略评弗兰克尔、森斯伯里的"定义"——悖论"狭义"被曲解为"广义"

弗兰克尔试图提出一个"悖论"的"狭窄定义",它既无多大价值,又内含一些冗余的"描述",更没有充分强调语义、语境,应该被取代、抛弃!遗憾的是,一般论者包括《美国哲学百科全书》、《中国大百科全书》、《辞海》等辞书竟然也把悖论"狭义"曲解、扩大为"广义",使问题更加复杂费解.当"失钻"悖论被澄清和消解,并且把森斯伯里的"悖论"定义作为比较之后,关于弗兰克尔等"狭窄定义"的价值和它被论者曲解和扩大等问题便水落石出!     

“古哲”胜“今哲”!——“自涉悖论”漫谈

三个古国早已发现"自涉加否定"(P)偶发的"矛盾性";随后其一又把P"强化"为"本语句假"(Q),响应"亦此亦彼"悖论(R),携手挑战"不矛盾律".这两个"悖论之冠"Q、R,迄今仍然"扑朔迷离",被誉为"千古之谜".在20世纪初,由于"罗素悖论"的猛烈冲击,惊醒了沉睡数世纪的Q、R,即时引发西方众多"今哲"奋力解悖."今哲"经历百年挫败,在迷惘和绝望之余,竟然认Q为"无意义"而拒斥Q为"矛盾",比"古哲"倒退了一大步!     

Expert rule versus majority rule under partial information

We study the uncertain dichotomous choice model. Under some assumptions on the distribution of expertise of the various panel members, the probability of the expert rule to be the optimal one is compared to that of the majority rule to be optimal. It turns out that for the former probability exceeds the latter by far, especially as the panel size becomes large.     

Full likelihood inference in the Cox model with LTRC data when covariates are discrete

For the regression parameter β in the Cox model, there have been several estimates based on different types of approximated likelihood. For right-censored data, Ren and Zhou [Full likelihood inferences in the Cox model: an empirical approach. Ann Inst Statist Math. 2011;63:1005–1018] derive the full likelihood function for (β, F₀), where F₀ is the baseline distribution function in the Cox model. In this article, we extend their results to left-truncated and right-censored data with discrete covariates. Using the empirical likelihood parameterization, we obtain the full-profile likelihood function for β when covariates are discrete. Simulation results indicate that the maximum likelihood estimator outperforms Cox's partial likelihood estimator in finite samples.     

The heterogeneous impact of insurance on health care demand among young adults: a panel data analysis*

Success of the recently implemented Affordable Care Act hinges on previously uninsured young adults enrolling in coverage. How will increased coverage, in turn, affect health care utilization? This paper applies variable coefficient panel models to estimate the impact of insurance on health care utilization among young adults. The econometric setup, which accommodates nonlinear usage measures, attempts to address the potential endogeneity of insurance status. The main finding is that, for approximately one-fifth of young adults, insurance does not substantially alter health care consumption. On the other hand, another one-fifth of young adults have large moral hazard effects. Among that group, insurance increases the probability of having a routine checkup by 71–120%, relative to mean probabilities, and insurance increases the number of curative-based doctor office visits by 67–181%, relative to the mean number of visits.     

Bayesian inference for a partially observed birth–death process using data on proportions

Stochastic kinetic models are often used to describe complex biological processes. Typically these models are analytically intractable and have unknown parameters which need to be estimated from observed data. Ideally we would have measurements on all interacting chemical species in the process, observed continuously in time. However, in practice, measurements are taken only at a relatively few time‐points. In some situations, only very limited observation of the process is available, for example settings in which experimenters can only observe noisy observations on the proportion of cells that are alive. This makes the inference task even more problematic. We consider a range of data‐poor scenarios and investigate the performance of various computationally intensive Bayesian algorithms in determining the posterior distribution using data on proportions from a simple birth‐death process.     

Analytical expression for the integrated squared density partial derivative of a multivariate normal mixture distribution

This paper describes the derivation of the analytical expression for the integrated squared density partial derivative (ISDPD) in a multivariate normal mixture model. The analytical expression of the ISDPD is derived for arbitrary dimensions with partial derivative orders up to four. Although the value of the ISDPD can be obtained by using the common numerical integration via mathematical software (such as Maple, Mathematica, Matlab, etc), it suffers from the limitation of computation time when the dimension or the number of mixture components of the considered multivariate normal mixture model are large. Moreover, numerical comparison indicates the benefits of speed offered by our proposed analytical expression are far superior to the numerical integration performed by Maple. With this analytical expression, the ISDPD can apace be calculated with no assistance of numerical integration.     

我国R&D强度的影响因素——基于局部调整模型的实证检验

采用1991～2007年时间序列数据实证研究了影响我国R&D强度的因素。首先从理论上分析了影响R&D强度的5个因素:企业因素、政策因素、公共R&D部门、投资因素、经济因素;根据数据的可获得性设计了企业R&D经费投入强度、企业R&D人员投入强度、行业结构、政府直接R&D补贴、知识产权保护、公共研发部门R&D支出的力度、固定资产投资、人力资本投资、人均GDP、GDP增长率、外贸依存度、外商直接投资12个变量。以局部调整模型为基础设计了实证模型,通过分析实证结果,发现企业R&D经费投入强度、行业结构、知识产权保护和固定资产投资等因素对R&D强度具有显著的正向影响。     

应当正确认识和把握否定之否定规律的实质及其基本特征——同沈晓珊同志商榷

要正确认识和把握否定之否定规律的实质和特征,必须正确回答三个问题,即:如何理解“自身发展”、“自我完善”的运动?如何看待“三个阶段、两次否定”的发展模式?否定之否定规律在辩证法中处于何种地位?我们认为,任何事物都是“自己运动”、“自身发展”和“自我完善”的;前进性和曲折性的统一是否定之否定规律的实质内容和基本特征;否定之否定规律不仅是辩证法的一大基本规律,而且是辩证法中处于最高层次的总体性的规律