Tiered Approach to Resilience Assessment

Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three‐tier framework for risk assessment. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated into the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity as needed with stakeholder needs and resources available, and ultimately creating actionable recommendations to enhance resilience are still lacking. Our proposed framework consists of tiers by which analysts can select resilience assessment and decision support tools to inform associated management actions relative to the scope and urgency of the risk and the capacity of resource managers to improve system resilience. The resilience management framework proposed is not intended to supplant either risk management or the many existing efforts of resilience quantification method development, but instead provide a guide to selecting tools that are appropriate for the given analytic need. The goal of this tiered approach is to intentionally parallel the tiered approach used in regulatory contexts so that resilience assessment might be more easily and quickly integrated into existing structures and with existing policies.     

Convergence de I estimateur a noyau de derivees de Radon-Nikodym generales dans le cas melangeant

In many situations, nonparametric inference in point-process theory consists in estimating a Radon-Nikodym derivative of a nonnegative measure p with respect to another nonnegative measure v, where p and v are intensities of point processes. We consider the case of a mixing andstrictly stationary sequence of point processes and establish convergence results for the kernel estimator.     

船山词中的音韵修辞

船山词之声律多被人批评,殊不知船山作词时是很讲究声律的。从音韵角度研究船山词,可以发现船山非不懂音律,而是有意识地运用了多种音韵修辞。这些修辞手段包括传其声情、和其音韵、协其音节,不仅使其词作具有音乐美和造型美,而且还和所表达的感情非常契合。     

Semiparametric Additive Accelerated Life Models

In this paper we investigate the asymptotic properties of estimators obtained for the semiparametric additive accelerated life model proposed by Bagdonavicius & Nikulin (1995). This model generalizes the well known additive hazards model of survival analysis and is close to the general transformation model (see Dabrowska & Doksum, 1988). Asymptotic properties of the estimator of the regression parameter and the estimator of the reliability function are given in the case of right censoring for discretized data and a numerical example illustrates these results.     

地理环境与英汉语言思维顺序差异考量

不同的地理环境,造就不同的个体思维过程。个体思维过程通过语言体现出来,慢慢形成民族的集体无意识。这种集体无意识具有传承性,又反过来决定了一代又一代人的思维过程,最后演变成民族思维过程,因此生活环境不同的民族就会有不同的思维过程。英国的地理气候条件远不如中国,他们对自然的关注要多于中国,这样认识客观世界的过程就有别于中国,也就形成了不同的思维过程,表现在语言形式上,英语是形合语言,汉语是意合语言。     

Ordering behavior in a supply chain with customers that respond to changes in service level

The presence of service-level-dependent demand has been empirically observed in industry and is well-documented in the literature. How does the implicit contractual existence of such service dependency impact the ordering decisions of upstream suppliers? We conduct three controlled laboratory experiments to study the impact a service-reward mechanism may have on the upstream ordering decisions of those charged with inventory ordering decisions. The multistudy approach provides representations of decision dynamics across a variety of scenarios, from one-shot buys to long-term supply-chain relationships. Our combined empirical results consistently suggest that the service-reward mechanism significantly and systematically elevates order levels and order variability in a manner that increases departure from optimal ordering. This effect is observed even when decision-makers have incentives to maintain a steady ordering pattern with their suppliers. Our findings shed much-needed light on individual ordering responses to, and the associated risks of, service-reward mechanisms.     

英语名词汉译新探

词是构成语言的基本单位,是音、形、义的结合体。词义是词的核心,是音、形所表达的内容。英汉双语之间名词的转化既要以词义转化为核心,又要与词音、词形转化相结合。本文正是本着这种思路,从名词的音、形、义入手,结合大量的翻译事实,提出了音译,形译,义译,音义译,形义译等五种英语名词汉译的策略,重新解读了这些策略的内在机制,并探讨了这些策略的实践运用规律。     

Nadaraya–Watson estimator for I.I.D. paths of diffusion processes

This paper deals with a nonparametric Nadaraya–Watson (NW) estimator of the drift function computed from independent continuous observations of a diffusion process. Risk bounds on the estimator and its discrete-time approximation are established. The paper also deals with extensions of the PCO and leave-one-out cross-validation bandwidth selection methods for our NW estimator. Finally, some numerical experiments are provided.     

Socioeconomic Status,Family Processes,and Individual Development

Research during the past decade shows that social class or socioeconomic status (SES) is related to satisfaction and stability in romantic unions, the quality of parent‐child relationships, and a range of developmental outcomes for adults and children. This review focuses on evidence regarding potential mechanisms proposed to account for these associations. Research findings reported during the past decade demonstrate support for an interactionist model of the relationship between SES and family life, which incorporates assumptions from both the social causation and social selection perspectives. This review concludes with recommendations for future research on SES, family processes, and individual development in terms of important theoretical and methodological issues yet to be addressed.     

GMM with Weak Identification

This paper develops asymptotic distribution theory for GMM estimators and test statistics when some or all of the parameters are weakly identified. General results are obtained and are specialized to two important cases: linear instrumental variables regression and Euler equations estimation of the CCAPM. Numerical results for the CCAPM demonstrate that weak‐identification asymptotics explains the breakdown of conventional GMM procedures documented in previous Monte Carlo studies. Confidence sets immune to weak identification are proposed. We use these results to inform an empirical investigation of various CCAPM specifications; the substantive conclusions reached differ from those obtained using conventional methods.