个产业的高度去看待和研究。本文从我国网络游戏市场规模入手,对网络游戏的产业链、产业带动性、文化内涵等问题进行讨论,最后指出我国在网络游戏管理中应注意的若干问题并提出建议对策。     

"软评论"的"硬"着陆——以《南方都市报》的"街谈"栏目为例

《南方都市报》"街谈"栏目的基调和表现手法与西方新闻界的"软评论"类似,多采用符合普通百姓接受心理和接受能力的"软性"表达,现身说法,浅显易懂,平易近人。从评论角色上看,评论人往往以当事人的姿态出现,给人一种广播评论的现场感。从评论语气上看,此类评论多是"姑妄言之",侃侃而谈,点到为止。从评论结论上看,作者的立场暗含在对于事件的叙述之中,甚至不做定论。     

网络教育中消除人际交互障碍的策略

首先从目前网络教育中人际交互现状的调查结果出发,分析了人际交互障碍的严重性及其研究的意义;然后从社会心理学的角度分析了网络教育中人际交互障碍的产生原因;最后针对网络教育的特点,给出了消除网络教育中人际交互障碍的部分策略,希望能够帮助网络学习者更快地适应网络学习过程.同时为提高网络教育的整体质量提供启发.