Rhetoric or reality? An economic analysis of the effects of religion in Sweden

On the basis of simple rational-choice theory, it is argued that Christian religious involvement influences the divorce, abortion, non-payment, and children-born-out-of-wedlock rates negatively. This influence stems from an expectation that a god punishes certain forms of action and from social reprimands of devotees. Regression analysis is then used to test the theory in the case of Sweden in the year 1990, and the importance of religion, in its negative effect on all of these rates, is strongly confirmed. A particularly interesting result: the marginal effect on three of these rates of increasing the fraction of people active in the Church of Sweden is clearly larger than the marginal effect of increasing the fraction of more conservative free-church members.     

Supporting foster and kinship carers to promote the mental health of children

The majority of children and young people removed from the care of their parents by the state of Victoria, Australia, reside in foster or kinship care. These children have experienced a broad range of adverse conditions and are up to 4 times more likely to experience problems with mental health than their mainstream peers. This paper draws on the perspectives of foster and kinship carers, describing the disconnection between their role as mental health advocates and their interest in early intervention in a field which is dominated by crisis and the historic marginalisation of foster and kinship carers. Thirty‐one foster and kinship carers across greater metropolitan Melbourne, Australia, contributed to this study through interviews and focus groups. Participants demonstrated a practical understanding of mental health and an ability to identify a range of conditions that have an adverse impact on the mental health of children and young people in their care. The paper concludes that there is a lack of systemic support and even a range of barriers that affect the capacity of foster and kinship carers to promote the mental health and well‐being of the children and young people in their care.     

Multiphase experiments in practice: A look back

Multiphase experiments are introduced and an overview of their design and analysis as it is currently practised is given via an account of their development since 1955 and a literature survey. Methods that are available for designing and analysing them are outlined, with an emphasis on making explicit the role of the model in their design. The availability of software and its use is described in detail. Overall, while multiphase designs have been applied in areas such as plant breeding, plant pathology, greenhouse experimentation, product storage, gene expression studies, and sensory evaluation, their deployment has been limited.     

A simulation study of methods for selecting subgroup‐specific doses in phase 1 trials

Patient heterogeneity may complicate dose‐finding in phase 1 clinical trials if the dose‐toxicity curves differ between subgroups. Conducting separate trials within subgroups may lead to infeasibly small sample sizes in subgroups having low prevalence. Alternatively,it is not obvious how to conduct a single trial while accounting for heterogeneity. To address this problem,we consider a generalization of the continual reassessment method on the basis of a hierarchical Bayesian dose‐toxicity model that borrows strength between subgroups under the assumption that the subgroups are exchangeable. We evaluate a design using this model that includes subgroup‐specific dose selection and safety rules. A simulation study is presented that includes comparison of this method to 3 alternative approaches,on the basis of nonhierarchical models,that make different types of assumptions about within‐subgroup dose‐toxicity curves. The simulations show that the hierarchical model‐based method is recommended in settings where the dose‐toxicity curves are exchangeable between subgroups. We present practical guidelines for application and provide computer programs for trial simulation and conduct.     

Adaptive phase I/II clinical trials for drug combination assessment in oncology using the outcomes of each cycle

Many new anticancer agents can be combined with existing drugs, as combining a number of drugs may be expected to have a better therapeutic effect than monotherapy owing to synergistic effects. Furthermore, to drive drug development and to reduce the associated cost, there has been a growing tendency to combine these as phase I/II trials. With respect to phase I/II oncology trials for the assessment of dose combinations, in the existing methodologies in which efficacy based on tumor response and safety based on toxicity are modeled as binary outcomes, it is not possible to enroll and treat the next cohort of patients unless the best overall response has been determined in the current cohort. Thus, the trial duration might be potentially extended to an unacceptable degree. In this study, we proposed a method that randomizes the next cohort of patients in the phase II part to the dose combination based on the estimated response rate using all the available observed data upon determination of the overall response in the current cohort. We compared the proposed method to the existing method using simulation studies. These demonstrated that the percentage of optimal dose combinations selected in the proposed method is not less than that in the existing method and that the trial duration in the proposed method is shortened compared to that in the existing method. The proposed method meets both ethical and financial requirements, and we believe it has the potential to contribute to expedite drug development.     

A simple two-stage design for quantitative responses with application to a study in diabetic neuropathic pain

Two-stage designs offer substantial advantages for early phase II studies. The interim analysis following the first stage allows the study to be stopped for futility, or more positively, it might lead to early progression to the trials needed for late phase II and phase III. If the study is to continue to its second stage, then there is an opportunity for a revision of the total sample size. Two-stage designs have been implemented widely in oncology studies in which there is a single treatment arm and patient responses are binary. In this paper the case of two-arm comparative studies in which responses are quantitative is considered. This setting is common in therapeutic areas other than oncology. It will be assumed that observations are normally distributed, but that there is some doubt concerning their standard deviation, motivating the need for sample size review. The work reported has been motivated by a study in diabetic neuropathic pain, and the development of the design for that trial is described in detail.     

The complexities of cultural support planning for Indigenous children in and leaving out‐of‐home care: the views of service providers in Victoria,Australia

Indigenous children and young people are over‐represented at all stages of the Australian child protection system. Policy and legislative initiatives exist in the state of Victoria, Australia aiming to support the connection between Indigenous children and young people in state care and their culture and community. This exploratory research involved focus group consultations with seven child and family welfare agencies to investigate the impacts, barriers, benefits and limitations of cultural support planning for Indigenous young people in, and leaving care in, Victoria. Findings indicated that cultural planning was of value when it could be completed. However, various shortcomings of current systems were identified including limited resourcing of Aboriginal Community Controlled Organisations to generate plans and provide direct and secondary consultation services to implement plans, difficulty gathering information for plans and some Indigenous young people expressing disinterest in connecting to their culture and community. Complexities in the relationships between the Indigenous and non‐Indigenous agencies that aimed to support Indigenous young people in care were also acknowledged. Participants identified a number of strategies to improve outcomes, such as facilitating better relationships between agencies, promoting opportunities for ongoing cultural training for staff in mainstream agencies and improving the resourcing of Aboriginal Community Controlled Organisations to deliver planning and to support cultural connections.     

Coming Out and Job Satisfaction: A Moderated Mediation Model

Prior research suggests that the disclosure of sexual identity at work is not always significantly associated with job satisfaction. The authors investigated (a) the mediating role of workplace heterosexist climate in linking workplace outness with job satisfaction, and (b) the moderating role of anticipated discrimination in influencing the indirect and direct relationship between workplace outness and job satisfaction. This model was tested among 1,460 lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) employees in Italy. Results indicated that workplace heterosexist climate mediated relationships between workplace outness and job satisfaction. Anticipated discrimination moderated the relationships between LGB employees’ disclosure of their sexual identity and job satisfaction and between workplace heterosexist climate and job satisfaction. This moderated mediation model may assist researchers who aim to understand the complexity of the relationship between workplace outness and job satisfaction. In this regard, practitioners need to recognize the role played by workplace heterosexist climate and anticipated discrimination.     

我国中性财政政策选择解析

从一国经济的可持续发展来看,积极财政政策的实施只能是阶段性、暂时性的,随着一国经济形势的发展变化应适时适度做出相应调整,才能更加科学地调控宏观经济布局和结构,使其沿着健康、稳定的发展运行轨道前进。伴随着我国积极财政政策的连续实行,经济增长加速效应突出,国民经济领域产生了许多结构性的问题和矛盾,这迫使我国财政政策的选择有必要由扩张性向中性转移。把握积极财政政策向中性的财政政策逐步过渡的“火候”,就要充分适应经济形势的不断变化,在调控目标、调控方式、调控手段和方法组合上进行适时调整,采用更为适合我国国情的科学的宏观调控财政手段。     

中国企业“走出去”之心理认知

世界经济全球化加速、中国经济与世界经济融合度加深的现实对中国企业“走出去”提出了客观要求,中国企业“走出去”已是势在必行。受到金融危机重创的世界经济面临重振、中国经济多年发展的有效积累和向好态势可对中国企业“走出去”提供现实机遇和有力支撑,中国企业“走出去”的时机已经相当成熟。然而,中国企业在“走出去”之前,应在知己知蚀基础上理性制作战略规划,为实际启程做好精心准备,完成对企业“走出去”战略本身、企业“走出去”所在地国民文化及企业文化、有利于“走出去”的企业形象打造等方面必要的心理认知,中国企业“走出去”之路才会变得更加平坦、更加宽阔、更加顺畅、更具成效。