Extension of two-sided test to multiple treatment trials

In a two-treatment trial, a two-sided test is often used to reach a conclusion, Usually we are interested in doing a two-sided test because of no prior preference between the two treatments and we want a three-decision framework. When a standard control is just as good as the new experimental treatment (which has the same toxicity and cost), then we will accept both treatments. Only when the standard control is clearly worse or better than the new experimental treatment, then we choose only one treatment. In this paper, we extend the concept of a two-sided test to the multiple treatment trial where three or more treatments are involved. The procedure turns out to be a subset selection procedure; however, the theoretical framework and performance requirement are different from the existing subset selection procedures. Two procedures (exclusion or inclusion) are developed here for the case of normal data with equal known variance. If the sample size is large, they can be applied with unknown variance and with the binomial data or survival data with random censoring.     

政策包问题初探

探讨了政策包应用的原则和组织实施等问题，提出了一些建设性的意见和对策。     

国外农地保护的政策措施探析

随着经济社会的发展和人口的增加，耕地仍呈现减少的趋势，制定合理的农地保护政策变得越来越重要。文章介绍了几个西方农业现代化的国家农地保护的政策措施主要形式和成功经验，并分析了其对我国农地保护的政策措施启示。     

Efficacy of programmes for the unemployed: discrete time modelling of duration data from a matched-comparison study

An evaluation is described of two UK Government programmes for the long-term unemployed in Great Britain, Employment Training and Employment Action, using discrete time hazard modelling of event histories. The study design employed a closely matched comparison group and carefully chosen control variables to minimize the effect of selection bias on conclusions. The effect of unobserved heterogeneity is investigated by using some standard random effect model formulations.     

论财政政策与货币政策的联动性

财政政策的变动必然会对货币政策产生重要的影响。由于削减预算赤字将给长期经济增长带来好处的观点已为多数经济学家所认可,因此,可以通过分析以削减政府预算赤字为核心财政管理,来研究财政政策与货币政策的联动性。财政政策的变化会通过三种途径直接影响中央银行实现物价稳定目标的能力,因此,如果预算赤字逐步减少,货币政策也应逐步调整,而不是立刻进行大幅度的调整。     

Is regression adjustment supported by the Neyman model for causal inference?

This paper examines both theoretically and empirically whether the common practice of using OLS multivariate regression models to estimate average treatment effects (ATEs) under experimental designs is justified by the Neyman model for causal inference. Using data from eight large U.S. social policy experiments, the paper finds that estimated standard errors and significance levels for ATE estimators are similar under the OLS and Neyman models when baseline covariates are included in the models, even though theory suggests that this may not have been the case. This occurs primarily because treatment effects do not appear to vary substantially across study subjects.     

罗马对意大利半岛的征服及统治政策

公元前 6世纪初 ,罗马只不过是意大利半岛台伯河畔一个占地不足 50平方英里的年轻共和国[1] 。到公元前 3世纪中叶竟发展成为号令意大利半岛 (除波河流域外 )的霸主。短短的几百年间 ,罗马的势力迅猛膨胀 ,对意大利半岛进行了全面地征服。面对征服后各地区所出现的新形势 ,罗马统治者不断地调整统治政策 ,使意大利半岛成为罗马向地中海区域进行更大规模扩张的稳固根据地。换言之 ,罗马对意大利半岛的征服 ,为罗马实现在地中海区域建立庞大帝国的美梦提供了先决条件。因而 ,探讨罗马对意大利半岛的征服及其统治政策 ,对深入了解罗马帝国的扩张史及其称霸地中海区域后所实施的统治政策有重要意义。     

论课程政策研究的系统分析框架

本文对课程研究领域———课程政策研究的方法论问题展开研究 ,提出系统分析是进行课程政策研究行之有效的方法 ,它具体分为行为研究、价值研究、规范研究、可行性研究及利益研究 5个分支。     

长征前后中国共产党对外政策论析

为挽救民族危亡,中国共产党在领导工农红军反击国民党军队围追堵截的同时,逐步调整对外方针和政策,由全面反对帝国主义到以反对日本帝国主义为主,由主张废除所有不平等条约到废除中日条约为主.中共对外政策的调整不仅是民族使命的驱使,也与共产国际的政策及国际形势的变化等有一定的关系.对外政策的转变直接影响到党的抗日民族统一战线政策.     

创作之源·女性·“如此父亲”——蒲松龄与莫泊桑比较二、三题

蒲松龄与莫泊桑作为中西短篇小说之王与巨匠,都是高产作家,然其创作之源不同,蒲松龄靠的是想象的天份,而莫泊桑的生活经历与创作实践的联系则格外密切;他们都非常关注女性,然而他们笔下的女性世界迥然不同,一为"花妖狐魅",一为人间女子;他们都写了一些有关"如此父亲"及其"孽果"———弃儿、私生子的短篇佳作,他们的命运又如何?