On the estimation of non linear functions in stochastic volatility models

Abstract

This paper focuses on the inference of suitable generally non linear functions in stochastic volatility models. In this context, in order to estimate the variance of the proposed estimators, a moving block bootstrap (MBB) approach is suggested and discussed. Under mild assumptions, we show that the MBB procedure is weakly consistent. Moreover, a methodology to choose the optimal length block in the MBB is proposed. Some examples and simulations on the model are also made to show the performance of the proposed procedure.     

为合法经营活动而侵犯公民个人信息的刑法规制

最高人民法院、最高人民检察院《关于办理侵犯公民个人信息刑事案件适用法律若干问题的解释》第六条对为合法经营活动而侵犯公民个人信息行为进行独立规制,是新型犯罪罪状表述抽象化与罪状解释具体化、信息时代信息价值多元化与危害行为多样化、现代社会犯罪治理精细化与刑法评价精准化的内在要求.为合法经营活动而侵犯公民个人信息行为相关规范要素中的“为合法经营活动”应理解为主观超过要素,“获利五万元”应作严格解释,“曾因侵犯公民个人信息”应作广义解释,“其他情节严重”应包括信息数量标准.     

区块链技术下智能合约之于合同的新诠释

应用于交易领域的智能合约融入区块链技术,以代码形式表现,可实现合同履行的自动化和不可逆,超越了传统意义上的合同模式.自助行为说、代理说将智能合约视为对合同过程的外部增强,是侧面功能的法律阐释,并未完全捕捉到实质.智能合约并不一定跨越整个合同过程,也可仅是合同过程某个方面或某个阶段.法律意义上的智能合约不是合同新类型,而是合同关系形式的新发展,即当事人缔结和履行合同的新形式,合同性质未发生实质变化.智能合约满足特定要件构成特殊的书面形式,具有"书面形式+自动履行"功能的特质.民事主体通过智能合约形式订立合同应遵守《民法典》等现行法律的具体规则,以保证合同依法成立与生效.智能合约不等同于具有法律效力的合同,认定其效力应结合智能合约应用中的具体问题展开具体分析.从立法上确认智能合约,在符合国家现有法律、政策基础上编写和应用,实现形式的合法化、内容的规范化是该技术谋求长远发展的保障.技术起步的现阶段,纸质合同、一般电子合同与智能合约在不同方面发挥协作作用,会在未来一段时间内成为民事交往、商业交易的主要状态.     

Transnational policy entrepreneurs and the cultivation of influence: individuals,organizations and their networks

ABSTRACT

The ‘policy entrepreneur’ concept arises from the Multiple Streams’ theory of agenda setting in Policy Studies. Through conceptual stretching’, the concept is extended to global policy dynamics. Unlike ‘advocacy networks’ and ‘norm entrepreneurs’, the discussion addresses the strategies of ‘insider’ or ‘near-governmental’ non-state actors. The analysis advances the policy entrepreneur concept in three directions. First, the discussion develops the transnational dimensions of this activity through a case study of International Crisis Group. Second, rather than focusing on charismatic individuals, the discussion emphasizes the importance of organizational resources and reputations for policy entrepreneurship and access into international policy communities. Organizations maintain momentum behind policy solutions and pressures for change over the long term when individuals retire or depart for other positions. Third, the discussion outlines four distinct entrepreneur strategies and techniques that both individuals and organizations cultivate and deploy to enhance their power and persuasion in global policy processes and politics.     

How do countries choose their monetary policy frameworks?

This paper investigates the determinants of countries’ choices of monetary policy framework. A brief narrative focused on groupings of countries motivates an econometric analysis which draws on previous work on the determinants of exchange rate regimes, bringing in standard factors as well as the trade networks of potential anchor currency blocs and the financial market depth that are emphasised in the narrative. The model turns out to be able to predict three quarters of countries’ choices, and there is no obvious systematic pattern in the errors. The results have important implications for how countries should choose their monetary policy frameworks.     

在四月里如何谈论衰老--西川《一个人老了》细读

《一个人老了》写于1991年4月，彼时作者的生理年龄与诗中感悟分别处于跨度相距较远的不同生命时段，由此在形成诗歌内在张力的同时，也使阅读必须面对在“四月”与“衰老”之间存在的强烈反差，问题由此被提出。对这种反差的成因分析是从文本的抒情节奏、抒情肌理以及价值立场与生命观等方面的异质特征切入，解读其在诗歌渊源上与博尔赫斯、聂鲁达等世界诗人之间的互文关系，进而追溯至作者西川所代表的“知识分子写作”对阅读经验的习惯性倚重。     

20世纪初中国人对马克思思想解读的再评价

19世纪末20世纪初,马克思的思想就传入了中国,梁启超在传统大同思想与社会主义贯通中对它进行解读;早期国民党人在批判资本主义,建构民生主义中对它进行评价;无政府主义在反传统中认同马克思的共产主义。虽然各有局限性,但又各有自身的意义。以十月革命的经验解读马克思主义,遮蔽了对马克思思想早期传播的研究,研究马克思主义在中国的早期传播,对认识马克思主义中国化有重要意义。     

Humor and satire in politics: Introducing cultural sociology to the field

The landscape of political humor and satire is changing rapidly, and it is becoming an increasingly relevant aspect of our culture. Although scholars have been actively trying to capture this change, majority of the existing frameworks for understanding humor and satire in politics still reduce these phenomena to mere genres or rhetoric tools. In addition, they provide insufficient accounts concerning the reception of humor and satire, and neglect to interpret and explain what they communicate. In the article, a general understanding of humor and satire outside of a political context, followed by an overview of studies discussing humor and satire in politics through their applications in social movements, as leadership tools, and through their manifestations in mass media has been presented. Lastly, a cultural sociological perspective to the field has been introduced. It has been argued that approaching humor and satire in politics through a structural hermeneutic method of the Strong Program will enable us to recognize and treat political humor and satire as autonomous and complex cultural systems which carry an internal power to move people.     

汇率货币模型的非线性协整关系检验——基于深度GRU神经网络

本文采用深度门控循环单元（GRU）神经网络探讨三种汇率货币模型（弹性价格、前瞻性和实际利率差模型）的非线性协整关系。GRU技术在深度学习中具有智能记忆、自主学习和强逼近能力等优点。为此，本文运用该技术对6组典型浮动汇率制国别数据进行了非线性Johansen协整检验。结果表明，汇率与宏观经济基本面之间存在非线性协整关系，从而说明了货币模型在非线性条件下的有效性，以及先进的深度学习工具在检验经济理论中的优势。     

Enterprising? Disabled? The status and potential for disabled people’s microenterprise in South Korea

This article explores the position, potential and scope for self-employment and microenterprise for disabled South Koreans. The chronic barriers experienced in disabled people gaining paid work suggest that self-employment and enterprise might offer a good alternative to paid work. The self-determined nature of running a microenterprise has been shown to connect with disabled people who may not conform to standardised notions of body and brain that underpin many mainstream work contexts. Despite this promise, several barriers continue to beset disabled people’s access to micro-enterprise activity; barriers ranging from Confucian precepts, to employment protections that are geared largely towards paid employment and to the lack of training, finance and business support for disabled people starting up and sustaining microenterprise in Korea. The extension of legal protections, meaningful start-up subsidies, better business support and bridges between paid work and microenterprise are all seen as important policy correctives that would better support disabled people.