Effective Rotation Patterns Under Non Response in Two-Occasion Successive Sampling

This article intends to develop some effective rotation patterns with the aid of attractive imputation methods when the problems of non response occur in two-occasion successive sampling. Utilizing the information on p (p ??1) auxiliary variables regression methods of imputation have been considered and subsequently multiple linear regression type estimators are proposed to estimate the current population mean in two-occasion successive sampling. Proposed estimators are compared with the estimator for same situations but in the absence of non-response. Optimum replacement strategies of the respective estimators have been discussed and results are interpreted with the help of empirical studies. Conclusions and suitable recommendations are made.     

A Method for Measuring Distance From a Training Data Set

A new method is proposed for measuring the distance between a training data set and a single, new observation. The novel distance measure reflects the expected squared prediction error when a quantitative response variable is predicted on the basis of the training data set using the distance weighted k-nearest-neighbor method. The simulation presented here shows that the distance measure correlates well with the true expected squared prediction error in practice. The distance measure can be applied, for example, in assessing the uncertainty of prediction.     

SUFFICIENT CONDITIONS FOR A GEOMETRIC TAIL IN A QBD PROCESS WITH MANY COUNTABLE LEVELS AND PHASES

Abstract

In this paper, we present sufficient conditions, under which the stationary probability vector of a QBD process with both infinite levels and phases decays geometrically, characterized by the convergence norm η and the 1/η-left-invariant vector x of the rate matrix R. We also present a method to compute η and x based on spectral properties of the censored matrix of a matrix function constructed with the repeating blocks of the transition matrix of the QBD process. What makes this method attractive is its simplicity; finding η reduces to determining the zeros of a polynomial. We demonstrate the application of our method through a few interesting examples.     

Goals for Statistical Uses of Administrative Records: The Next 10 Years

United States statistical agencies use data from administrative record systems to develop program statistics, to establish statistical data bases, and to enhance and evaluate census and survey data. Such uses of administrative records are likely to increase as efforts to control costs and respondent burden of statistical programs continue. This review article proposes six goals for enhanced statistical uses of administrative records in the next 10 years and describes elements of an activist strategy to achieve them. The discussants, representing three agencies that make important statistical uses of administrative records, give their reactions to the proposed goals and strategy.     

Comment: The Future of Administrative Records in the Economic Programs of the Census Bureau

Using recently developed statistical tools for analyzing cointegrated 1(2) data, this article models money, income, prices, and interest rates in Denmark. The final model describes the dynamic adjustment to short-run changes of the process, to deviations from long-run steady states, and to several political interventions. It provides new insights about the effects of the liberalization of trade and capital in a small open European economy.     

Some tests for the power series distibutions in one parameter using the kullback-leibler information measure

The purpose of the article is, in case of one sample, to obtain tests concerning the parameter in the power series distribution in one parameter using Ku11back-Leibier information measure. The class of power series distibutions contains a host of discrete distributions. Ve illustrate the general results obtained in case of the geometric distibution.     

Posterior Analysis for Normalized Random Measures with Independent Increments

Abstract.  One of the main research areas in Bayesian Nonparametrics is the proposal and study of priors which generalize the Dirichlet process. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive Bayesian non-parametric analysis of random probabilities which are obtained by normalizing random measures with independent increments (NRMI). Special cases of these priors have already shown to be useful for statistical applications such as mixture models and species sampling problems. However, in order to fully exploit these priors, the derivation of the posterior distribution of NRMIs is crucial: here we achieve this goal and, indeed, provide explicit and tractable expressions suitable for practical implementation. The posterior distribution of an NRMI turns out to be a mixture with respect to the distribution of a specific latent variable. The analysis is completed by the derivation of the corresponding predictive distributions and by a thorough investigation of the marginal structure. These results allow to derive a generalized Blackwell–MacQueen sampling scheme, which is then adapted to cover also mixture models driven by general NRMIs.     

唐代矿业政策初论

唐王朝建立后,对矿业实行了以官营优先为前提的公私兼营政策,一方面由政府经营管理着部分矿业,另一方面也允许私人经营。对私营矿业的管理前后有所变化：唐前期,政府设冶监官营处,私人可以采矿,但要向冶监交纳矿税,而不设冶监官营处,私人亦可采矿,也可以矿产向当地政府折充课役。大约到开元九、十年稍前时,政府制定了专门的令、式条文向私营矿业征税,此后在管理上逐步予以加强。     

如何看待当前“消费无热点”

近年来,消费无热点成为人们对国内经济走向普遍持悲观论调的依据之一.通过对消费现状形成原因的剖折和分类,可以认为我国的消费无热点既有其客观合理性,又有一些体制因素,需要进行政策引导,以促进消费增长.     

建国来我国婴幼儿照护服务政策：发展历程、演进逻辑与行动展望

回顾建国后婴幼儿照护服务政策的发展历程可为未来婴幼儿照护服务的发展提供历史镜鉴。梳理已有婴幼儿照护服务政策,可以发现婴幼儿照护服务遵循着以供需矛盾为表征的政策动力机制、以普惠公益为目标的政策服务定位、以责任分担为机制的政策服务路径等演进逻辑。未来应在理顺政府、市场及家庭的定位与职责的基础上增加婴幼儿照护服务的有效供给、加快顶层设计的同时明确婴幼儿照护服务的主管部门、完善政策配套实施的方式上激发婴幼儿照护服务内生发展动力,促进婴幼儿照护服务良性发展。