Bonus—Malus模型在银行贷款机制中的应用

将Bonus—MalLis模型应用到银行贷款业务，通过调整银行的Bonus-MalLis贷款利率来减少贷款欺诈行为。主要是建立借款人的银行个人信用体系，通过借款人上阶段的还款利率和表现决定其下阶段还款利率，这样就提供了一种与完全审计机制不同的奖惩机制。在一些简单假设下可证明Bonus—Malus利率将会消除所有欺诈行为，而非仅仅减少欺诈行为。     

成岩作用及阶段对碎屑岩储层孔隙演化的控制

碎屑岩储层孔隙演化受有机-无机成岩作用的影响，在埋藏成岩阶段，有机质成熟过程中脱羧作用产生的有机酸对碎屑岩中的方解石、长石等溶蚀所形成的次生扎隙，是深部储层中高孔渗段发育的重要原因，随埋深增加，成岩阶段由早-晚发展，有机质由未成熟-成熟演化，在此期间，储层孔隙经历了消亡与新生的发展过程。在同一盆地中，不同层位储层经历的最大埋深如果相近，所处成岩阶段也相近，其孔隙演化史亦趋于相似;反之，同一层位的储层所处的最大埋深不同，成岩阶段不同，其孔隙特征也就不同。     

我国公民权保障的城乡差异

一国公民权保障不仅要在其宪法、法律条文上得以体现,而且尤为重要的是要对其实现提供各种保障机制。立法上的规定,只是一种纸上的承诺,它并不意味着公民权的自动保护。权利的真实享有和行使有赖于权利主体之实际地位和实际能力。我国现阶段城乡差距已成为一个非常严重的问题,它不仅影响了经济的可持续发展,而且也使得权利主体由于经济落后、资源短缺而造成权利实际享有的不平等,导致在现实中我国公民权保障呈现出一种城乡“差序格局”状态。     

BATHTUB-TYPE CURVES IN RELIABILITY AND BEYOND

Finding optimal, or at least good, maintenance and repair policies is crucial in reliability engineering. Likewise, describing life phases of human mortality is important when determining social policy or insurance premiums. In these tasks, one searches for distributions to fit data and then makes inferences about the population(s). In the present paper, we focus on bathtub‐type distributions and provide a view of certain problems, methods and solutions, and a few challenges, that can be encountered in reliability engineering, survival analysis, demography and actuarial science.     

在实践中考察社会主义

实践是社会生活的本质,是人类生存和发展的根本条件。在实践中正确认识和理解、继承和发展科学社会主义,就是要强调社会主义实践的阶段性、过程性和层次性,强调要用发展着的马克思主义指导新的实践,与时俱进,正确处理社会主义本质与社会主义实践之间的辨证关系。     

从跨文化管理角度看跨国公司竞争优势

企业文化是企业竞争优势的来源之一,与企业经营业绩呈正相关。随着跨国公司的跨国经营,文化差异和冲突为企业的经营带来了严重的不利后果,这就需要研究和加强跨文化管理。通过跨文化管理解决文化冲突,寻找超越文化冲突的企业目标,使得企业文化的形成按所希望的方向发展。企业竞争优势是企业在与同行业的竞争中所表现出来的相对于对手的一种优势,依赖这种优势企业可以获得超过本行业平均收益率的回报。跨文化管理使企业在学习和接受其他文化理念的同时创造自身的竞争优势。     

On Rates of Convergence for Bayesian Density Estimation

Abstract.  We consider the problem of estimating a compactly supported density taking a Bayesian nonparametric approach. We define a Dirichlet mixture prior that, while selecting piecewise constant densities, has full support on the Hellinger metric space of all commonly dominated probability measures on a known bounded interval. We derive pointwise rates of convergence for the posterior expected density by studying the speed at which the posterior mass accumulates on shrinking Hellinger neighbourhoods of the sampling density. If the data are sampled from a strictly positive, α -Hölderian density, with α  ∈ ( 0,1] , then the optimal convergence rate n^{− α / (2 α +1)} is obtained up to a logarithmic factor. Smoothing histograms by polygons, a continuous piecewise linear estimator is obtained that for twice continuously differentiable, strictly positive densities satisfying boundary conditions attains a rate comparable up to a logarithmic factor to the convergence rate n ^−4/5 for integrated mean squared error of kernel type density estimators.     

On an adaptive version of the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm with independent proposal distribution

In this paper, we present a general formulation of an algorithm, the adaptive independent chain (AIC), that was introduced in a special context in Gåsemyr et al . [ Methodol. Comput. Appl. Probab. 3 (2001)]. The algorithm aims at producing samples from a specific target distribution Π, and is an adaptive, non-Markovian version of the Metropolis–Hastings independent chain. A certain parametric class of possible proposal distributions is fixed, and the parameters of the proposal distribution are updated periodically on the basis of the recent history of the chain, thereby obtaining proposals that get ever closer to Π. We show that under certain conditions, the algorithm produces an exact sample from Π in a finite number of iterations, and hence that it converges to Π. We also present another adaptive algorithm, the componentwise adaptive independent chain (CAIC), which may be an alternative in particular in high dimensions. The CAIC may be regarded as an adaptive approximation to the Gibbs sampler updating parametric approximations to the conditionals of Π.     

Optimal scaling of Metropolis algorithms: Heading toward general target distributions

The authors provide an overview of optimal scaling results for the Metropolis algorithm with Gaussian proposal distribution. They address in more depth the case of high‐dimensional target distributions formed of independent, but not identically distributed components. They attempt to give an intuitive explanation as to why the well‐known optimal acceptance rate of 0.234 is not always suitable. They show how to find the asymptotically optimal acceptance rate when needed, and they explain why it is sometimes necessary to turn to inhomogeneous proposal distributions. Their results are illustrated with a simple example.     

中国人口性别结构的区域差异及演变动态分析

人口性别构成是影响人类婚姻、人口再生产的基本因素，也影响国家经济、政治、文化、教育等方面的发展，也是编制经济、文化、教育、科技、卫生、人民生活、劳动、城乡建设等发展规划的重要依据。同时对于中国当前正在进行的和谐社会建设也具有重要意义。利用中国五次人口普查资料及2005年1％人口抽样资料分析了中国总人口性别比演变动态及地理分布特征。表明：（1）中国在历史上是一个性别比偏高的国家，新中国总人口性别比呈下降趋势；（2）1953到2005年，年龄性别比曲线越来越平稳，性别比最高峰值呈现有低龄组向中龄组及高龄组转移的趋势；（3）各省区之间及城乡之间的性别结构差异由大变小；（4）山区性别比高于平原。重工业城市高于其他城市。大城市高于小城市。