Fractional replication in simulation studies

It is shown how to use fractional replication in simulation studies. Examples are given. Considerable savings in number of runs required can be achieved through the use of fractional replication ideas.     

Imputation procedures for categorical data: their effects on the goodness-of-fit chi-square statistic

An imputation procedure is a procedure by which each missing value in a data set is replaced (imputed) by an observed value using a predetermined resampling procedure. The distribution of a statistic computed from a data set consisting of observed and imputed values, called a completed data set, is affecwd by the imputation procedure used. In a Monte Carlo experiment, three imputation procedures are compared with respect to the empirical behavior of the goodness-of- fit chi-square statistic computed from a completed data set. The results show that each imputation procedure affects the distribution of the goodness-of-fit chi-square statistic in 3. different manner. However, when the empirical behavior of the goodness-of-fit chi-square statistic is compared u, its appropriate asymptotic distribution, there are no substantial differences between these imputation procedures.     

多媒体电子教案在外语教学中的应用

阐述了多媒体电子教案的特点、制作环境、以及 Power Point97在制作电子教案中的优势 ,讲述了作者利用 Power Point97制作多媒体电子教案辅助外语教学的过程及使用体会     

Communicating Worst-Case Scenarios: Neighbors'' Views of Industrial Accident Management

The prospect of industrial accidents motivated the U.S. Congress to require in the Clean Air Act of 1990 that manufacturing facilities develop Risk Management Plans (RMP) to submit to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) by July 1999. Industry worried that the requirement to communicate to the public a "worst-case scenario" would arouse unnecessary and counterproductive fears among industry neighbors. We report here the results of focus groups and surveys with such neighbors, focusing particularly upon their reactions to messages about a hypothetical worst-case scenario and management of these risks by industry, government, and other parties. Our findings confirmed our hypotheses that citizens would be skeptical of the competence and trustworthiness of these managers and that this stance would color their views of industrial-facility accident risks. People with job ties to industry or who saw industrial benefits to the community as exceeding its risks had more positive views of industrial risks, but still expressed great concern about the risk and doubt about accident management. Notwithstanding these reactions, overall respondents welcomed this and other related information, which they wanted their local industries to supply. Respondents were not more reassured by additional text describing management of accidents by government and industry. However, respondents did react very positively to the concept of community oversight to review plant safety. Claims about the firm's moral obligation or financial self-interest in preventing accidents were also received positively. Further research on innovative communication and management of accident risks is warranted by these results, even before recent terrorist attacks made this topic more salient.     

素质教育、创新教育与人才培养计划

素质教育、创新教育的教育思想如何体现,十几年来在高等教育的教育改革与实践中被研究、深化.人才培养计划作为人才培养的指导性文件,是人才培养的指南.如何能够较好体现素质教育、创新教育思想,是将人才培养计划落在实处的重要方面.     

论我国司法独立的现状及其改革设想

我国现有的司法独立与真正的司法独立尚有诸多差距 ,突出地表现在 :人民法院和人民检察院未能真正独立行使职权 ,下级法院未能真正独立行使职权 ,法官未能真正独立行使职权等。为了真正实现司法独立 ,必须对现有状况进行改革     

On designing an acceptance sampling plan for the Pareto lifetime model

In this paper, the design of reliability sampling plans for the Pareto lifetime model under progressive Type-II right censoring is considered. Sampling plans are derived using the decision theoretic approach with a suitable loss or cost function that consists of sampling cost, rejection cost, and acceptance cost. The decision rule is based on the estimated reliability function. Plans are constructed within the Bayesian context using the natural conjugate prior. Simulations for evaluating the Bayes risk are carried out and the optimal sampling plans are reported for various sample sizes, observed number of failures and removal probabilities.     

Making Strategic Communications Work to Prevent Elder Abuse

ABSTRACT

With more and more noise hitting the public, more tasks to accomplish, and limited resources, elder abuse prevention organizations must speak with one voice and act in solid partnership. This article touches on processes, systems, procedures, and resources necessary to develop strategic communications plans that are single in strategy and consistent in objectives and image. While the problem of elder abuse has been primarily covered in the academic and health professional press, this article focuses on the usage of mainstream marketing and communications principles to offer suggestions on how to achieve broad national awareness of the issues.     

美国企业年金"三驾马车"监管体制的运行与协调

美国对企业年金的监管实行的是"分权式"监管体制,这是在企业年金发展过程中制度长期选择的结果.本文通过对美国企业年金监管体制运行和协调的分析,发现该体制具有四个重要特点:一是监管机构设置健全,运行机制可靠,部门之间监管责任清晰,避免了监管真空的出现.二是监管部门之间加强合作,提高监管效率,避免了监管责任的重叠.三是监管机构的地位和出发点不同,增强了对计划参与者和受益人的保护程度.四是给予劳工部可以随时干预任何对企业年金计划参与者权益方面造成重大影响的事件的特殊权力,保证了监管体制的平稳运行.     

Envisioning Beijing 2020 through sketches of urban scenarios

To provide the decision-makers in Beijing, China, with an assessment of alternative development futures, we introduce scenario planning to process of drafting Beijing's 2020 Plan. The sketches of scenarios for Beijing are fruitful in several ways. First, the development of scenarios can meet the Beijing Municipal Commission of Urban Planning (BMCUP)'s needs to explore different urban development options. Second, scenario planning can accommodate uncertainty in economic and population growth caused in part by China's rapid social and economic transformation. Third, in the course of creating evaluation framework to assess scenarios, scenario planning informs decision-makers about choices regarding predicted outcomes. We demonstrate that in a city that is experiencing unforeseen growth in the era of transformations, the decision-making process can be informed by evaluating the performance of alternative development scenarios.