对股市泡沫成因的博弈分析

股票市场泡沫是经济活动过程中存在的必然产物。本文将运用博弈论的观点来解释股市泡沫的成因。     

基于知识视角的制造企业与生产服务组织共生关系分析

生产服务对制造企业竞争能力的提升具有重要影响,二者之间的互动关系日益受到关注.鉴于生产性服务业的知识密集属性.将企业知识理论和共生理论融合起来.指出二者共生关系的本质是知识共生,进一步分析了二者共生的三个维度即互动学习共生、权益安排共生、关系资本共生.     

政治参与:政治文明和政治现代化的时代命题

政治参与、政治文明与政治现代化三者,存在着密切的逻辑关系。政治文明作为人类文明的一个进步状态和政治生活方式,希冀表达的是一种状态和目标;而政治现代化则重点显现的是一个政治的发展过程,试图完成从传统政治方式向现代的整体转换;公民的政治参与,则是实现政治现代化和政治文明的途径和方式。政治参与的意义,不仅仅在于它的工具理性,更在于它最终言明了政治文明与政治现代化的价值指向。     

从读者反应理论看朱生豪、梁实秋的莎译本中文化空缺词的翻译

读者接受理论为文学翻译提供了一个更为开放的视角,值得重视和借鉴。然而,如果全盘接受读者接受理论的观点,把文学翻译仅仅看作一种译者主体行为,势必会导致不准确的翻译。读者对于文化空缺词的接受能力是一个历史的动态变化过程。     

论军校思想政治教育中的“法制权威教育”

分析了加强法制教育、进一步培养生长干部学员法制权威意识的必要性,指出了目前军队院校"法制权威教育"中存在重视程度不够、教育模式较落后、缺少专业军事法律人才培养等问题,提出了加强军队院校"法制权威教育"应从统一思想认识、普及法律意识和规范教育体系等三个层面做好工作等具体措施。     

Estimating household structure in ancient China by using historical data: a latent class analysis of partially missing patterns

Summary.  Social data often contain missing information. The problem is inevitably severe when analysing historical data. Conventionally, researchers analyse complete records only. Listwise deletion not only reduces the effective sample size but also may result in biased estimation, depending on the missingness mechanism. We analyse household types by using population registers from ancient China (618–907 AD) by comparing a simple classification, a latent class model of the complete data and a latent class model of the complete and partially missing data assuming four types of ignorable and non-ignorable missingness mechanisms. The findings show that either a frequency classification or a latent class analysis using the complete records only yielded biased estimates and incorrect conclusions in the presence of partially missing data of a non-ignorable mechanism. Although simply assuming ignorable or non-ignorable missing data produced consistently similarly higher estimates of the proportion of complex households, a specification of the relationship between the latent variable and the degree of missingness by a row effect uniform association model helped to capture the missingness mechanism better and improved the model fit.     

走向多元化的儿童文学理论研究

新时期以来,儿童文学理论研究走向了多元化,理论研究的多元化集中在两个层次上:一是儿童文学的功能性研究;二是儿童文学接受主体的研究。     

刑事违法观与犯罪构成关系论

按照主观违法论而加以建构的传统犯罪构成理论有别于按客观违法论建构的大陆法系犯罪论体系,两者有着不同的研究进路和研究方法。主观违法论强调有责之违法,行为人的主观罪过、客观的危害行为、刑事责任能力都是违法的构成要素,这种因人而异的违法观不能很好地为司法实践提供理论根据。从主观违法论立场出发,我们不可能从构成要件其中一个方面单独地判断违法性是否存在,传统犯罪构成理论将犯罪构成要件定位于反映行为社会危害性的事实特征,因此,犯罪构成只反映定罪结论,不反映定罪过程。     

努力建设社会主义政治文明

发展社会主义民主政治 ,建设社会主义政治文明 ,是全面建设小康社会的重要目标。坚持党的领导、人民民主、依法治国 ,是具有中国特色社会主义政治文明的三大支点和三大基本特征。社会主义政治文明建设的现实取向主要是推进党的建设、发展人民民主、落实依法治国、加强制度创新。     

Diagnostics for dependence within time series extremes

Summary. The analysis of extreme values within a stationary time series entails various assumptions concerning its long- and short-range dependence. We present a range of new diagnostic tools for assessing whether these assumptions are appropriate and for identifying structure within extreme events. These tools are based on tail characteristics of joint survivor functions but can be implemented by using existing estimation methods for extremes of univariate independent and identically distributed variables. Our diagnostic aids are illustrated through theoretical examples, simulation studies and by application to rainfall and exchange rate data. On the basis of these diagnostics we can explain characteristics that are found in the observed extreme events of these series and also gain insight into the properties of events that are more extreme than those observed.