辗转在“漂”与“游”之间的精神独行者漂泊意识对萧红小说创作的影响及其形成动因

纵观萧红的一生,漂泊是她无法逃脱的命运,漂泊感也就成了她终生化解不开的情结.由此产生的漂泊意识浸润在她众多的作品中,成为她表现生活的独特视角,因而成就了萧红小说在女性文学史乃至现代文学史上无可替代的独特地位和恒久的艺术魅力.究其形成的原因,又是与萧红童年的生活环境、所处的文化背景以及民族危机紧密相关.本文就是从以上三个方面具体阐释漂泊意识与萧红小说创作的内在联系.     

孔子学院的发展现状、问题及趋势

孔子学院是以教授汉语和传播中国文化为宗旨的非营利的公益机构，是海外朋友学习汉语了解中国的窗口，也是学习借鉴不同文化、促进多元文化交流发展而构建和谐世界的平台。作为汉语国际推广的龙头产品，孔子学院的建设已经初具规模，发展的势头引人瞩目。本文谨就孔子学院的发展现状、存在问题以及未来的趋势作一概括性的阐述和分析。     

Backfitting Random Varying-Coefficient Models with Time-Dependent Smoothing Covariates

Abstract.  In this paper, we propose a random varying-coefficient model for longitudinal data. This model is different from the standard varying-coefficient model in the sense that the time-varying coefficients are assumed to be subject-specific, and can be considered as realizations of stochastic processes. This modelling strategy allows us to employ powerful mixed-effects modelling techniques to efficiently incorporate the within-subject and between-subject variations in the estimators of time-varying coefficients. Thus, the subject-specific feature of longitudinal data is effectively considered in the proposed model. A backfitting algorithm is proposed to estimate the coefficient functions. Simulation studies show that the proposed estimation methods are more efficient in finite-sample performance compared with the standard local least squares method. An application to an AIDS clinical study is presented to illustrate the proposed methodologies.     

Estimating household structure in ancient China by using historical data: a latent class analysis of partially missing patterns

Summary.  Social data often contain missing information. The problem is inevitably severe when analysing historical data. Conventionally, researchers analyse complete records only. Listwise deletion not only reduces the effective sample size but also may result in biased estimation, depending on the missingness mechanism. We analyse household types by using population registers from ancient China (618–907 AD) by comparing a simple classification, a latent class model of the complete data and a latent class model of the complete and partially missing data assuming four types of ignorable and non-ignorable missingness mechanisms. The findings show that either a frequency classification or a latent class analysis using the complete records only yielded biased estimates and incorrect conclusions in the presence of partially missing data of a non-ignorable mechanism. Although simply assuming ignorable or non-ignorable missing data produced consistently similarly higher estimates of the proportion of complex households, a specification of the relationship between the latent variable and the degree of missingness by a row effect uniform association model helped to capture the missingness mechanism better and improved the model fit.     

论美术新课程教学过程的特征

新的《全日制义务教育美术课程标准(实验稿)》,要求美术教育以发展学生的艺术素养、人文素养及促进学生的发展为主要目标。新标准要求下的美术教育与传统美术教育相比,教学过程具有学生中心性、综合性、过程性、实践性、开放性、创造性、师生互动性、美育性、兴趣性和个性性等新的特征。     

神性、人性和理性--略论艺术形态与时代精神

艺术的本质在于其精神性,从艺术和时代精神的相互关系中去确立划分艺术形态的标准是符合艺术本质的.按照艺术所包含的精神内容的不同,艺术形态可分为神性艺术、人性艺术和理性艺术,以丰富的艺术史例可以说明其特征.     

Choice of the primary analysis in longitudinal clinical trials

Missing data, and the bias they can cause, are an almost ever‐present concern in clinical trials. The last observation carried forward (LOCF) approach has been frequently utilized to handle missing data in clinical trials, and is often specified in conjunction with analysis of variance (LOCF ANOVA) for the primary analysis. Considerable advances in statistical methodology, and in our ability to implement these methods, have been made in recent years. Likelihood‐based, mixed‐effects model approaches implemented under the missing at random (MAR) framework are now easy to implement, and are commonly used to analyse clinical trial data. Furthermore, such approaches are more robust to the biases from missing data, and provide better control of Type I and Type II errors than LOCF ANOVA. Empirical research and analytic proof have demonstrated that the behaviour of LOCF is uncertain, and in many situations it has not been conservative. Using LOCF as a composite measure of safety, tolerability and efficacy can lead to erroneous conclusions regarding the effectiveness of a drug. This approach also violates the fundamental basis of statistics as it involves testing an outcome that is not a physical parameter of the population, but rather a quantity that can be influenced by investigator behaviour, trial design, etc. Practice should shift away from using LOCF ANOVA as the primary analysis and focus on likelihood‐based, mixed‐effects model approaches developed under the MAR framework, with missing not at random methods used to assess robustness of the primary analysis. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bias Correction in the Dynamic Panel Data Model with a Nonscalar Disturbance Covariance Matrix

Approximation formulae are developed for the bias of ordinary and generalized Least Squares Dummy Variable (LSDV) estimators in dynamic panel data models. Results from Kiviet [Kiviet, J. F. (1995), on bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models, J. Econometrics68:53-78; Kiviet, J. F. (1999), Expectations of expansions for estimators in a dynamic panel data model: some results for weakly exogenous regressors, In: Hsiao, C., Lahiri, K., Lee, L-F., Pesaran, M. H., eds., Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent Variables, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 199-225] are extended to higher-order dynamic panel data models with general covariance structure. The focus is on estimation of both short- and long-run coefficients. The results show that proper modelling of the disturbance covariance structure is indispensable. The bias approximations are used to construct bias corrected estimators which are then applied to quarterly data from 14 European Union countries. Money demand functions for M1, M2 and M3 are estimated for the EU area as a whole for the period 1991: I-1995: IV. Significant spillovers between countries are found reflecting the dependence of domestic money demand on foreign developments. The empirical results show that in general plausible long-run effects are obtained by the bias corrected estimators. Moreover, finite sample bias, although of moderate magnitude, is present underlining the importance of more refined estimation techniques. Also the efficiency gains by exploiting the heteroscedasticity and cross-correlation patterns between countries are sometimes considerable.     

贫困地区基础教育人才流失的现状与对策

近年来 ,贫困地区基础教育人才流向发达地区的比率增大 ,严重地影响了当地基础教育的发展。作为教育管理者 ,应高度重视这一现象 ,采取有效措施 ,完善教育人才管理体制 ,留住人才 ,以保证本地区教育事业的健康发展     

ROBUST METHODS FOR DEPENDENT CELL PEDIGREE DATA

This paper studies a robust approach to the analysis of cell pedigree data, building on the work of Huggins & Marschner (1991) which discussed M-estimation for the so-called bifurcating autoregressive process. The study allows for incomplete observation of the pedigree, and incorporates the possibility of additive effects outliers, as discussed in the time series literature. Some properties of the proposed estimation procedure are studied, including a Monte Carlo investigation of robustness in the presence of contamination.