A Simple Formula for Calculating the "Mass Density" of a Lognormally Distributed Characteristic: Applications to Risk Analysis

Statements such as "80% of the employees do 20% of the work" or "the richest 1% of society controls 10% of its assets" are commonly used to describe the distribution or concentration of a variable characteristic within a population. Analogous statements can be constructed to reflect the relationship between probability and concentration for unvarying quantities surrounded by uncertainty. Both kinds of statements represent specific usages of a general relationship, the "mass density function," that is not widely exploited in risk analysis and management. This paper derives a simple formula for the mass density function when the uncertainty and/or the variability in a quantity is lognormally distributed; the formula gives the risk analyst an exact, "back-of-the-envelope" method for determining the fraction of the total amount of a quantity contained within any portion of its distribution. For example, if exposures to a toxicant are lognormally distributed with σ_{in x}= 2, 50% of all the exposure is borne by the 2.3% of persons most heavily exposed. Implications of this formula for various issues in risk assessment are explored, including: (1) the marginal benefits of risk reduction; (2) distributional equity and risk perception; (3) accurate confidence intervals for the population mean when a limited set of data is available; (4) the possible biases introduced by the uncritical assumption that extreme "outliers" exist; and (5) the calculation of the value of new information.     

音乐情绪感知的脑电研究

利用情绪量表筛选出对应愉快、快乐、悲伤、恐惧四种情绪的音乐片段作为刺激,同步记录脑电,从脑区、情绪极性、强度等方面对脑电α波功率的变化进行了分析。结果表明:脑电α波功率的变化与情绪的极性和强度密切相关;快乐与恐惧、愉快与恐惧、恐惧与悲伤之间α波功率差异显著;顶枕区α波功率在负极性情绪中强度强的明显小于强度弱的;在强度强的情绪中,正极性情绪显著大于负极性情绪。     

一类其R-投射模是投射的环(Ⅱ)

本文研究了所有R-投射模都是投射模的环(RP-环),得出了它的几个等价条件,证明了:S=R_n为RP-环当且仅当R为RP-环;sum from i=1 to nR_1为RP-环当且仅当每个R_i为RP-环,讨论了RP-环的左投射维数.     

由感及情到悟创作一幅中国画的心理过程

通过对画家创作一幅画灵感来源的分析,揭示作画者在作画之前和作画过程中,怎么样由对外部自然的感知,发展到内在情感的融入,最终经过“悟”的思想熔铸创作一幅画的心理过程.     

略论图样简化

本文指出图样简化是提高绘图速度最基本和最有效的途径之一。并就视图的简化,剖面符号的简化,利用尺寸符号简化视图,尺寸注法的简化和装配图的简化等方面进行了探讨。在符合或基本符合机械制图国家标准精神的前提下,提出了一些切实可行的方案。     

Risk,Media, and Stigma at Rocky Flats

Public responses to nuclear technologies are often strongly negative. Events, such as accidents or evidence of unsafe conditions at nuclear facilities, receive extensive and dramatic coverage by the news media. These news stories affect public perceptions of nuclear risks and the geographic areas near nuclear facilities. One result of these perceptions, avoidance behavior, is a form of "technological stigma" that leads to losses in property values near nuclear facilities. The social amplification of risk is a conceptual framework that attempts to explain how stigma is created through media transmission of information about hazardous places and public perceptions and decisions. This paper examines stigma associated with the U.S. Department of Energy's Rocky Flats facility, a major production plant in the nation's nuclear weapons complex, located near Denver, Colorado. This study, based upon newspaper analyses and a survey of Denver area residents, finds that the social amplification theory provides a reasonable framework for understanding the events and public responses that took place in regard to Rocky Flats during a 6-year period, beginning with an FBI raid of the facility in 1989.     

Methodological Approaches to Assessing Risk Perceptions Associated with Food-Related Hazards

The psychometric approach developed by Slovic and his co-workers has been effectively used to assess risk perceptions associated with different food-related hazards. However, further examination (using questionnaire data and partial correlation techniques) has indicated that technological hazards are highly differentiated from lifestyle hazards, in terms of both hazard control and knowledge about the hazard. Optimistic bias was also seen to vary between hazards. Further research has focused on a particular hazard, genetic engineering. Risk perceptions associated with genetic engineering are underpinned by ethical concern and questions relating to perceived need for the technology, as well as perceptions of risk or harm. However, increasing the specificity of hazard stimuli was found to alter the factor structure of underlying risk perceptions. The utility of preference mapping procedures in determining individual differences in trust in risk regulators is also discussed.     

Cognitive and Emotional Representations of Terror Attacks: A Cross-Cultural Exploration

A questionnaire measuring cognitive and affective representations of terror risk was developed and tested in Turkey and Israel. Participants in the study were university students from the two countries (n= 351). Four equivalent factors explained terror risk cognitions in each sample: costs, vulnerability, trust, and control. A single negative emotionality factor explained the affective component of terror risk representations in both samples. All factors except control could be measured reliably. Results supported the validity of the questionnaire by showing expected associations between cognitions and emotions, as well as indicating gender differences and cultural variations. Current findings are discussed in relation to previous results, theoretical approaches, and practical implications.     

作为价值事实的社会和谐与作为价值感受的社会和谐

和谐是关系的规定,只有关系才有和谐不和谐的问题。和谐作为关系的规定既可以从事实的角度看,也可以从感受的角度看。构建和谐的社会关系应该兼顾和谐的事实与和谐的感受,而且应该和相应的社会角色与相应的量度相结合。社会是否和谐“作为事实”主要是指“扮演相应角色的关系方面”实际上是否被肯定;社会是否和谐“作为感受”则主要是指“扮演相应角色的关系方面”想不想、希望不希望以当下的状态或身份被肯定。作为事实,社会和谐的最低要求是,确保所有扮演正常社会角色的人都能在衣食无忧的状态下生存下去,最高境界是,已有的社会关系对任何人的任何社会身份来说都是肯定性的。作为感受,社会和谐的最低要求是,“所有正常角色的扮演者”都能容忍所涉及的社会关系状况,最高境界是,任何一种社会角色想做的任何事都是所有角色都希望他做的。