政党整合、群众路线与村治创新

乡村善治是国家治理现代化的基石。当前乡村社会关系的快速变迁与村民自治制度的准科层化倾向不利于政党政治的社会化基础建构,易造成执政党在乡村场域中的关系边缘化和治理悬浮化,消解这种边缘与悬浮风险的核心在于建构以基层党组织为核心的“双向整合-理性嵌入”的践行群众路线的新机制。一方面,通过组织结构优化、精英下沉与精英吸纳以及选择性激励强化党的内部整合;另一方面,通过组织、制度和价值的多维理性嵌入的方式整合乡村社会,在嵌入的过程中建构以群众为基础的治理资源、提升基层社会的治理技能以及培育村庄的政治社会化意识。在通过此机制综合分析农业农村部推介的乡村治理典型案例过程中,归纳出政党整合在村治创新中的核心价值是形成以基层党组织的领导为轴心、村庄多元主体有机参与的乡村社会治理共同体。此外,这种“双向整合-理性嵌入”机制的功能发挥依赖于村庄集体经济的发展、乡村简约主义治理的激活以及理性服务型政党的建构的三重支撑。     

中国内地和香港能否构成最优货币区研究--来自实证结果的分析

亚洲金融危机后 ,东亚和东南亚国家开始探讨亚洲货币合作问题 ,“亚元”也被提出并受到越来越多的关注。对于统一主权下的中国内地和香港来说 ,在这方面能否先行一步 ?尤其是随着两地经济一体化的发展 ,内地和香港会不会像欧盟那样在经济一体化条件成熟后采用单一货币呢 ?文章在最优货币区理论的基础上对内地和香港经济冲击的对称性进行研究 ,探讨人民币和港币是否有条件实现货币一体化。研究表明目前内地和香港经济冲击的对称性不够高 ,还没有满足组成最优货币区的条件 ,但是从内地和香港未来的发展方向来看 ,经济冲击的对称性将随着经济一体化程度的提高而提高 ,货币一体化的条件也将逐渐成熟。     

台湾地区家庭教育政策法规制订实施特点及其对大陆的启示

台湾是目前世界上唯一通过正式颁布“家庭教育法”来推动家庭教育事业发展的地区。台湾地区家庭教育政策法规的制订实施对大陆地区具有重要的借鉴意义。台湾地区家庭教育政策法规的制订体系完整,并经过多次修订。台湾地区家庭教育政策法规有稳定的实施机构,有力的经费支持,整合的政府资源以及配套的活动课程。大陆地区应加快家庭教育法治化进程,成立家庭教育立法小组,立体化家庭教育服务网络,建立家庭教育经费保障机制,配套有地方特色的活动课程并重视培养家庭教育专业人才。     

A Research on Tourism Development Level Measurement and Innovation Integration Development in Bay Area of Hangzhou Bay

As a national strategic pillar industry of tourism, it is very important to explore the innovation and integration of tourism industry in Bay area of Hangzhou Bay. Based on the economic data of seven cities in Bay area of Hangzhou Bay from 2003 to 2016, this paper establishes an index system for evaluating the competitiveness of tourism industry, uses the method of information entropy weight to determine the index weight, and uses the method of standard deviation and coefficient of variation to measure the development level of tourism industry in Bay area comprehensively. The results show that:(1) The competitiveness of tourism industry in Bay area has risen slightly over the past 14 years, and the ranking of competitiveness of cities has shown a stable trend, and the trend of integration is obvious. (2) The advantages of human tourism resources in Bay area urban agglomeration are obvious. It is necessary to reorganize, complement, innovate and integrate the tourism resources of each city in the region, and take “culture + science and technology” as the driving force to promote the transformation, upgrading, innovation and development of tourism products.(3) The tourism industry in Bay area should take resource endowment as its core competitiveness, strengthen the construction of ecological environment in the whole region, seek the upgrading and expansion mode of “pan-text tourism industry” with the help of information technology and regional excellent traffic conditions, economic basis and innovation ability, and realize the leap of “quality” of the competitiveness of tourism industry in Bay area.     

农户兼业、生产性服务与水稻种植面积决策——基于11省1646户农户的实证研究

本文基于全国11省1646户农户调研数据,构建实证模型分析了农户兼业、生产性服务与水稻种植面积之间的关系。结果表明,在兼业农户比重和平均兼业水平都很高的背景下,兼业导致的“劳动力流失效应”在纯农户和兼业农户的种植面积决策中均有所体现,并且在一兼农户中表现最为显著,而“投资效应”仅体现在纯农户的种植面积决策上。接受生产性服务有助于提高各类农户的种植面积,能够缓解种稻劳动力流失对种植面积造成的负面影响,同时能够缓解一兼农户农业收入比重下降对种植面积造成的负面影响。由此,加强粮食产业生产性服务体系建设、加大纯农户粮食生产补贴力度等是稳定我国水稻生产的重要举措。     

Euro area inflation as a predictor of national inflation rates

The stability of inflation differentials is an important condition for the smooth working of a currency area, such as the European Economic and Monetary Union. In the presence of stability, changes in national inflation rates, while holding Euro area inflation fixed contemporaneously, should be only transitory. If this is the case, the rate of inflation of the whole area can also be interpreted as a predictor, at least in the long-run, of the different national inflation rates. However, in this paper we show that this condition is satisfied only for a small number of countries, including France and Italy. Better convergence results for inflation differentials are, instead, found for the USA. Some policy implications are drawn for the Eurozone.     

Higher-order Bayesian Approximations for Pseudo-posterior Distributions

The theory of higher-order asymptotics provides accurate approximations to posterior distributions for a scalar parameter of interest, and to the corresponding tail area, for practical use in Bayesian analysis. The aim of this article is to extend these approximations to pseudo-posterior distributions, e.g., posterior distributions based on a pseudo-likelihood function and a suitable prior, which are proved to be particularly useful when the full likelihood is analytically or computationally infeasible. In particular, from a theoretical point of view, we derive the Laplace approximation for a pseudo-posterior distribution, and for the corresponding tail area, for a scalar parameter of interest, also in the presence of nuisance parameters. From a computational point of view, starting from these higher-order approximations, we discuss the higher-order tail area (HOTA) algorithm useful to approximate marginal posterior distributions, and related quantities. Compared to standard Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, the main advantage of the HOTA algorithm is that it gives independent samples at a negligible computational cost. The relevant computations are illustrated by two examples.     

论新中国成立后街道校外教育的社会作用——以北京地区为中心（1949-1965）

新中国成立后,街道办事处与居委会等组织为弥补学校教育的不足,积极开展少年儿童校外教育,有效的实现了学校教育、社会教育、家庭教育的互动与结合.街居制下校外教育的发展,有效的净化了社会环境,为少年儿童的成长创建了良好的社会氛围,发挥了积极作用.     

广东地区高校图书馆新生入馆教育现状与创新

对广东地区33所高校的新生入馆教育现状进行调查，从教育模式、教育内容、网络化建设、技术应用等4个方面，对调查所得的数据进行分析，探究广东地区高校新生入馆教育现状和存在的问题，并进一步探讨了高校图书馆新生入馆教育创新的对策。     

大芦家地区东二1亚段砂体微相纵横向分布研究

大芦家地区渐新统东二1亚段主要由三角洲前缘亚相组成,发育的微相类型包括河口坝、水下分流河道、水下决口扇及天然堤、远砂坝、席状砂、分流间湾等,它们在纵横向上表现出多次复合,多次叠加的特征,且各微相的界限和单砂层的界限并不一致;所有这些微相在垂向上的沉积序列可分为均一型、垂向减小型和垂向增大型三类;此外,该区三角洲体系沉积物源主要由河流从西北方向搬运而来,属高建设性的河控型三角洲,其平面呈朵状向东南方或南方延伸,其微相模式的特点是水下分流河道和河口坝沉积位于中心,其他微相分布在它们的外缘。