Point predictors of the latent failure times of censored units in progressively Type-II censored competing risks data from the exponential distributions

In this paper, we discuss the problem of predicting times to the latent failures of units censored in multiple stages in a progressively Type-II censored competing risks model. It is assumed that the lifetime distribution of the latent failure times are independent and exponential-distributed with the different scale parameters. Several classical point predictors such as the maximum likelihood predictor, the best unbiased predictor, the best linear unbiased predictor, the median unbiased predictor and the conditional median predictor are obtained. The Bayesian point predictors are derived under squared error loss criterion. Moreover, the point estimators of the unknown parameters are obtained using the observed data and different point predictors of the latent failure times. Finally, Monte-Carlo simulations are carried out to compare the performances of the different methods of prediction and estimation and one real data is used to illustrate the proposed procedures.     

Bivariate deconvolution with SIMEX: an application to mapping Alaska earthquake density

Constructing spatial density maps of seismic events, such as earthquake hypocentres, is complicated by the fact that events are not located precisely. In this paper, we present a method for estimating density maps from event locations that are measured with error. The estimator is based on the simulation–extrapolation method of estimation and is appropriate for location errors that are either homoscedastic or heteroscedastic. A simulation study shows that the estimator outperforms the standard estimator of density that ignores location errors in the data, even when location errors are spatially dependent. We apply our method to construct an estimated density map of earthquake hypocenters using data from the Alaska earthquake catalogue.     

Pool‐Point Distribution of Zero‐Inventory Products

We study zero‐inventory production‐distribution systems under pool‐point delivery. The zero‐inventory production and distribution paradigm is supported in a variety of industries in which a product cannot be inventoried because of its short shelf life. The advantages of pool‐point (or hub‐and‐spoke) distribution, explored extensively in the literature, include the efficient use of transportation resources and effective day‐to‐day management of operations. The setting of our analysis is as follows: A production facility (plant) with a finite production rate distributes its single product, which cannot be inventoried, to several pool points. Each pool point may require multiple truckloads to satisfy its customers' demand. A third‐party logistics provider then transports the product to individual customers surrounding each pool point. The production rate can be increased up to a certain limit by incurring additional cost. The delivery of the product is done by identical trucks, each having limited capacity and non‐negligible traveling time between the plant and the pool points. Our objective is to coordinate the production and transportation operations so that the total cost of production and distribution is minimized, while respecting the product lifetime and the delivery capacity constraints. This study attempts to develop intuition into zero‐inventory production‐distribution systems under pool‐point delivery by considering several variants of the above setting. These include multiple trucks, a modifiable production rate, and alternative objectives. Using a combination of theoretical analysis and computational experiments, we gain insights into optimizing the total cost of a production‐delivery plan by understanding the trade‐off between production and transportation.     

创新活动的切入点及其掌控方法的探讨

寻找创新活动切入点的问题一直受到人们的关注。萌动因素、启动时空与推动方式是构成创新活动切入点的基本要素的;在此基础上,挖掘创新活动切入点的前提与基础,可以得出"结合专业特色、巧妙利用基础知识、合理借鉴前人成果"的创新切入点发掘方法。     

商务英语学基本问题与逻辑起点研究

商务英语学作为一门独立的学科要建立起来,需要明确其学科的基本问题及其逻辑起点,因为学科的基本问题是一门学科的中心所在,逻辑起点是学科的基石和血脉。对商务英语学科的基本问题和逻辑起点进行了探讨,认为商务英语学的基本问题是"商务"与"英语"的交叉平衡问题,逻辑起点是"商务英语教育"活动。     

受教育者接受马克思主义理论的基点探究

受教育者接受马克思主义理论必然存在着何以可能的基点问题。从受教育者的角度来看,归根结底是制约其直接精神心理需要的物质利益,并且是最终站在广大人民群众立场上的物质利益;从马克思主义理论的角度来看,其立论的基点则是鲜明的广大人民群众的物质利益。所以,广大人民群众的物质利益是受教育者接受马克思主义理论的基点。这决定了只有注重培养受教育者从这个基点出发,正确处理个人利益与广大人民群众物质利益的对立与统一,才能真正促使受教育者接受马克思主义理论,马克思主义理论教育也才能取得实际的效果。     

穆木天文学起点与日本因素

穆木天早期留日经历在中国现代作家中极具代表性。日本留学生涯使穆木天由立志工业救国,转而走向文学,沉溺于象征主义,继而写作了被称为中国象征主义宣言书的《谭诗》,期间他的创作激情也得以激发,出版了诗集《旅心》。日本成为穆木天文学的起点,这在很大程度上左右着穆木天以后的文学轨迹。     

皖籍知识分子与新文化运动——以《新青年》的安徽作者群为例

皖籍知识分子在新文化运动中是极具代表性的先进群体。随着《新青年》的创刊,在陈独秀的周围迅速地结集了以皖籍进步青年知识分子为主的作者队伍。而那些非皖籍的撰稿者们,无一不是与陈独秀关系熟稔或是有过一定的交往。地域情结固然是促成他们聚集的首要因素,但是共同的思想基点才是他们相互之间得以合作和联络的情感纽带和内在动因。     

自驾游背景下考虑参考点依赖的酒店定价策略

随着居民私家车保有量不断高速上升,自驾游由于其出行方便、可以体验驾驶乐趣等好处,极大地受到旅行者的偏爱。据最新统计,中国居民自驾游年度出游频次、平均时长、人均消费等指标逐年上升。特别是消费者平均入住酒店消费指标增速较快,景区内的酒店如何根据消费者的行为特点和竞争对手的信息进行最优定价是一个值得研究的课题。在自驾游消费市场迅猛发展的背景下,基于消费者参考点依赖的购买效用理论,以旅游目的地内的两家竞争性酒店为研究对象,利用静态纳什博弈理论建立了两家酒店竞争定价的数学模型,分别从完美信息博弈和非对称信息博弈两个方面对两个酒店竞争时的最优定价策略进行了研究,并比较分析了参考酒店（即名气较大的酒店）和非参考酒店在上述两种情形下的最优决策。研究表明:两家酒店可以在完全市场信息的情形下达到双方利润的最大化,而任何一方的信息缺失均将导致二者的期望利润降低;参考酒店和非参考酒店应该结成商业联盟,与对方充分分享自己的市场信息才能同时实现两者利润的最大化。