西方发达国家的就业促进经验及其对中国的启示

近年来 ,随着中国改革开放的深入开展 ,城镇失业率迅速上升。西方发达国家在就业领域 ,都曾经历了失业率上升的发展阶段。为降低失业率 ,各国采取了不尽相同但却切实有效的就业促进措施 ,积累了丰富的就业促进经验。中国也可以借鉴这些就业促进经验 ,以期逐步降低失业率     

吉林省城乡居民消费变化的特点及差异研究

随着城乡居民收入的提高 ,吉林省居民的消费水平有了显著变化 ,按可比价格计算的居民消费水平指数总体上呈上升趋势。进入 90年代以来 ,居民的消费构成也相应发生了很大的转变 ,但城乡之间仍然存在较大的差异。实践表明 ,在经济发展水平相对较高的条件下 ,居民消费的心理、水平、构成及其变化 ,对经济增长的影响力度势必呈现出越来越大的趋势     

韩国人口老龄化过程及其启示

韩国人口老龄化的过程与中国有很多相似之处,经历了20世纪50年代的高生育率和死亡率降低、60年代以后的生育率下降直到目前的超低生育率,韩国人口在世纪之交快速进入老龄化阶段。预计初婚年龄的升高、持续的低生育率和育龄妇女数量的减少将会使韩国人口进一步老化。快速的人口老龄化已经为韩国社会带来了一系列的经济和社会问题,应对老龄化带来的挑战成为国家面临的重大问题。韩国的老龄化过程、现状以及采取相应的对策,将对中国具有启示意义。     

农村老年人老化态度变动轨迹:基于积极老龄化框架的实证考察

基于积极老龄化理论框架和"中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查"面板数据,文章从积极和消极两个维度对农村老年人老化态度问题进行实证考察。研究发现,两种老化态度均以2008年为重要转折点,女性老化态度比男性更具多样性和多变性。健康、社会参与和保障都能引起老化态度的积极变动,但社会适应、子女经济支持和社区照料三个因素对消极老化态度有正向影响,而生产活动降低了积极老化态度水平。从贡献率看,健康因素对老化态度差异贡献最大,其次是保障因素、社会参与因素,健康因素更能解释积极老化态度的变化,社会参与因素对消极老化态度的贡献率更高,二者分别在女性和男性老年人群体中表现得更为明显。贡献率排在前四位的因素是精神健康、子女经济支持、医疗可及性和身体健康。用积极老龄化的观点帮助庞大的农村老年人口建立正确的老化态度将有益于养老问题的解决。     

Identifying the most successful dose (MSD) in dose-finding studies in cancer

For a dose finding study in cancer, the most successful dose (MSD), among a group of available doses, is that dose at which the overall success rate is the highest. This rate is the product of the rate of seeing non-toxicities together with the rate of tumor response. A successful dose finding trial in this context is one where we manage to identify the MSD in an efficient manner. In practice we may also need to consider algorithms for identifying the MSD which can incorporate certain restrictions, the most common restriction maintaining the estimated toxicity rate alone below some maximum rate. In this case the MSD may correspond to a different level than that for the unconstrained MSD and, in providing a final recommendation, it is important to underline that it is subject to the given constraint. We work with the approach described in O'Quigley et al. [Biometrics 2001; 57(4):1018-1029]. The focus of that work was dose finding in HIV where both information on toxicity and efficacy were almost immediately available. Recent cancer studies are beginning to fall under this same heading where, as before, toxicity can be quickly evaluated and, in addition, we can rely on biological markers or other measures of tumor response. Mindful of the particular context of cancer, our purpose here is to consider the methodology developed by O'Quigley et al. and its practical implementation. We also carry out a study on the doubly under-parameterized model, developed by O'Quigley et al. but not     

A two phases queueing system with Bernoulli vacation schedule under multiple vacation policy

This paper deals with a single server Poisson arrival queue with two phases of heterogeneous service along with a Bernoulli schedule vacation model, where after two successive phases service the server either goes for a vacation with probability p (0≤p≤1) or may continue to serve the next unit, if any, with probability q(=1−p). Further the concept of multiple vacation policy is also introduced here. We obtained the queue size distributions at a departure epoch and at a random epoch, Laplace Stieltjes Transform of the waiting time distribution and busy period distribution along with some mean performance measures. Finally we discuss some statistical inference related issues.     

Markov Chains and De-initializing Processes

We define a notion of de-initializing Markov chains. We prove that to analyse convergence of Markov chains to stationarity, it suffices to analyse convergence of a de-initializing chain. Applications are given to Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and to convergence diagnostics.     

On Non-parametric Estimation of the Survival Function with Competing Risks

The non-parametric maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) are derived for survival functions associated with individual risks or system components in a reliability framework. Lifetimes are observed for systems that contain one or more of those components. Analogous to a competing risks model, the system is assumed to fail upon the first instance of any component failure; i.e. the system is configured in series. For any given risk or component type, the asymptotic distribution is shown to depend explicitly on the unknown survival function of the other risks, as well as the censoring distribution. Survival functions with increasing failure rate are investigated as a special case. The order restricted MLE is shown to be consistent under mild assumptions of the underlying component lifetime distributions.     

Error rates in classification consisting of discrete and continuous variables in the presence of covariates

We consider classifying an object based on mixed continuous and discrete variables between two populations. Mixed discrete and continuous covariates with identical means in both populations are amongst the variables. Under the location model with homogeneous location specific conditional dispersion matrices for both populations, the Bayes rule is given. Classification is implemented by a plug-in version of the Bayes rule with full covariate adjustment. An asymptotic expansion of the overall expected error of the procedure is derived. Our findings generalize several classical results.     

Asymptotic Analysis of the Sieve Estimator for a Class of Parabolic SPDEs

In this paper we consider the problem of estimating a coefficient of a strongly elliptic partial differential operator in stochastic parabolic equations. The coefficient is a bounded function of time. We compute the maximum likelihood estimate of the function on an approximating space (sieve) using a finite number of the spatial Fourier coefficients of the solution and establish conditions that guarantee consistency and asymptotic normality of the resulting estimate as the number of the coefficients increases. The equation is assumed diagonalizable in the sense that all the operators have a common system of eigenfunctions.