读朱新天著《印度教万神殿艺术——印度王后井探秘》

朱新天博士的新著《印度教万神殿艺术——印度王后井探秘》,是她近20年来苦心研究印度艺术的结晶。该书已分别以中、英、法三种文字同时出版,在国际印度艺术研究领域产生了重要影响。     

简论语料库与教师角色之转变

现代电子语料库已有了近50年的发展,但语料库应用于课堂教学才刚刚起步。通过近年语料库辅助课堂教学诸多实践研究,教师们不仅可以获得教学中的例句,还可引导学生们学习更地道、更准确的表达方式。     

A longitudinal study of depressiveness in children in public care

Rajhvajn Bulat L. A longitudinal study of depressiveness in children in public care Int J Soc Welfare 2010: 19: 412–423 © 2009 The Author, Journal compilation © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the International Journal of Social Welfare. The aim of this article is to analyse the challenges involved when making longitudinal observations of depressiveness in children raised in public care. The first measurement comprised 375 children from children's homes and foster families; however, most of the results are based on an analysis of the 139 children who participated in both parts of the research. We used the Child Depression Inventory and the anxiety/depression subscales of Youth Self Report and Child Behaviour Checklist as measures of depressiveness. The comparison of results from the first and second measurements showed that depressiveness in children in public care decreased over time. Children who grew up in children homes were, in the first measurement, more depressed than those living in foster families, but after five years that difference had disappeared. Furthermore, decrease in depressiveness is predominantly associated with less frequent delinquent, aggressive or hyperactive behaviour, less withdrawal and better control over uncomfortable emotions.     

金融危机下中国创业投资“囚徒困境”演化研究

创业投资家和创业企业家的＂囚徒困境＂是制约中国创业投资进一步发展的主要障碍之一。对短期利益的追求和缺乏信任是造成中国创业投资＂囚徒困境＂的两个重要原因。在金融危机背景下,＂囚徒困境＂的演化将朝着有利于创业投资家的方向发展。金融危机虽然能改变博弈的结果,却未能改变＂囚徒困境＂的成因。     

基于主体功能区划自然保护区生态补偿机制之构建与完善

根据国家主体功能区划,自然保护区被界定为禁止开发区域,必然要对其科学有效地实施生态补偿;自然保护区生态补偿机制应当结合当前主体功能区划的政策导向,进行重新定位与构建。依据公共物品与外部性等理论,为缓解现实矛盾,需积极探索构建多元化融资渠道的保护区生态补偿机制,主要涉及政府与市场两种基本途径或机制范畴,合理安排相应的政策引导与制度创新。制度构建的关键在于加快自然保护区生态补偿的立法调整,无论是政府财政转移支付还是市场经济手段的生态补偿政策,都需要立法确定其方针原则、实施模式及机制。     

“岂不怀匡济,天运当何如”──论天然禅师的安攘匡济情怀与通脱的应世方式

清初岭南佛门领袖天然禅师,年轻时抱有强烈的报国安民的情怀。虽然在明亡之前即已剃度,但安攘济世之心并未泯灭。甲申、乙酉之后,身为僧人的他,并未真正弃绝世事。他的一些行为仍与变乱的时局密切相关。其后,他在诗歌中不断地抒写着故国丘墟之感。其沧海桑田之作俨然前明遗民。尽管如此,他并没有拒绝与新朝官员的交接。甚至其诗歌中还有一些肯定新朝官员的作品。可以看出天然禅师在应世方式上是相当通脱的。     

New imperfect rankings models for ranked set sampling

Ranked set sampling is a sampling approach that leads to improved statistical inference in situations where the units to be sampled can be ranked relative to each other prior to formal measurement. This ranking may be done either by subjective judgment or according to an auxiliary variable, and it need not be completely accurate. In fact, results in the literature have shown that no matter how poor the quality of the ranking, procedures based on ranked set sampling tend to be at least as efficient as procedures based on simple random sampling. However, efforts to quantify the gains in efficiency for ranked set sampling procedures have been hampered by a shortage of available models for imperfect rankings. In this paper, we introduce a new class of models for imperfect rankings, and we provide a rigorous proof that essentially any reasonable model for imperfect rankings is a limit of models in this class. We then describe a specific, easily applied method for selecting an appropriate imperfect rankings model from the class.     

Wavelet goodness-of-fit test for dependent data

We introduce a new goodness-of-fit test which can be applied to hypothesis testing about the marginal distribution of dependent data. We derive a new test for the equivalent hypothesis in the space of wavelet coefficients. Such properties of the wavelet transform as orthogonality, localisation and sparsity make the hypothesis testing in wavelet domain easier than in the domain of distribution functions. We propose to test the null hypothesis separately at each wavelet decomposition level to overcome the problem of bi-dimensionality of wavelet indices and to be able to find the frequency where the empirical distribution function differs from the null in case the null hypothesis is rejected. We suggest a test statistic and state its asymptotic distribution under the null and under some of the alternative hypotheses.     

INSIGHTS ON SERVICE SYSTEM DESIGN FROM A NORMAL APPROXIMATION TO ERLANG'S DELAY FORMULA

We show how a simple normal approximation to Erlang's delay formula can be used to analyze capacity and staffing problems in service systems that can be modeled as M/M/s queues. The numbers of servers, s, needed in an M/M/s queueing system to assure a probability of delay of, at most, p can be well approximated by s ≅ p + z_***I-p+, where z_1-p, is the (1 - p)th percentile of the standard normal distribution and ρ, the presented load on the system, is the ratio of Λ, the customer arrival rate, to μ, the service rate. We examine the accuracy of this approximation over a set of parameters typical of service operations ranging from police patrol, through telemarketing to automatic teller machines, and we demonstrate that it tends to slightly underestimate the number of servers actually needed to hit the delay probability target—adding one server to the number suggested by the above formula typically gives the exact result. More importantly, the structure of the approximation promotes operational insight by explicitly linking the number of servers with server utilization and the customer service level. Using a scenario based on an actual teleservicing operation, we show how operations managers and designers can quickly obtain insights about the trade-offs between system size, system utilization and customer service. We argue that this little used approach deserves a prominent role in the operations analyst's and operations manager's toolbags.