Estimation of the intensity function of an inhomogeneous Poisson process with a change‐point

Recent work on point processes includes studying posterior convergence rates of estimating a continuous intensity function. In this article, convergence rates for estimating the intensity function and change‐point are derived for the more general case of a piecewise continuous intensity function. We study the problem of estimating the intensity function of an inhomogeneous Poisson process with a change‐point using non‐parametric Bayesian methods. An Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is proposed to obtain estimates of the intensity function and the change‐point which is illustrated using simulation studies and applications. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 604–618; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

A general central limit theorem and a subsampling variance estimator for α‐mixing point processes

We establish a central limit theorem for multivariate summary statistics of nonstationary α‐mixing spatial point processes and a subsampling estimator of the covariance matrix of such statistics. The central limit theorem is crucial for establishing asymptotic properties of estimators in statistics for spatial point processes. The covariance matrix subsampling estimator is flexible and model free. It is needed, for example, to construct confidence intervals and ellipsoids based on asymptotic normality of estimators. We also provide a simulation study investigating an application of our results to estimating functions.     

Bayesian inference for stable Lévy–driven stochastic differential equations with high‐frequency data

In this paper, we consider parametric Bayesian inference for stochastic differential equations driven by a pure‐jump stable Lévy process, which is observed at high frequency. In most cases of practical interest, the likelihood function is not available; hence, we use a quasi‐likelihood and place an associated prior on the unknown parameters. It is shown under regularity conditions that there is a Bernstein–von Mises theorem associated to the posterior. We then develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian inference, and assisted with theoretical results, we show how to scale Metropolis–Hastings proposals when the frequency of the data grows, in order to prevent the acceptance ratio from going to zero in the large data limit. Our algorithm is presented on numerical examples that help verify our theoretical findings.     

The covariance of the backward and forward recurrence times in a renewal process: the stationary case and asymptotics for the ordinary case

In a Poisson process, it is well-known that the forward and backward recurrence times at a given time point t are independent random variables. In a renewal process, although the joint distribution of these quantities is known (asymptotically), it seems that very few results regarding their covariance function exist. In the present paper, we study this covariance and, in particular, we state both necessary and sufficient conditions for it to be positive, zero or negative in terms of reliability classifications and the coefficient of variation of the underlying inter-renewal and the associated equilibrium distribution. Our results apply either for an ordinary renewal process in the steady state or for a stationary process.     

A Bitcoin-inspired infinite-server model with a random fluid limit

The synchronization process inherent to the Bitcoin network gives rise to an infinite-server model with the unusual feature that customers interact. Among the closed-form characteristics that we derive for this model is the busy period distribution which, counterintuitively, does not depend on the arrival rate. We explain this by exploiting the equivalence between two specific service disciplines, which is also used to derive the model’s stationary distribution. Next to these closed-form results, the second major contribution concerns an asymptotic result: a fluid limit in the presence of service delays. Since fluid limits arise under scalings of the law-of-large-numbers type, they are usually deterministic, but in the setting of the model discussed in this paper the fluid limit is random (more specifically, of growth-collapse type).     

Transnational queer sociological analysis of sexual identity and civic‐political activism in Hong Kong,Taiwan and mainland China

The sociology of homosexuality lacks engagement with queer theory and postcolonialism and focuses primarily on the global metropoles, thus failing to provide a plausible account of non‐Western non‐normative sexual identities. This research adopts the author’s newly proposed transnational queer sociology to address these deficiencies. First, it critiques the Western model of sexual identity predominantly employed to elucidate non‐Western, non‐normative sexualities. It does so by examining not only the queer flows between West and non‐West but also those among and within non‐Western contexts to produce translocally shared and mutually referenced experiences. Second, the proposed approach combines sociology with queer theory by emphasizing the significant role of material, as well as discursive, analyses in shaping queer identities, desires and practices. This article employs the approach to examine young gay male identities, as revealed in 90 in‐depth interviews conducted in Hong Kong (n = 30), Taiwan (Taipei, n = 30) and mainland China (Shanghai, n = 30) between 2017 and 2019. More specifically, it highlights the interplay between the state and identity by investigating the intersection and intertwining effects of these young men’s sexual and cultural/national identities, revealing three different forms of civic‐political activism. The article both demonstrates the way in which sexuality and the state are mutually constituted and provides nuanced analysis of the heterogeneity of contemporary homosexualities in Hong Kong, Taiwan and mainland China. In applying a new sociological approach to understanding sexuality, this research joins the growing body of scholarship within sociology that is decentring the Western formation of universal knowledge.     

Resistance as Sacrifice: Toward an Ascetic Antiracism

Often described as an outcome, inequality is better understood as a social process—a function of how institutions are structured and reproduced, and the ways people act and interact within them across time. Racialized inequality persists because it is enacted moment to moment, context to context—and it can be ended should those who currently perpetuate it commit themselves to playing a different role instead. This essay makes three core contributions. First, it highlights a disturbing parity between the people who are most rhetorically committed to ending racialized inequality and those who are most responsible for its persistence. Next, it explores the origin of this paradox—how it is that ostensibly antiracist intentions are transmuted into “benevolently racist” actions. Finally, it presents an alternative approach to mitigating racialized inequality, one that more effectively challenges the self‐oriented and extractive logics undergirding systemic racism, rather than expropriating blame to others, or else adopting introspective and psychologized approaches to fundamentally social problems, those sincerely committed to antiracism can take concrete steps in the real world—actions that require no legislation or coercion of naysayers, just a willingness to personally make sacrifices for the sake of racial justice.     

The effect of media sexism on women’s political ambition: evidence from a worldwide study

This paper presents results from one of the first global studies on the relationship between media sexism and the share of candidates for the lower chamber of national parliaments who are women. Data on media sexism come from the Global Media Monitoring Project, the most reliable worldwide source for media coverage from a gender perspective. The data on share of female political candidates come from the Inter-Parliamentary Union. The results show that that there is, even when controlling for the number of women in parliament, electoral system, gender quotas, level of human development, level of women’s rights, freedom from corruption, and media access, a significant relationship between media sexism—measured as (i) the share of all news subjects that are women and (ii) the share of all news subjects portrayed in the function of experts who are women—and the share of women candidates for parliament: the higher the level of media sexism, the lower the share of women candidates. The theory discussed zooms in on a bystander effect: We hypothesize that sexist portrayals of women in the media stifle ambition among women who, in a less sexist media environment, would be willing to stand as political candidates.     

Gender,work, and childcare in Kazakhstan,Mongolia, and Russia

The current study seeks to understand the nature of gender relations within a post‐Soviet welfare model in Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and Russia. On the basis of the analysis of key labour market indicators, parental leave, and childcare policies, it finds that the welfare models in the three countries are hybrid, and neither authoritarianism in Kazakhstan and Russia nor democracy in Mongolia lead to substantive gender equality outcomes. Persistent gender inequality in these countries is underpinned by the neo‐liberal approach to welfare provision, conservative social norms, and limited agency of civil society to influence the policy agenda. Nonetheless, these states have distributed to the population with an emphasis on working mothers, and this policy choice has been driven by economic, demographic, and political considerations, which ultimately serve to support, rather than transform, the patriarchal power structure in these societies.     

论美国保护预备被监护人权益的基本原则

预备被监护人是指即将被安排监护的当事人.经过十余年改革,美国成年监护制度形成了保护预备被监护人权益的一系列基本原则.这些原则包括:"实质性损害"标准、最小限制性替代措施、"功能性行为能力"标准、正当程序原则.我国成年监护制度立法理念相对落后,借鉴美国的成功经验来重构和完善我国的成年监护制度具有重要意义.