新型农村合作医疗研究综述

我国学界对新型农村合作医疗(以下简称新农合)的研究集中在其应遵循的原则、筹资标准、保障范围和补偿水平、基金管理和监督、医药费用控制等方面.由于我国新农合尚处于试点阶段,许多研究有待进一步探索和加强,具体体现在三个方面:经济不发达地区合作医疗组织和运转费用的解决办法、合作医疗的成本分析和控制、农村合作医疗向全国统一的医疗保障的过渡.     

基于顾客资产价值提升的营销策略

基于企业与顾客互动关系内化而成的顾客资产正日益成为企业培育核心竞争力、构建竞争优势的关键资源。从研究顾客资产的内涵和构成着手。分析了影响顾客资产价值的系列驱动因素，从营销策略角度，提出了提升顾客资产价值的可操作性的建议。     

Stochastic Production Frontier and Technical Inefficiency: A Sensitivity Analysis

The present paper focuses attention on the sensitivity of technical inefficiency to most commonly used one-sided distributions of the inefficiency error term, namely the truncated normal, the half-normal, and the exponential distributions. A generalized version of the half-normal, which does not embody the zero-mean restriction, is also explored. For each distribution, the likelihood function and the counterpart of the estimator of technical efficiency are explicitly stated (Jondrow, J., Lovell, C. A. K., Materov, I. S., Schmidt, P. ([1982]), On estimation of technical inefficiency in the stochastic frontier production function model, J. Econometrics19:233-238). Based on our panel data set, related to Tunisian manufacturing firms over the period 1983-1993, formal tests lead to a strong rejection of the zero-mean restriction embodied in the half normal distribution. Our main conclusion is that the degree of measured inefficiency is very sensitive to the postulated assumptions about the distribution of the one-sided error term. The estimated inefficiency indices are, however, unaffected by the choice of the functional form for the production function.     

试论辽宁农业结构与布局调整

辽宁农业的发展应以市场为导向,从以数量为中心转向以质量和效益为中心,通过调整农业的品种结构、产业结构和区域布局,提高农产品的质量,加快农业产业化进程,进而发挥辽宁农业的比较优势,提高市场竞争力,解决好增产与增收的问题。     

统计信息市场的构建研究

统计信息对于加强宏观管理,搞活微观经济,促进改革的健康发展,加快现代化建设步伐,起着不可忽视的作用。高质量的统计信息来源于规范、有序的统计信息市场,因此,如何培育和发展规范的统计信息市场就显得尤为必要。拟就构建统计信息市场的必要性、途径及构建统计信息市场应注意的问题等方面展开论述,旨在说明规范的统计信息市场对国民经济发展的重要意义。     

Bayesian palaeoclimate reconstruction

Summary.  We consider the problem of reconstructing prehistoric climates by using fossil data that have been extracted from lake sediment cores. Such reconstructions promise to provide one of the few ways to validate modern models of climate change. A hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach is presented and its use, inversely, is demonstrated in a relatively small but statistically challenging exercise: the reconstruction of prehistoric climate at Glendalough in Ireland from fossil pollen. This computationally intensive method extends current approaches by explicitly modelling uncertainty and reconstructing entire climate histories. The statistical issues that are raised relate to the use of compositional data (pollen) with covariates (climate) which are available at many modern sites but are missing for the fossil data. The compositional data arise as mixtures and the missing covariates have a temporal structure. Novel aspects of the analysis include a spatial process model for compositional data, local modelling of lattice data, the use, as a prior, of a random walk with long-tailed increments, a two-stage implementation of the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach and a fast approximate procedure for cross-validation in inverse problems. We present some details, contrasting its reconstructions with those which have been generated by a method in use in the palaeoclimatology literature. We suggest that the method provides a basis for resolving important challenging issues in palaeoclimate research. We draw attention to several challenging statistical issues that need to be overcome.     

论劳动力胀供给膨对宏观经济运行的不良影响

劳动力供给膨胀问题是一个严重的社会问题,劳动力供给膨胀对宏观经济的运行产生许多不良影响,集中体现在市场经济效率、社会财富分配、社会稳定三个方面。研究劳动力供给膨胀对一个国家构建和谐社会具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。     

我国利用外商直接投资的区域分布研究

从我国利用外商直接投资的地区分布存在"东热西冷"的现象入手,分析了造成这种地区分布失衡的原因,并在此基础上对利用外商直接投资促进区域协调发展提出了相应的对策.     

实务中不同所得税方法对企业净利润计算的影响

净利润正确计算直接影响净利润分配的结果 ,因此不仅关系到所有者的合法权益是否得到保护 ,而且关系到企业能否长期、稳定地发展     

Power of the Neyman Smooth Test for Evaluating Multivariate Forecast Densities

We compare and investigate Neyman's smooth test, its components, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) goodness-of-fit test for testing the uniformity of multivariate forecast densities. Simulations indicate that the KS test lacks power when the forecast distributions are misspecified, especially for correlated sequences of random variables. Neyman's smooth test and its components work well in samples of size typically available, although there sometimes are size distortions. The components provide directed diagnosis regarding the kind of departure from the null. For illustration, the tests are applied to forecast densities obtained from a bivariate threshold model fitted to high-frequency financial data.