Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I–I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I–I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term “essential entities” includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state‐space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS.     

朱熹和孟子解读舜之“怨慕”的不同逻辑

对于舜之“怨慕”,朱熹作出了不同于孟子的解读。这是基于心学、理学内在逻辑的不同。孟子作为私学之儒,和孔子一样,是主张士君子的阳刚人格的,并且从性向善的人性论出发,协调义与利、公与私的关系,而以君臣父子关系都属对待关系;依此,将舜之“怨慕”解读为舜对父母的既怨又慕。朱熹则作为官学之儒,以所谓“气质之性”协调理学先驱荀子的性向恶论,以二歧化思维把天地之性、天理绝对化,以公去私,视君臣父子关系则为下对上的绝对服从关系;依此解读,舜之“怨”只能是自怨。     

需求率受推广努力水平影响的新能源汽车租赁系统协调契约

考虑由新能源汽车租赁企业和政府组成的二级系统，在需求率为随机且与推广努力水平相关的市场环境下，建立了新能源汽车租赁企业和政府之间的博弈模型，探讨了分散决策、集中决策、收益共享与成本共担契约下的最优车队配置和推广努力水平，并对三种情形下的最优决策进行了比较和分析。研究结果表明：在分散决策情况下无法实现系统协调，通过引入成本共担与收益共享组合契约，当契约参数满足一定条件时，该组合契约模型不仅可以实现系统协调而且可以使系统成员达到帕累托改进。最后通过算例分析，验证了模型了可靠性和有效性。     

Transnational policy entrepreneurs and the cultivation of influence: individuals,organizations and their networks

ABSTRACT

The ‘policy entrepreneur’ concept arises from the Multiple Streams’ theory of agenda setting in Policy Studies. Through conceptual stretching’, the concept is extended to global policy dynamics. Unlike ‘advocacy networks’ and ‘norm entrepreneurs’, the discussion addresses the strategies of ‘insider’ or ‘near-governmental’ non-state actors. The analysis advances the policy entrepreneur concept in three directions. First, the discussion develops the transnational dimensions of this activity through a case study of International Crisis Group. Second, rather than focusing on charismatic individuals, the discussion emphasizes the importance of organizational resources and reputations for policy entrepreneurship and access into international policy communities. Organizations maintain momentum behind policy solutions and pressures for change over the long term when individuals retire or depart for other positions. Third, the discussion outlines four distinct entrepreneur strategies and techniques that both individuals and organizations cultivate and deploy to enhance their power and persuasion in global policy processes and politics.     

How do countries choose their monetary policy frameworks?

This paper investigates the determinants of countries’ choices of monetary policy framework. A brief narrative focused on groupings of countries motivates an econometric analysis which draws on previous work on the determinants of exchange rate regimes, bringing in standard factors as well as the trade networks of potential anchor currency blocs and the financial market depth that are emphasised in the narrative. The model turns out to be able to predict three quarters of countries’ choices, and there is no obvious systematic pattern in the errors. The results have important implications for how countries should choose their monetary policy frameworks.     

住宅小区景观的配套设计与绿化

当前，小区的景观配置及绿化已经成为人们选择住宅的重要条件之一。小区景观设计的细节往往是小区景观的配套设计与绿化成功的关键。住宅小区景观的配套设计与绿化是自然与人的完美协调与交融，是人的精神通过加工寄托于景物的一个过程。     

Enterprising? Disabled? The status and potential for disabled people’s microenterprise in South Korea

This article explores the position, potential and scope for self-employment and microenterprise for disabled South Koreans. The chronic barriers experienced in disabled people gaining paid work suggest that self-employment and enterprise might offer a good alternative to paid work. The self-determined nature of running a microenterprise has been shown to connect with disabled people who may not conform to standardised notions of body and brain that underpin many mainstream work contexts. Despite this promise, several barriers continue to beset disabled people’s access to micro-enterprise activity; barriers ranging from Confucian precepts, to employment protections that are geared largely towards paid employment and to the lack of training, finance and business support for disabled people starting up and sustaining microenterprise in Korea. The extension of legal protections, meaningful start-up subsidies, better business support and bridges between paid work and microenterprise are all seen as important policy correctives that would better support disabled people.     

The disembedded digital economy: Social protection for new economy employment in China

This research focuses upon employment in the new economy, exploring labour protection and social protection in the digital age in China. Through an empirical survey conducted in three Chinese cities, social insurance and the labour rights of employees in the digital economic sector, such as gig employment, e-commerce, and various other forms of online employment, have been examined in-depth. This study reveals new regulatory loopholes in the digital labour market, which have substantially eroded the basis of social policy arrangements in China, “softening” participation in social insurance branches and compliance with labour regulations remarkably. Drawing upon the theoretical concepts of Polanyi on embeddedness and disembeddedness, we argue that the digital employment sector in China has been increasingly disembedded from social institutions and social control. The new configuration in the digital field of social policy requires novel conceptual models and institutional settings to cope with increasing social risks in virtual spaces.     

Journey towards independent living: a grounded theory investigation of leaving the care of Girls & Boys Town,South Africa

The journey out of care and towards independent living is a challenge for many care-leavers. There has been little research into the social processes involved in this care-leaving journey. This paper presents the results of a grounded theory investigation into the care-leaving journeys of nine young men who had, several years previously, been in the care of Girls & Boys Town in South Africa. Working from a resilience perspective, with an ecological emphasis, four central social processes emerged that together explain the care-leaving experiences of the participants. These processes are striving for authentic belonging; networking people for goal attainment; contextualised responsiveness and building hopeful and tenacious self-confidence. These four processes are located within contextual boundaries and at the social environmental interface. The paper presents these processes in detail, drawing on selected narratives of the participants and integrated with additional theory. It is hoped that this paper may contribute to theory building concerning care-leaving processes and enhance youth care practices for youth in care and leaving care.     

市场分割、政企关系与异地市场拓展

中国的市场仍旧存在某种程度的分割，如何突破这种市场分割到异地拓展市场是企业要考虑的现实问题。以前的研究主要是从省级层面或国家层面进行宏观分析。文章创新地从政企关系视角入手来考察市场分割情形下微观层面的企业异地市场拓展，也是首先把市场分割（和异地市场）分为省内（本市外）市场、省外市场和海外市场三个不同层面来研究的论文。用世界银行的调查数据从微观企业个体层面检验了企业异地市场拓展的可能。实证研究结果发现，市场分割确实阻碍了企业异地市场拓展，但这仅限于省内市场而不是省外市场。此外，市场分割是有方向性的，从地方保护主义严重的市场里走出来的企业更容易拓展异地市场，但此结论仅适用于国内市场拓展而不适用于海外市场拓展。良好的政企关系是有利于企业异地市场拓展的，但仅限于省外市场，对省内市场以及海外市场是无效的。文章解释了其中的原因，并分析了对于企业实践的启示。