Establish a Glorious Century of Maintaining Life＇ s Dignity

现今的世界上,有许多人由于内战、贫困与饥饿、环境破坏等威胁,迫使他们的生命及尊严处于危险状态,也有大批人仍然饱受着人权侵害、种族歧视的痛苦。为和平、人权、人道的奋斗,绝不是低层爬到高山的顶峰就可以达到终点那样。重要的是要创建一股一代接一代、谁也阻挡不了的滔滔洪流,并日积月累地把它发展和扩大。这就是我们为了建设一个和平未来的不断挑战。     

落下闳的族属之源暨浑天说、浑天仪所起源的族属

落下闳为巴人之源出赤狄支系皋落氏者,汉代浑天仪由落下闳始造,浑天仪所本理论为浑天说,而由落下闳的族属及其郡望学统、战国测星和西汉改历的史实、浑天思想的神话来源等观之,浑天说、浑天仪或非先秦华夏之族的旧学古器,而极可能起源于四夷中的狄、巴之族。     

Bayesian Treatment of Model Uncertainty for Partially Applicable Models

This article discusses how analyst's or expert's beliefs on the credibility and quality of models can be assessed and incorporated into the uncertainty assessment of an unknown of interest. The proposed methodology is a specialization of the Bayesian framework for the assessment of model uncertainty presented in an earlier paper. This formalism treats models as sources of information in assessing the uncertainty of an unknown, and it allows the use of predictions from multiple models as well as experimental validation data about the models’ performances. In this article, the methodology is extended to incorporate additional types of information about the model, namely, subjective information in terms of credibility of the model and its applicability when it is used outside its intended domain of application. An example in the context of fire risk modeling is also provided.     

人的思想道德与经济发展的关联

人的思想道德是人口素质的重要内容，人的思想道德在经济增长和经济发展中具有重要作用。但目前学术界还缺乏对人的思想道德素质与经济增长、经济发展和脱贫致富相关性的理论分析与实证检验。新时期反贫困实践应重视思想反贫困和思想扶贫。     

Need,well‐being and outcomes: the development of policy‐thinking for children's services 1989–2004

This paper describes how government policy thinking about the well‐being of children and young people developed between the Children Act 1989 and the Children Act 2004. These two Acts are milestone statements about how services to children in England and Wales should be delivered. It is an account informed by the author's own experience as a government adviser on children's social care over much of this period and supporting documentation. It traces the strands of government policy thinking about how to deliver services for children from children in need to the articulation of the five Every Child Matters outcomes. It argues that attempts to achieve coordinated service planning for children and young people played a significant role in the formulation of shared objectives and the articulation of child outcomes. However, it argues that looking at real outcomes exposes how children in the UK do relatively badly compared with other rich nations. It questions whether we can realistically expect our services to deliver significantly improved outcomes given the impact of enduring inequality in our society. This paper is dedicated to the memory of David Lambert CBE, former Assistant Chief Inspector of the Social Services Inspectorate in London, who died suddenly on 7 October 2010. He lent me articles to assist me in writing this paper.     

我国企业品牌定位的五层次研究

近年来中国企业的品牌建设取得了可喜的成绩,出现了许多优秀品牌,这些品牌凭借独特、合适的定位取得了成功。但企业在品牌定位方面存在许多误区,如把品牌定位看作产品定位、品牌定位模糊,缺乏差异性和明确的核心价值、品牌盲目延伸导致定位混淆等问题。因此,产品品牌定位必须树立正确的定位理念,应用正确的品牌定位方法。正确的品牌定位方法可分为产品特征定位、物质利益定位、情感利益定位、个性定位以及价值观定位共五个层次。     

能源安全体系建构的理论与实践

在我国能源安全面临的一系列重大问题中，能源领域的政策规划薄弱，法律保障制度建设与管理体制改革滞后，能源供应与能源安全保障体系缺乏相关政策、法律和制度的保障。只有真正做到政策、法律和管理体制“三位一体”，才能确保国家能源安全。本文从能源安全体系建构的理论和实践出发，借鉴西方能源安全战略实践，从政策、法律和管理体制等角度，对我国能源安全体系的内在机制建构进行分析，旨在为我国与中东能源合作提供借鉴与参考。     

清末政治思想中的民论探析

民论是清末政治改革思潮中的重要内容。在清末这一变动剧烈的时代中,人们对于民的认识发生了诸多变化,对当时及其后的政治发展产生了重要影响。清末的民论包括对民之地位与民之权利的论述等内容。清末民初思想家普遍认识到了民的重要性,对民的地位、民的权利进行了不同于传统民论的新的阐释。但对于民的能力却大多抱以悲观的态度,因此在是否给予民以充分的自由权利、提高普通民的政治地位问题上显现出迟疑和保守。     

从“同出而异名”角度解读老子的“圣人与百姓”思想

在《老子》传统的解读中,并没有将圣人和百姓放在对等的立场上,而忽视百姓的存在。事实上在老子的思想里,圣人和百姓是没有优劣之分的,二者都是推动"道"正常运动的力量,缺一不可,只是圣人和百姓在道的运动过程中扮演着不同角色。正是因为二者的共存,道才显现出既幽远深邃又生机盎然的特征。圣人和百姓作为两种不同的生命存在方式,共同维持着"宇宙—生命"系统的通塞平衡。     

科学霸权主义与人的困境

在西方现代化进程中，科学极大地解放了人的智力和体力，为人的自由发展提供了条件。然而，当科学的权威急剧膨胀变异成科学霸权主义，科学成为奴役人的工具时，却造成了人的困境。我国正处于现代化建设的进程中，需要吸收和借鉴西方科学发展进程中的经验和教训，发展一种厚道的、有机的科学具有重要的现实意义。