汇改后中国外汇市场与资本市场联动效应——基于集合经验模态分解法

以投资者预期收益变动逻辑起点,构建在不同预期收益下外汇市场与资本市场的联动机制理论模型,进而将2005-2014年按金融市场改革历程划分为4个阶段,通过集合经验模态分解法对中国外汇市场与资本市场的数据进行分解,过滤掉代表资本价格随机波动的短周期分量,提取最具代表联动性的长周期趋势分量。采用VAR-GARCH-BEKK模型对4个阶段两个市场的均值溢出效应和波动溢出效应进行分析,结果显示:受中国经济增长的方式以及外汇管制制度影响,不同阶段两个市场间的溢出效应呈现出不同的特点,虽然总体来看联动强度有一定程度的加强,但是两个市场间"资金价格"传导机制的脆弱性并未获得实质性的改变。因此,只有推进汇率市场化,循序渐进的加快资本项目可兑换,完善人民币汇率形成机制,才能够不断提高货币政策调控的主动性和有效性性,维护国家利益。     

国家铁路货物整车运输比价关系探讨

铁路整车货运运价率结构对于货运整体收入及市场竞争力具有重要影响。通过对国家铁路货运总体运营价格水平与整车运价率、整车运价率基价1与基价2之间比价关系的分析发现,整车货运比价关系存在的主要问题体现在运价号设置的结构性、对运输成本的抵补、价率水平的均衡性以及与货物品类的对应关系等方面。因此,提出在"一口价"模式下充分考虑运输市场竞争因素、适当调整各运价号基价1与基价2增幅及比值关系、增设新运价号以及与运价浮动管理相结合充分利用3号运价等调整建议。     

技术创新融资风险评价模型与实证研究

针对型技术创新融资过程中融资风险难以量化及融资风险评价主体的模糊性问题,建立企业举债背景下的权益资本报酬率服从正态分布 N E,σ2()的融资风险量化与评价模型,将该模型应用于高新技术企业上市公司技术创新融资项目进行实证分析,结果显示,对融资风险量化的准确性高,且融资风险评价模型实用性强,为企业技术创新融资过程中的风险管理决策提供合理依据。     

Mixed-effects Models with Skewed Distributions for Time-varying Decay Rate in HIV Dynamics

After initiation of treatment, HIV viral load has multiphasic changes, which indicates that the viral decay rate is a time-varying process. Mixed-effects models with different time-varying decay rate functions have been proposed in literature. However, there are two unresolved critical issues: (i) it is not clear which model is more appropriate for practical use, and (ii) the model random errors are commonly assumed to follow a normal distribution, which may be unrealistic and can obscure important features of within- and among-subject variations. Because asymmetry of HIV viral load data is still noticeable even after transformation, it is important to use a more general distribution family that enables the unrealistic normal assumption to be relaxed. We developed skew-elliptical (SE) Bayesian mixed-effects models by considering the model random errors to have an SE distribution. We compared the performance among five SE models that have different time-varying decay rate functions. For each model, we also contrasted the performance under different model random error assumptions such as normal, Student-t, skew-normal, or skew-t distribution. Two AIDS clinical trial datasets were used to illustrate the proposed models and methods. The results indicate that the model with a time-varying viral decay rate that has two exponential components is preferred. Among the four distribution assumptions, the skew-t and skew-normal models provided better fitting to the data than normal or Student-t model, suggesting that it is important to assume a model with a skewed distribution in order to achieve reasonable results when the data exhibit skewness.     

Comparison of hazard rates for dependent random variables

In this paper, we define and study a new notion for the comparison of the hazard rates of two random variables taking into account their mutual dependence. Properties, applications and the comparison for a data set are given.     

Understanding Estimators of Treatment Effects in Regression Discontinuity Designs

In this paper, we propose two new estimators of treatment effects in regression discontinuity designs. These estimators can aid understanding of the existing estimators such as the local polynomial estimator and the partially linear estimator. The first estimator is the partially polynomial estimator which extends the partially linear estimator by further incorporating derivative differences of the conditional mean of the outcome on the two sides of the discontinuity point. This estimator is related to the local polynomial estimator by a relocalization effect. Unlike the partially linear estimator, this estimator can achieve the optimal rate of convergence even under broader regularity conditions. The second estimator is an instrumental variable estimator in the fuzzy design. This estimator will reduce to the local polynomial estimator if higher order endogeneities are neglected. We study the asymptotic properties of these two estimators and conduct simulation studies to confirm the theoretical analysis.     

中国农村民间借贷市场融资约束环境下利率定价模型分析——以广东农村实地调查数据为例

通过对广东农户民间借贷行为实地调查的问卷进行数据分析,了解农村民间借贷中的资金供求关系,发现存在的融资约束问题,进而对融资约束环境下民间借贷资金利率定价过程进行实证分析;着重考察农村民间借贷利率受公共信息和私人信息影响的程度,从借款人和贷款人的角度分别建立定价模型进行经验分析。结果显示,定价模型在F检验1%水平上显著,其他模型具有R2的统计显著性;反映借款用途的变量在10%水平上显著,其他变量均在5%水平上显著。这说明该市场利率能够反映公共信息的影响,借款人和贷款人的利率定价也反映了各自私人信息中相关风险和财务能力因素的影响,得到的经验结论主要是:第一,农村民间借贷市场是自主交易的金融市场;第二,其利率定价过程基本市场化。     

新型职业农民:成长轨迹、影响因素及培育策略——基于19个省市39位新型职业农民生命历程的分析

通过对全国19个省市39位优秀新型职业农民的生命历程进行分析,发现其成长轨迹呈现出折勾型、倒梯型、V字型、阶梯型以及N字型五种类型,并且不同来源、不同世代的新型职业农民成长轨迹具有一定的差异性。究其原因,新型职业农民终身发展的动力支撑显得不足;新型职业农民的个体主观能动性得到了充分的发挥;政府扶持与引领作用有待继续加强;新型职业农民培育时机并未得到恰当的把握;影响新型职业农民成长的相关利益主体分布比较广泛。针对以上情况,提出新型职业农民的培育策略:强化政府主导力量,增强新型职业农民职业吸引力;吸收年轻优秀群体,壮大新型职业农民的新生力量;重视人地实际需求,把握新型职业农民培育的时机。     

保险素养、收入差异与农民商业保险参与

乡村振兴战略的实施激发了农民在“医、养、住、行”等方面对美好生活的追求,与之对应的各类保险保障需求也随之涌现。对保险素养影响农民商业保险参与的机理进行了阐释,并使用陕西省565户农户的调查数据,实证检验了保险素养对农民商业保险参与选择的影响,以及农民个人收入差异对保险素养影响其商业保险参与的调节效应。研究表明,保险素养会显著促使农民商业保险参与概率增加3.1%。此外,个人经济收入差异对保险素养促进农民商业保险参与并未发挥出调节作用,即提升个人收入水平并不会增强保险素养对农民商业保险参与的促进作用。因此,有必要采取提高农民保险素养、有针对性地开发设计符合农民诉求的保险产品等措施促进农民商业保险消费,进而促进商业保险在农村地区的发展。     

上市公司债务重组财务效应研究

债务重组是很多企业在生产经营活动中遇到的重大问题,债务重组的结果如何,会对企业产生重大影响。在分析了中国深圳和上海证券交易所的上市公司的债务重组的相关数据之后,得出了债务重组能够显著改善企业业绩的相关结论,提出了要加强对债务重组信息披露等相关建议。