Construction of Simultaneous Confidence Intervals for Ratios of Means of Lognormal Distributions

For constructing simultaneous confidence intervals for ratios of means for lognormal distributions, two approaches using a two-step method of variance estimates recovery are proposed. The first approach proposes fiducial generalized confidence intervals (FGCIs) in the first step followed by the method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER) in the second step (FGCIs–MOVER). The second approach uses MOVER in the first and second steps (MOVER–MOVER). Performance of proposed approaches is compared with simultaneous fiducial generalized confidence intervals (SFGCIs). Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the performance of these approaches in terms of coverage probability, average interval width, and time consumption.     

集装箱运输货损责任法律问题研究

从对集装箱性质的分析入手 ,通过对与集装箱运输货物责任相关问题的研究及各国实践做法的介绍 ,试图使集装箱运输货损责任的认定清晰化、简单化。同时对现有法律中存在的问题加以说明 ,以使法律能够尽快被完善 ,尽快适应集装箱运输方式快速发展的步伐     

论大学生运动员控制体重与饮食——以跆拳道为例

从分析大学生运动员赛前减控体重的方法入手,阐述了大学生运动员既能以"优势体重"参赛,又不危害身体健康和竞技水平的观点,通过查阅部分相关文献,提出了一套办法和推荐食谱以供参考。     

关于“概率论与数理统计”教学的几点新体会

提出改变传统的以教师为中心的教学结构,建立一种既能发挥教师的指导作用,又能充分体现学生主体作用的新型教学结构;采用中英文结合的教学模式,在以母语教学为主体的教学实践中贯穿双语教学,使学生能用英语进行数学方面的交流,并充分利用网络优势,扩大学生的知识面.     

李鸿章与琉球宗主权的丧失

1879年日本吞并琉球,对于日本在琉球的行为,李鸿章从国家利益的角度出发,主张琉球自主,这一主张最终导致了清朝对琉球宗主权的丧失,但也反映出李鸿章在同资本主义打交道的过程中,他的近代国家利益思想有不断增强的趋势,他将国际公法同中国传统的“存祀主义”糅合在一起,试图以西方的理论来解决中国传统的宗藩问题,具有开放性;其同意琉球自主,又体现了他主权观念的萌发,表现出新旧思想的杂糅。     

诚信缺失原因的法律分析

诚信缺失是当前我国市场经济中出现的一个严重的社会问题,大多学者一般都是从经济学、社会学的角度探讨诚信缺失的原因。本文拟从法律的角度,即立法不完善、法律意识淡漠和执法不严等三个方面予以剖析,望能在整治信用制度方面有所突破。     

Estimators for the Horvitz-Thompson Statistic Based on Some Posterior Distributions

The knowledge of first-order inclusion probabilities characterizing a sampling scheme is essential in design-based estimation of finite population totals. Sometimes the scheme is so complex that these probabilities cannot be computed exactly. Instead, both inclusion probabilities and corresponding sampling weights are simulated. One empirical Horvitz-Thompson estimator for a population total using simulation-based range-preserving estimates of sampling weights is obtained by applying the restricted maximum likelihood principle directly to each inclusion probability. The assumption of a prior distribution and the assessment of resulting posterior for a weight lead to two other estimators. One of them is the posterior mean estimator of the Horvitz-Thompson statistic. In a simulation involving Polish agricultural census data and a sequential fixed-cost sampling scheme, this estimator has attractive properties also from a frequentist point of view.     

Effects of Outcome and Probabilistic Ambiguity on Managerial Choices

Information ambiguity is prevalent in organizations and likely influences management decisions. This study examines, given imprecise probabilities and outcomes, how managers make choices when they are provided with single-figure benchmarks. Seventy-nine MBA students completed two experiments. We found that, in a decision framed as a decision under certainty involving an ambiguous outcome, the majority of the subjects were ambiguity prone in the loss condition and switched to ambiguity aversion in the gain condition. However, in the presence of probabilistic ambiguity in a decision under risk, this expected switching pattern was shown only when the difference in riskiness between the two choice options (in the loss condition) was perceived to be relatively small. In a companion study, we used a written protocol approach to identify factors that affect decision makers' investment choices when faced with ambiguous outcomes. Protocols frequently mentioned that the ambiguous outcome option was risky, even in the case which was framed as a decision under certainty in the problem statement. In a decision under risk with ambiguous outcomes, the combination of probabilistic risk and outcome ambiguity was seen as even more risky.     

Consequentialist foundations for expected utility

Behaviour norms are considered for decision trees which allow both objective probabilities and uncertain states of the world with unknown probabilities. Terminal nodes have consequences in a given domain. Behaviour is required to be consistent in subtrees. Consequentialist behaviour, by definition, reveals a consequence choice function independent of the structure of the decision tree. It implies that behaviour reveals a revealed preference ordering satisfying both the independence axiom and a novel form of sure-thing principle. Continuous consequentialist behaviour must be expected utility maximizing. Other plausible assumptions then imply additive utilities, subjective probabilities, and Bayes' rule.     

An Experimental Test of Loss Aversion

This paper experimentally investigates a preference condition for loss aversion in the framework of cumulative prospect theory (CPT). We propose the concepts of absolute and relative loss premiums in order to measure the extent of loss aversion and to derive notions of increasing, constant, and decreasing loss aversion. While in only one of the 28 choice situations analyzed loss neutrality and loss seeking can be rejected, about 51% of all choices are loss averse and, due to the large extent of loss aversion revealed by these choices, the average loss premium is positive for most choice situations. Female subjects exhibit both a more frequent occurrence and a larger extent of loss aversion.