学术写作的互动式话语策略

学术写作并非完全机械化,也并非全盘避免作者主观情感的介入。学术作者使用多种话语策略来宣传其观点和立场,营造和谐对话空间,与读者形成良好互动,从而引导读者接受所述命题观点。基于学术语篇互动模型,分别从模糊语策略、作者身份构建方式以及作者与读者的隐性互动三个方面来阐释学术写作中的互动式话语策略。研究表明,每个学科都有其偏好的写作模式,教师应引导学生关注所属学科的语言范式,培养学生的读者意识,并在学术写作中采用积极有效、易于被读者接受的互动策略有力发声,推进研究。     

自主学习在大学英语教学中的定位研究

自主学习是近年来英语教学界的热门话题.,首先论述了自主学习在我国开展的现状,接着简要说明了自主学习的内涵、条件以及自主学习在我国大学英语教学中的定位,并对建构主义理论和多媒体、网络技术相结合条件下的自主式大学英语教学模式与策略提出了探讨性建议。     

FDI对我国三次产业影响作用的实证分析

利用自回归分布滞后(ADL)模型,结合我国1983到2006年的有关数据,对我国FDI对三次产业的影响作用作出实证分析,得出结论,FDI在短期内对我国经济增长起了较大的促进作用,但长期作用不显著.并结合我国经济现状分析了原因,提出要充分发挥其在经济增长中的作用,需调整FDI在三次产业之间以及产业内部的投资结构.     

江西省农村社区可持续发展评价指标模型的构建

提出一种基于三因素（社会-经济-环境）模型的可持续发展指标模型即多因子加权可持续发展指标模型（MWSDI）。在结合江西省情的基础上,提出江西省社区可持续发展指标模型（CSDI）,两种模型在假设情况下进行验证,结果表明,多因子加权模型更能准确反映区域的可持续发展能力。模型综合考虑了多种因素对不同区域可持续发展能力的影响,将可持续发展能力建立在当前和未来两个尺度基础之上,简化了计算成本。且模型简明易懂,能够被人们特别是普通老百姓接受和理解,操作性强,在实践中有很强的指导意义。     

Markov (Set) chains application to predict mortality rates using extended Milevsky–Promislov generalized mortality models

The mortality rates ( μx,t) measure the frequency of deaths in a fixed: population and time interval. The ability to model and forecast μx,t allows determining, among others, fundamental characteristics of life expectancy tables, e.g. used to determine the amount of premium in life insurance, adequate to the risk of death. The article proposes a new method of modelling and forecasting μx,t, using the class of stochastic Milevsky–Promislov switch models with excitations. The excitations are modelled by second, fourth and sixth order polynomials of outputs from the non-Gaussian Linear Scalar Filter (nGLSF) model and taking into account the Markov (Set) chain. The Markov (Set) chain state space is defined based on even orders of the nGLSF polynomial. The model order determines the theoretical values of the death rates. The obtained results usually provide a more precise forecast of the mortality rates than the commonly used Lee–Carter model.     

Statistical inference for a relaxation index of stochastic dominance under density ratio model

Stochastic dominance is usually used to rank random variables by comparing their distributions, so it is widely applied in economics and finance. In actual applications, complete stochastic dominance is too demanding to meet, so relaxation indexes of stochastic dominance have attracted more attention. The π index, the biggest gap between two distributions, can be a measure of the degree of deviation from complete dominance. The traditional estimation method is to use the empirical distribution functions to estimate it. Considering the populations under comparison are generally of the same nature, we can link the populations through density ratio model under certain condition. Based on this model, we propose a new estimator and establish its statistical inference theory. Simulation results show that the proposed estimator substantially improves estimation efficiency and power of the tests and coverage probabilities satisfactorily match the confidence levels of the tests, which show the superiority of the proposed estimator. Finally we apply our method to a real example of the Chinese household incomes.     

Regression modelling of interval censored data based on the adaptive ridge procedure

A new method for the analysis of time to ankylosis complication on a dataset of replanted teeth is proposed. In this context of left-censored, interval-censored and right-censored data, a Cox model with piecewise constant baseline hazard is introduced. Estimation is carried out with the expectation maximisation (EM) algorithm by treating the true event times as unobserved variables. This estimation procedure is shown to produce a block diagonal Hessian matrix of the baseline parameters. Taking advantage of this interesting feature in the EM algorithm, a L0 penalised likelihood method is implemented in order to automatically determine the number and locations of the cuts of the baseline hazard. This procedure allows to detect specific areas of time where patients are at greater risks for ankylosis. The method can be directly extended to the inclusion of exact observations and to a cure fraction. Theoretical results are obtained which allow to derive statistical inference of the model parameters from asymptotic likelihood theory. Through simulation studies, the penalisation technique is shown to provide a good fit of the baseline hazard and precise estimations of the resulting regression parameters.     

两种文学经典的夹缝中——中国现当代文学的文化语境

文学史的发展进程总是伴随着对某些文学经典的评价的变化,以及塑造出各个时代不同的文学经典的过程。对于中国现当代文学而言,一个非常突出的境况是,它有着两种不同类型的文学经典:一种源于时间差异的传统,另一种源于空间距离的异域,两种不同经典对于文学有着不同的诉求,而这种矛盾所形成的张力构成了中国文学在近代以来内部发展的动因。同时还应看到,两种文学经典在作为中国文学引导力量的另一面,则是两种经典本身也是被当下的文学创作和评价体制所规范。透过对于文学经典的分析,可以看到文学发展状况的一个侧面。     

A simple two-step procedure using the Fellegi–Sunter model for frequency-based record linkage

The widely used Fellegi–Sunter model for probabilistic record linkage does not leverage information contained in field values and consequently leads to identical classification of match status regardless of whether records agree on rare or common values. Since agreement on rare values is less likely to occur by chance than agreement on common values, records agreeing on rare values are more likely to be matches. Existing frequency-based methods typically rely on knowledge of error probabilities associated with field values and frequencies of agreed field values among matches, often derived using prior studies or training data. When such information is unavailable, applications of these methods are challenging. In this paper, we propose a simple two-step procedure for frequency-based matching using the Fellegi–Sunter framework to overcome these challenges. Matching weights are adjusted based on frequency distributions of the agreed field values among matches and non-matches, estimated by the Fellegi–Sunter model without relying on prior studies or training data. Through a real-world application and simulation, our method is found to produce comparable or better performance than the unadjusted method. Furthermore, frequency-based matching provides greater improvement in matching accuracy when using poorly discriminating fields with diminished benefit as the discriminating power of matching fields increases.     

中国权证市场认购权证的价格偏误研究

使用Black-Scholes模型对中国权证市场上发行的认购权证进行了研究。研究表明,总体上权证的市场价格高于其模型价格80.38%(历史波动率参数的B/S模型)和140.50%(E-GARCH波动率参数的B/S模型);另一方面,随着时间的推移,市场价格和模型价格之间的偏误有减小的趋势。此外,研究还发现,2006年底至今,部分认购权证的市场价格不仅低于其模型价格,而且低于其价格下限。这似乎违反了无套利原则,但中国市场交易机制的限制(股票卖空限制、股票T 1交易机制)使得这一现象得以较长时间存在。当权证的市场价格低于其价格下限时,在特定的情况下,套利交易可以进行。