基于模糊神经网络的城市公园休闲满意度测评——以济南市泉城公园为例

依托Beard和Ragheb休闲满意度测量简表,采用问卷调查法和因子分析法构建了城市公园休闲满意度测评指标体系,使用Matlab软件中的模糊神经网络算法测评山东省济南市泉城公园休闲满意度,并进行测评指标的重要性—绩效分析（IPA）。使用模糊神经网络算法对济南泉城公园休闲满意度测评的结果与实际情况基本吻合,该方法在城市公园休闲满意度测评研究中具有可行性;模糊神经网络测评结果显示:济南泉城公园受访者对其休闲体验总体持“满意”态度,对公园休闲的放松体验持“比较满意”态度,而对公园休闲的教育功能、心理体验、社交功能、审美功能和身体满意度同样持“满意”态度;IPA结果显示:公园休闲的教育和放松满意度各指标均需要继续保持,身体满意度全部指标需后续改进。     

Time series analysis of stratospheric ozone

Time series analyses of monthly average total ozone measured at 37 stations throughout the world were used to estimate the extent to which the average ozone trend correlates with the depletion curve hypothesized as due to chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Statistical characteristics of stations in the ensemble were used to help define appropriate model and station selection criteria. The maximum likelihood procedure developed herein estimates the weighted average trend, its. variance, and the intra- and inter-station variance components of the trend. Correlations among trends at different stations are also taken into account. The models were subjected to much checking and criticism. Variations in statistical methodology are used to show that the results are insensitive to details of the model selection criteria. The method does not discriminate well between the hypothesized CFC trend and a linear trend. The trend estimates represent the sum of all long-term global effects. The variance includes all effects that differ from station-to-station. The estimated trend and 2α limits for 14 stations with 20-year records (1958-79) is an ozone increase through 1979 of (1.5+1.0) percent. At the 23 stations with shorter records, the trend is (1.0=1.7) percent. It is concluded that no significant depletion in stratospheric ozone has occurred from any cause through the end of 1979.     

Some Observations,a Suggestion,and Some Comments on the Conway-Roberts Article

This article provides new tools for the evaluation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and applies them to a large-scale new Keynesian model. We approximate the DSGE model by a vector autoregression, and then systematically relax the implied cross-equation restrictions and document how the model fit changes. We also compare the DSGE model's impulse responses to structural shocks with those obtained after relaxing its restrictions. We find that the degree of misspecification in this large-scale DSGE model is no longer so large as to prevent its use in day-to-day policy analysis, yet is not small enough to be ignored.     

The Implications of Using Messy Data to Estimate Production-Frontier-Based Technical Efficiency Measures

An empirical study of efficiency at the plant level, requiring production and financial data, was done using frontier function specifications. It is not evident from the implementation of the production-frontier models that different methodologies will consistently flag the same observations as being efficient or inefficient. As a result, outlier diagnostics for individual observations and for subsets of observations are used to achieve a relative index of influentiality within the spectrum of efficiency. These outlier diagnostic tests consistently flag the same subset of efficient and inefficient observations as the frontier models and additionally clarify ranking discrepancies among the frontier model specifications.     

西部地区物流实力综合评价实证分析

通过构建评价物流实力的指标体系,选取15个与物流业相关的具有代表性的评价指标作为西部十省(市)区的物流实力综合评价的原始指标,利用改进的主成分分析法对15个指标数据进行处理分析,对西部十省(市)区物流实力给出了客观评价,并指出了主要的影响指标,同时就物流业进一步发展提出了积极、合理的建议。     

基于改进D—S证据理论的TOPSIS模型在科技奖励评价中的应用

针对科技奖励评价的特点,根据改进D—S证据合成规则,将专家的评价指标值转化为指标的综合得分并形成决策矩阵;结合TOPSIS模型求解理想解和负理想解,计算距离和贴近度,对各评价项目进行综合排名。实证结果表明：该模型能够很好地解决科技奖励评价过程中的不确定性问题,为科技奖励综合评价提供了一种新的思路。     

A note on estimation in bernoulli trials with dependence

Finite sample properties of estimators for the parameters of a dependent Bernoulli process are investigated using Monte Carlo techniques. A ratio estimator is proposed for the dependence parameter of the model and is compared to the approximate maximum likelihood estimator given by Klotz. It is shown that both estimators have a downward bias that is extreme in certain cases and that samples well in excess of 200 may be necessary before the asymptotic theory can be applied.     

A Welcome to the International Statistical Conferences

Criteria for assessing the effectiveness of a medical screening program are difficult to define; medical knowledge and screening procedures change rapidly, and self-selection at medical screens is unavoidable. This article discusses these and other basic issues in evaluation of medical screening programs with particular reference to results from the HIP breast cancer study. In addition, the article reviews various statistical models that describe the processes of disease and screening. The models are shown to be statistically indistinguishable in practice because of the small sample sizes typically available in medical screening trials. Finally the article suggests incorporating knowledge from clinical trials and from studies of robustness into statistical models designed to identify reasonable strategies for screening.     

Aspects of Statistical Computing: What Packages for the 1980's Ought to Do

A wish list of desirable statistical computing capabilities is presented. This may help one question which of these capabilities can be satisfied by existing packages, which might be met through reasonable extensions to these packages, which might require substantial new development, and which ought to be supplied by the computing environment rather than the packages. These questions are explored, taking into account the nature of the statistical work and the choices presented by technology. Attention is given to the barriers to be overcome if future statistical packages are to take full advantage of new technology.     

中国式现代化指数构建研究

开启全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程是新时代的战略安排,是中国共产党确立的伟大目标。构建科学合理的中国式现代化指数及其评估指标体系,对以中国式现代化全面推进中华民族伟大复兴意义重大。结合中国式现代化的内涵及其五大特征,按照党的二十大报告的总体框架构建中国式现代化指数评估指标体系,指标体系共囊括“经济现代化”“科教现代化”“政治现代化”“法治现代化”“文化现代化”“社会现代化”“生态现代化”“国家安全、国防与军队现代化”“和平发展现代化”和“党的建设现代化”等10个一级指标,以及41个二级指标,分别从主观、客观两个维度设置130个三级基本指标和特色指标,进而深入分析指标的基本构成及测算方法等。中国式现代化指数系统回答了什么是中国式现代化,应该以什么样的标准或指标对中国式现代化进行测量。在此基础上,从中国式现代化建设成效、党委政府业绩考核等多个维度探讨中国式现代化指数的应用前景。