董仲舒的原志定罪论

董仲舒是西汉时的大儒,他的思想体系庞大而复杂,内容涉及政治、经济、法律、历史等许多方面。他的法制思想对中国的封建统治产生很大的影响,其中的原志定罪论的影响较为突出。本文旨在对董仲舒的原志定罪论展开讨论,探讨董仲舒的法制思想。     

人格特质、组织承诺与离职意图关系的实证研究

通过对中国联通安徽分公司131名雇员进行实证分析,考察了个人属性、内外控型人格特质、组织承诺与雇员离职意图的关系。结果发现组织承诺、内外控人格特质对离职意图有显著影响,个人属性中除婚否外,其他属性对离职意图也有显著影响。推测组织承诺将极有可能是个人属性与离职意图间的中介变量,并且对内外控人格特质与离职意图之间的关系具有调节作用。     

消费者重复购买意向及其影响因素的实证研究

探究了感知价值、顾客满意、转移成本和消费时间间隔4个因素对重复购买意向的影响。结果发现感知价值、顾客满意、转移成本对重复购买意向有正相关关系,而消费时间间隔对重复购买意向并无显著的影响关系。同时,感知价值与顾客满意之间存在正向的影响关系,转移成本与顾客满意之间并不存在显著的影响关系。     

网购环境下在线零售商的退货运费承担策略研究

在电子商务环境下，宽松的退货政策能够刺激需求，促进货品销量的增长，但与此同时也导致了退货量的增多。在面临高退货，特别是无缺陷退货不断攀升的挑战下，在线商家应如何制定合理的退货策略成为值得研究的一个问题。本文主要针对退货运费承担问题，重点比较消费者承担退货运费、商家承担退货运费、双方共同承担退货运费三种策略，探讨不同策略下在线零售商的最优定价及其盈利能力。研究结果表明：为实现利润最大化，在线零售商应根据商品的无缺陷退货比例特征选择相应的策略。具体而言，当商品的无缺陷退货比例较低时，宜采用消费者承担退货运费策略；当无缺陷退货比例高时，宜采用商家承担退货运费策略；当无缺陷退货比例居中时，宜采用共同承担退货运费策略。值得注意的是，退货政策的目的是为了刺激需求的增长，但有时退货政策对需求的促进作用不够理想，不能抵消退货的负面影响，那么这种情况下则无论无缺陷退货占比如何，在线零售商的最佳退货策略只能是让消费者承担退货运费，以此避免更多非理性退货行为的发生。     

考虑线下权力结构的制造商线上销售模式选择研究

在线下垂直实力对等、制造商主导和实体店主导三种渠道权力结构下，构建制造商、实体店和电商之间的博弈模型，探讨线下渠道权力结构与制造商线上销售模式的匹配关系。研究结果表明：（1）当电商要求的佣金比例较小时，在不同的线下渠道权力结构下，制造商都应该选择线上代销模式；而当电商要求的佣金比例较大时，在线下垂直实力对等结构下，制造商应该选择线上转销模式，而在制造商主导和实体店主导结构下，制造商应该选择线上代销模式。（2）当制造商选择线上转销模式时，在线下制造商主导的结构下，制造商给予实体店的批发价格最大，在垂直实力对等结构下次之，在实体店主导结构下最小。然而，线下渠道权力结构的差异并不会影响制造商给予电商的批发价格。（3）当制造商选择线上代销模式时，在线下制造商主导结构下，线下销售价格最高；在线下垂直实力对等结构下，线上销售价格最高。     

购物网站的个性化推荐对网络购物体验影响的实证研究

结合网络购物体验和个性化推荐的相关理论，对个性化推荐、网络购物体验、隐私关注之间的关系进行实证研究。通过设计不同的场景和采用问卷调查法收集数据，运用SPSS软件对数据进行多元线性回归分析对研究的问题进行验证和探讨。实证分析结果表明，购物网站推荐的个性化程度与消费者的网络购物体验之间存在正向作用关系，消费者的隐私关注在其中发挥调节作用。     

The Effects of the Facial Expression of Beneficiaries in Charity Appeals and Psychological Involvement on Donation Intentions

To increase the effectiveness of fundraising campaigns, many human‐need charities include pictures of beneficiaries in their ads. However, it is unclear when and why the facial expression of these beneficiaries (sad versus happy) may influence the effectiveness of charity ads. To answer these questions, an experiment was conducted to investigate the effect of the facial expression on donation intentions, while considering the moderating role of psychological involvement with charities. It found that psychological involvement with charities moderated the impact of the facial expression on donation intentions in that seeing a picture of a sad versus happy person increased intentions to give among participants with lower levels of psychological involvement, whereas the reverse was true for highly involved participants. The moderating effect of psychological involvement was fully explained by the perceived efficacy of one's donation. The findings not only contribute to our understanding of the effect of the facial expression of people pictured in charity appeals on donation behavior, but also suggest that nonprofits should tailor their ads to target potential donors with various levels of psychological involvement with charities.     

Hazards regression for freemium products and services: a competing risks approach

We propose a competing risks approach to analyse customer behaviours in freemium products and services. The event of interest is when a customer starts to pay for additional features or functionalities. The observation of such an event may be preempted by an event where the customer quits using the product before paying and consuming the additional features or functionalities. One such freemium service is the online game category. The Fine-Gray regression model was implemented for an online game player activity data to study how covariates affect the paying hazard. Some covariates are hypothesized to have different discrete effects at multiple change points. We extend the model to allow for possible change points in the analysis.     

The Value of Weather Information for E‐Commerce Operations

To be efficient, logistics operations in e‐commerce require warehousing and transportation resources to be aligned with sales. Customer orders must be fulfilled with short lead times to ensure high customer satisfaction, and the costly under‐utilization of workers must be avoided. To approach this ideal, forecasting order quantities with high accuracy is essential. Many drivers of online sales, including seasonality, special promotions and public holidays, are well known, and they have been frequently incorporated into forecasting approaches. However, the impact of weather on e‐commerce operations has not been rigorously analyzed. In this study, we integrate weather data into the sales forecasting of the largest European online fashion retailer. We find that sunshine, temperature, and rain have a significant impact on daily sales, particularly in the summer, on weekends, and on days with extreme weather. Using weather forecasts, we have significantly improved sales forecast accuracy. We find that including weather data in the sales forecast model can lead to fewer sales forecast errors, reducing them by, on average, 8.6% to 12.2% and up to 50.6% on summer weekends. In turn, the improvement in sales forecast accuracy has a measurable impact on logistics and warehousing operations. We quantify the value of incorporating weather forecasts in the planning process for the order fulfillment center workforce and show how their incorporation can be leveraged to reduce costs and increase performance. With a perfect information planning scenario, excess costs can be reduced by 11.6% compared with the cost reduction attainable with a baseline model that ignores weather information in workforce planning.     

非法占有目的：犯罪成立体系的比较

在大陆法系犯罪构成理论发展过程中，目的犯的目的首先作为责任要素，最终发展成为存在于犯罪构成该当、违法、有责之中都存在的要素。在我国的犯罪构成体系中，非法占有目的作为选择要件与犯罪主观方面、犯罪客观方面、犯罪客体都存在有机的联系，非法占有目的在刑法中具有存在的必要性。