The Role of Behavioral Responses in the Total Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Air Travel Targets

U.S. airports and airliners are prime terrorist targets. Not only do the facilities and equipment represent high‐value assets, but the fear and dread that is spread by such attacks can have tremendous effects on the U.S. economy. This article presents the methodology, data, and estimates of the macroeconomic impacts stemming from behavioral responses to a simulated terrorist attack on a U.S. airport and on a domestic airliner. The analysis is based on risk‐perception surveys of these two scenarios. The responses relate to reduced demand for airline travel, shifts to other modes, spending on nontravel items, and savings of potential travel expenditures by U.S. resident passengers considering flying domestic routes. We translate these responses to individual spending categories and feed these direct impact results into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy to ascertain the indirect and total impacts on both the airline industry and the economy as a whole. Overall, the estimated impacts on GDP of both types of attacks exceed $10B. We find that the behavioral economic impacts are almost an order of magnitude higher than the ordinary business interruption impacts for the airliner attack and nearly two orders of magnitude higher for the airport attack. The results are robust to sensitivity tests on the travel behavior of U.S. residents in response to terrorism.     

Near‐Misses and Future Disaster Preparedness

Disasters garner attention when they occur, and organizations commonly extract valuable lessons from visible failures, adopting new behaviors in response. For example, the United States saw numerous security policy changes following the September 11 terrorist attacks and emergency management and shelter policy changes following Hurricane Katrina. But what about those events that occur that fall short of disaster? Research that examines prior hazard experience shows that this experience can be a mixed blessing. Prior experience can stimulate protective measures, but sometimes prior experience can deceive people into feeling an unwarranted sense of safety. This research focuses on how people interpret near‐miss experiences. We demonstrate that when near‐misses are interpreted as disasters that did not occur and thus provide the perception that the system is resilient to the hazard, people illegitimately underestimate the danger of subsequent hazardous situations and make riskier decisions. On the other hand, if near‐misses can be recognized and interpreted as disasters that almost happened and thus provide the perception that the system is vulnerable to the hazard, this will counter the basic “near‐miss” effect and encourage mitigation. In this article, we use these distinctions between resilient and vulnerable near‐misses to examine how people come to define an event as either a resilient or vulnerable near‐miss, as well as how this interpretation influences their perceptions of risk and their future preparedness behavior. Our contribution is in highlighting the critical role that people's interpretation of the prior experience has on their subsequent behavior and in measuring what shapes this interpretation.     

论从平面到立体的转换属于著作权法上的复制

复制权是著作权中最重要的一项经济权利,对复制权进行准确的界定有着十分重要的意义。我国对于从平面到立体的转换行为,法律没有做出明确规定。由于立法上的缺位,使得司法实践中对该种转换态度不一。文章拟在分析该类行为的实质及国际通行的做法后,提出该种转换应当纳入我国法律体系之中,以适应经济发展,扩大国际交往。     

The Risk Perception Paradox—Implications for Governance and Communication of Natural Hazards

This article reviews the main insights from selected literature on risk perception, particularly in connection with natural hazards. It includes numerous case studies on perception and social behavior dealing with floods, droughts, earthquakes, volcano eruptions, wild fires, and landslides. The review reveals that personal experience of a natural hazard and trust—or lack of trust—in authorities and experts have the most substantial impact on risk perception. Cultural and individual factors such as media coverage, age, gender, education, income, social status, and others do not play such an important role but act as mediators or amplifiers of the main causal connections between experience, trust, perception, and preparedness to take protective actions. When analyzing the factors of experience and trust on risk perception and on the likeliness of individuals to take preparedness action, the review found that a risk perception paradox exists in that it is assumed that high risk perception will lead to personal preparedness and, in the next step, to risk mitigation behavior. However, this is not necessarily true. In fact, the opposite can occur if individuals with high risk perception still choose not to personally prepare themselves in the face of a natural hazard. Therefore, based on the results of the review, this article offers three explanations suggesting why this paradox might occur. These findings have implications for future risk governance and communication as well as for the willingness of individuals to invest in risk preparedness or risk mitigation actions.     

Nanotechnology Risk Communication Past and Prologue

Nanotechnologies operate at atomic, molecular, and macromolecular scales, at scales where matter behaves differently than at larger scales and quantum effects can dominate. Nanotechnologies have captured the imagination of science fiction writers as science, engineering, and industry have leapt to the challenge of harnessing them. Applications are proliferating. In contrast, despite recent progress the regulatory landscape is not yet coherent, and public awareness of nanotechnology remains low. This has led risk researchers and critics of current nanotechnology risk communication efforts to call for proactive strategies that do more than address facts, that include and go beyond the public participation stipulated by some government acts. A redoubling of nanotechnology risk communication efforts could enable consumer choice and informed public discourse about regulation and public investments in science and safety.     

就业维度的高职学生非专业素质培养探究

通过对就业维度语境下高职学生非专业素质重要影响的分析,从三个方面考察了当前就业维度的高职学生非专业素质培养现状,并对就业维度的高职学生非专业素质培养框架提出了初步构想。     

道德认知的默会维度——基于认知结构的分析

在道德认知的研究中,对认知结构、道德判断在认知过程中的作用方式存在不同见解,需要一种新的认识进路来诠释。采用默会知识论的一些观点来分析道德认知,可以发现,默会认识的结构与道德认知结构都从格式塔学派的观点发展而来,在发展方向上也都强调认识者主动的整合能力和结构的动态平衡。道德认知的结构与内容之间的关系,与默会知识论中知道怎样(knowhow)和知道那个事实(knowthat)之间的关系表述在方式上基本一致,并强调道德判断的产生须借助于道德主体的情感和价值取向在具体特定条件下完成。因此,道德认知具备人类认识的默会维度,道德认知的发展需要两个必不可少的条件:道德判断能力的发展,以及个体在道德认知结构中的身体在位。道德认知的默会维度支持一种实践性的教育方法,强调通过生活实践来促进道德认知结构的发展,从而最终促进道德的发展。     

网上银行顾客感知服务质量影响因素研究

通过文献研究和深度访谈，提炼出可能影响网上银行顾客感知服务质量的19个因素，通过探索性因子分析，将这19个因素归纳为经济性、易用性、履行性、安全性和响应性。通过相关分析和多元回归分析发现，有4类因素与网上银行顾客感知服务质量呈显著正相关，依次是经济性、易用性、履行性和安全性。通过对我国主要网上银行服务质量测评发现，当前我国网上银行服务质量不高，且各家网上银行服务质量存在明显差异。     

A Comparison of Ambient Casino Sound and Music: Effects on Dissociation and on Perceptions of Elapsed Time While Playing Slot Machines

This research examined the effects of a casino’s auditory character on estimates of elapsed time while gambling. More specifically, this study varied whether the sound heard while gambling was ambient casino sound alone or ambient casino sound accompanied by music. The tempo and volume of both the music and ambient sound were varied to manipulate temporal engagement and introspection. One hundred and sixty (males = 91) individuals played slot machines in groups of 5–8, after which they provided estimates of elapsed time. The findings showed that the typical ambient casino auditive environment, which characterizes the majority of gaming venues, promotes understated estimates of elapsed duration of play. In contrast, when music is introduced into the ambient casino environment, it appears to provide a cue of interval from which players can more accurately reconstruct elapsed duration of play. This is particularly the case when the tempo of the music is slow and the volume is high. Moreover, the confidence with which time estimates are held (as reflected by latency of response) is higher in an auditive environment with music than in an environment that is comprised of ambient casino sounds alone. Implications for casino management are discussed.     

How People Perceive and Will Cope with Risks from the Diffusion of Ubiquitous Information and Communication Technologies

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) are increasingly pervasive and continue to reshape our environment. This trend carries different risks. Therefore, the early sensitization of people to these risks, as well as improving their capacity for protective coping behavior, is essential. Based on the protection motivation theory (PMT), we examined with structural equation modeling the relationships between different components of threat and coping appraisal to explain protective and nonprotective responses. Calculations were performed with data from a representative survey on perception and use of ICT among German residents (N= 5,030). Our findings largely supported the proposed model: an increased perceived threat was positively related to the intentions to react protectively and nonprotectively. Perceived coping efficacy increased the protective and decreased the nonprotective responses. Negative affect enhanced the perceived threat and the nonprotective response, but inhibited protective intentions. The implications of these findings on how to sensitize people to the risks of these new technologies are outlined.