施工企业危机管理及其经济分析

危机管理的目的是为了避免和减少危机的损害,是一场"防御性的战斗",也是一项系统工程。论文结合竞争激烈的施工企业市场实际,从施工企业危机管理入手,阐述了施工企业危机管理目前的共性内容,并通过分析对危机管理的重要意义、危机管理效果和经济效果的衡量等问题,进一步通过施工企业危机管理的经济分析对危机管理投入、所得的界定,研究了危机管理投入的量化及归一化,以及危机管理所得的量化及归一化问题,得出单位投入所带来的整体稳定态势,其值越大表明危机管理越有效。可为施工企业开展此项工作提供一定的理论指导。     

改进灰色预测在油田多目标规划决策中的应用

建立了S油田勘探、开发、炼化、机械、公用工程等多个部门和全局的非线性多级目标优化规划模型,应用关联分析、改进灰色预测、回归分析求取规划模型的约束方程并线性化;编制了相应的计算软件,使之快速预测和优化油田各部门“九五”各年的投资和产值;并将优化结果与油田过去或计划值加以对比,给油田规划决策带来一定的参考。     

Estimating household structure in ancient China by using historical data: a latent class analysis of partially missing patterns

Summary.  Social data often contain missing information. The problem is inevitably severe when analysing historical data. Conventionally, researchers analyse complete records only. Listwise deletion not only reduces the effective sample size but also may result in biased estimation, depending on the missingness mechanism. We analyse household types by using population registers from ancient China (618–907 AD) by comparing a simple classification, a latent class model of the complete data and a latent class model of the complete and partially missing data assuming four types of ignorable and non-ignorable missingness mechanisms. The findings show that either a frequency classification or a latent class analysis using the complete records only yielded biased estimates and incorrect conclusions in the presence of partially missing data of a non-ignorable mechanism. Although simply assuming ignorable or non-ignorable missing data produced consistently similarly higher estimates of the proportion of complex households, a specification of the relationship between the latent variable and the degree of missingness by a row effect uniform association model helped to capture the missingness mechanism better and improved the model fit.     

Estimator Choice and Fisher's Paradox: A Monte Carlo Study

This paper argues that Fisher's paradox can be explained away in terms of estimator choice. We analyse by means of Monte Carlo experiments the small sample properties of a large set of estimators (including virtually all available single-equation estimators), and compute the critical values based on the empirical distributions of the t-statistics, for a variety of Data Generation Processes (DGPs), allowing for structural breaks, ARCH effects etc. We show that precisely the estimators most commonly used in the literature, namely OLS, Dynamic OLS (DOLS) and non-prewhitened FMLS, have the worst performance in small samples, and produce rejections of the Fisher hypothesis. If one employs the estimators with the most desirable properties (i.e., the smallest downward bias and the minimum shift in the distribution of the associated t-statistics), or if one uses the empirical critical values, the evidence based on US data is strongly supportive of the Fisher relation, consistently with many theoretical models.     

A study of simulated annealing and a revised cascade algorithm for image reconstruction

We describe an image reconstruction problem and the computational difficulties arising in determining the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate. Two algorithms for tackling the problem, iterated conditional modes (ICM) and simulated annealing, are usually applied pixel by pixel. The performance of this strategy can be poor, particularly for heavily degraded images, and as a potential improvement Jubb and Jennison (1991) suggest the cascade algorithm in which ICM is initially applied to coarser images formed by blocking squares of pixels. In this paper we attempt to resolve certain criticisms of cascade and present a version of the algorithm extended in definition and implementation. As an illustration we apply our new method to a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image. We also carry out a study of simulated annealing, with and without cascade, applied to a more tractable minimization problem from which we gain insight into the properties of cascade algorithms.     

Doing Gender unto the Other: Fiction as a Mode of Studying Gender Discrimination in Organizations

Although ‘doing gender’ has been recently defined as an accomplishment, an element of social practice, this understanding of the concept needs to be extended to coercive action such as subtle workplace discrimination. Even though great effort has been invested in revealing the dynamic of such social practices, the researcher's task is not easy for a variety of reasons. This type of study is difficult to conduct by following traditional research design and many alternative approaches have been tried. This article presents the possibility of using fiction as one possible and relatively unexploited venue of research.     

论琵琶的产生及其发展

琵琶,在古代是所有弹弦乐器的总称。到秦代,专指一种音箱类鼓,两面蒙皮,直项的弹弦乐器,俗称“秦琵琶”,又名“秦汉子”。其初为圆形音箱,后来发展出梨形音箱。到汉代,又出现一种纯木质结构的圆形大音箱,也是直项的弹弦乐器,较“秦琵琶”大很多,俗称“汉琵琶”,又名“阮咸”。到晋代,由西域(中亚新疆一带)经甘肃又传入一种曲项的,用拨子横弹的琵琶。到唐代,集上述琵琶之大成,发展出曲项的、梨形音箱的、用手竖弹的琵琶,即今日琵琶之雏形。在演奏上也进入鼎盛时期,成为乐舞的主要伴奏及领奏乐器。到二十世纪,经过杨荫浏及刘德海等诸位前辈的创新改造,琵琶的发展出现了极其光明的前景。     

提高我国科技成果向生产力转化的能力

运用技术经济理论,对我国科技成果转化存在障碍的原因即科技成果转化资金匮乏、企业技术市场参与度低、对技术的需求拉力不足、进口技术减少了对我国自身科技成果市场需求的空间等进行分析,并对提高我国科技成果向生产力转化的能力提出了对策建议。     

年画的历史渊源及其发展前景

年画是我国传统的民间艺术形式,是中华民族乃至世界文化的重要组成部分,随着时代的变迁和社会的变化,这一曾盛极几个时代的民间艺术逐渐走向了衰落。但是随着时代的发展和人们对于传统文化的重新认识和审视,年画作为一种优秀的俗文化品类很有可能在将来的社会发展过程中变化其审美形式和艺术样式,向具有传统年画装饰意义的新艺术式样蜕变,成为一种新的符合时代要求和社会发展的年画艺术。     

体验、解析、会通——张岱年哲学方法论的综合创新

体验、解析、会通的有机统一,是张岱年《天人五论》所建构的哲学方法论。这种方法论排斥直觉法,因而不同于现代新儒家和清华学派的哲学家;同时,它把辩证法看成一般的学术方法而非独立的哲学方法,这又使其不同于当时的新唯物论者。这种方法论是在综合中西哲学方法以及近现代各派哲学方法基础上的一个综合创造。