Variance Estimators in Critical Branching Processes With Non-Homogeneous Immigration

The asymptotic normality of conditional least squares estimators for the offspring variance in critical branching processes with nonhomogeneous immigration is established, under moment assumptions on both reproduction and immigration. The proofs use martingale techniques and weak convergence results in Skorokhod spaces.     

The multistate life table with duration‐dependence

A method for generalizing the multistate, or increment‐decrement, life table to include rates which depend upon duration of exposure to risk, as well as upon age, is proposed. The method is built upon the linear approximation, called the linear integration hypothesis, developed mainly by Rogers and his colleagues. Although the use of rates indexed by duration categories leads to a substantial increase in the state space of the model, it is possible to arrange the rates in such a way that matrices to be inverted are no larger than those encountered in the usual multistate life table. In the more general approach it is possible to derive several new summary indices of the life‐table cohort's history, such as the mean and median time in current status, at any age. The method is illustrated using a simple four‐state marital‐status model which has appeared often in the literature; here, rates of divorce and widowhood vary by duration of marriage as well as age.     

Influence curve of the monotonic dependence function for binormal distributions

Explicit formulae are derived for the influence curve of the monotonic dependence function in the case of binormal distributions, and are compared with those for the correlation coefficient. The interpretation of the comparison is given.     

Collective Action,Everyday Protest,and Lived Religion

The conflict in 2001 at the Kukdong (now Mexmode) maquila garment factory is one of the rare cases of success in the wider struggle for independent unionism in Mexico. The success of the struggle, which has attracted scholars interested in the campaigns against sweatshop labour conditions and on behalf of labour internationalism, has been attributed chiefly to the role played by transnational advocacy networks in mobilizing pressure on the global sportswear giant Nike, whose brand-name, collegiate apparel was being produced in the plant. In this paper we seek not to explain why the struggle was successful, but to examine the trajectory it took over a protracted period of about nine months. We draw on McAdam et al.'s reformulation of the analysis of contentious, transgressive politics to identify three mechanisms that were particularly salient in shaping the course taken by the conflict: scale shift, actor decomposition, and brokerage. Scale shift occurred as the workers quickly escalated the conflict by broadening their demands from the resolution of particular concrete grievances to a demand for freedom of association that made the existing corporatist union, the FROC-CROC, which had a signed a protection contract with the plant's management, the principal target of opposition and challenge. Actor decomposition occurred as the workers' strategy locally and transnationally sought to isolate the FROC-CROC by detaching it from other members of the corporate–state bloc (Kukdong management, Nike, and the local political authorities). Brokerage, finally, occurred as Nike in particular was used to mediate pressure from the workers' transnational supporters (principally labour rights NGOs and the anti-sweatshop movement) on Kukdong and the local political authorities to respect the workers' right to freedom of association, which resulted in the ouster of the FROC-CROC as the legally certified union at the factory and its replacement with an independent union (SITEMEX) formed by the workers themselves.     

Cognitive Processes: Their Influence on Varying Pathways to Recovery

ABSTRACT

Cognitive processes have been known to have a significant impact on recovery from alcohol and other drugs. From a study of self-changers (natural recoverers) without treatment or self-help groups, analysis of the data has identified beliefs that influenced the change experience–from the evaluation of reasons for drinking and the consequences that instigated the motivation and determination to take action, to the individually-conceived strategies to implement and maintain abstinence, and the perceived consequences of abstaining. Belief systems and strategies of recovery are compared across three pathways to recovery–self-change, cognitively-oriented treatment, and Alcoholics Anonymous.     

A new economic scheme for CCC charts with run rules based on average number of inspected items

New statistical techniques and procedures have been developed to control high-yield processes along with looking for process improvement opportunities and minimizing production cost. Cumulative count of conforming control chart is generally a technique for high-quality processes, when nonconforming items are rarely produced. The objective of this study is to design control chart based on cumulative count of conforming items and run rules that develops an economic model based on the average number of inspected items to design m-of-m CCC chart in order to facilitate minimum average cost per item produced. The optimal design parameters for different values of nonconforming fraction and different cost parameters in each scenario are determined. Finally, to analyze the behavior of optimal economic solutions, sensitivity analysis of the model parameters is performed.     

Poultry and policy in Ghana: Lessons from the periphery of an agricultural policy system

We analyze poultry‐related policy documents from Ghana and ask how the problems identified and the actions proposed have changed over time. The analysis highlights the fact of limited and poor quality data, and associated uncertainty, ambiguity and poor specification of both problems and interventions. It also points to a long‐term commitment to intensive commercial production as the preferred pathway to deliver more animal protein. However, in the face of persistent feed constraints and economic liberalization, imports of frozen chicken have sky‐rocketed since the early 2000s, and a new pathway has come to dominate. We discuss this outcome and what it says more generally about policy around minor crops and livestock species.     

Moment method estimation of first-order continuous-time bilinear processes

In the present paper, we propose an estimation method of the first order continuous-time bilinear (COBL) process based on Euler-Maruyama discretization of the Itô solution asociated with the stochastic differerential equation (SDE) defining the process, and we suggest a standard moment method (MM) estimates of the unknown parameters involving in COBL process. So, some relationships linking the parameters and the theoretical moments of the process and its quadratic version are given. These relationships we allow to construct two algorithms to estimate the parameters based on MM. Using the fact that the incremented processes are strongly mixing with exponential rate whenever certain conditions are fulfilled, we show that the resulting estimators are strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. The theory can be applied to the COGARCH(1, 1), Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) models and among other specifications. Finite sample properties are also considered throught Monte-Carlo experimencts. In end, this algorithm is then used to model the exchanges rate of the Algerian Dinar against the US-dollar and against the single European currency.     

Construction of a criterion for testing hypothesis about covariance function of a stationary Gaussian stochastic process with unknown mean

In this paper, a new criterion is constructed for testing hypothesis about covariance function of Gaussian stationary stochastic process with an unknown mean. This criterion is based on the fact that we can estimate the deviation of covariance function from its estimator with a given accuracy and reliability in L_p metric.     

An adaptation of the EOQ formula for JIT quasi-pull system production

This research demonstrates for the first time that in a just-in-time (JIT) quasi-pull production environment, a model adapted from the Economic Order Quantity and made up of two specific formulas can be employed for calculating an optimised lot size. The assumptions of our model are: a low level of defects, and insignificant shortage backordering and failure of the equipment. JIT quasi-pull production is the state typically reached by many manufacturing companies because it is almost impossible to achieve zero set-ups and zero work-in-process (WIPs) even in the best Lean Production implementations. In this model, finished products are shipped at once in a JIT way. The two developed formulas are specialised: one for balanced stations/processes and the other for unbalanced stations; the formulas allow calculation of an optimised lot size. Several applications of the formulas have been tested and discussed through a case study. Findings demonstrated that the optimised quantity of a lot size has to be smaller than the customer’s daily demand for the product. Moreover, in case of unbalanced stations with long cycle times, the formula forces the company to reduce its set-up times and the cycle times. The new model will be of interest to practitioners who are seeking a way to balance the costs of set-ups and the cost of holding some WIPs and offers interesting avenues for new research.