社会工作视野下的城市少数民族流动人口问题

城市少数民族流动人口问题正逐渐成为社会关注的一大热点,文章主要对城市少数民族流动人口的现状、特点,对城市发挥的积极功能和城市少数民族流动人口问题的具体表现作一概述,并从社会工作这一新的视角分析了城市少数民族流动人口问题的成因,在此基础上就社会工作如何介入此问题提出一些建议.     

浅析中国土族人口分布格局及其社会发展

人口分布格局,既是人在空间分布上呈现出来的地理状态,又是许多附着于分布环境上的社会人文变量的外在表现,因此对其进行研究具有探索自然和认识社会的双重意义。本文就中国土族人口的分布格局进行探讨,从历史和现实两方面分析了形成这种分布的原因,并在此基础上探讨了与人口分布格局密切相关的人口城市化、人口流动、人口素质提高、区域经济发展等社会热点问题,以期为政府政策的制定提供可靠的依据。     

Consistent Probabilistic Social Choice

Two fundamental axioms in social choice theory are consistency with respect to a variable electorate and consistency with respect to components of similar alternatives. In the context of traditional non‐probabilistic social choice, these axioms are incompatible with each other. We show that in the context of probabilistic social choice, these axioms uniquely characterize a function proposed by Fishburn (1984). Fishburn's function returns so‐called maximal lotteries, that is, lotteries that correspond to optimal mixed strategies in the symmetric zero‐sum game induced by the pairwise majority margins. Maximal lotteries are guaranteed to exist due to von Neumann's Minimax Theorem, are almost always unique, and can be efficiently computed using linear programming.     

甘肃省农业经济效益的地区差异及成因分析

以西部大开发战略实施以来的2001-2014年为研究时段,运用基尼系数、泰尔指数、灰色关联模型对甘肃省农业经济效益区域差异及时空演化特征进行单指标和多指标综合测度,并对其影响因素进行探讨.研究表明:甘肃省农业经济效益绝对差异呈加快扩大趋势,而相对差异和极化程度阶段性波动降低;宏观地域分异特征十分明显,北高南低、西高东低的空间格局10多年来未发生明显改变;历史发展基础、农业生产条件是农业经济效益格局演化的内部因素,而农业产业结构和区域发展政策是其外部推手.     

现代汉语语气词意义主观性的主体差异--以《雷雨》为例

文章旨在探讨说话人在使用现代汉语语气词表达主观意义时的主体差异。研究表明:表达主观意义的语言手段多种多样,说话人为了实现交际目的需对其进行选择,这种语言选择会受到各种主客观因素和话语功能的影响。文章尝试以语言主观性为理论基础, 建立现代汉语语气词意义主观性的分析模式,然后对《雷雨》中语气词意义主观性的主体差异进行了个案分析。      

Nonparametric Estimation of the Number of Drug Users in Hong Kong Using Repeated Multiple Lists

We update a previous approach to the estimation of the size of an open population when there are multiple lists at each time point. Our motivation is 35 years of longitudinal data on the detection of drug users by the Central Registry of Drug Abuse in Hong Kong. We develop a two‐stage smoothing spline approach. This gives a flexible and easily implemented alternative to the previous method which was based on kernel smoothing. The new method retains the property of reducing the variability of the individual estimates at each time point. We evaluate the new method by means of a simulation study that includes an examination of the effects of variable selection. The new method is then applied to data collected by the Central Registry of Drug Abuse. The parameter estimates obtained are compared with the well known Jolly–Seber estimates based on single capture methods.     

老龄化背景下社会养老服务体系需求研究 ——以滁州市为例

已有的以“居家为基础、社区为依托、机构为支撑”的社会养老服务体系实际运行中未达到预期效果,存在目标人群模糊, 核心功能不清等问题。通过滁州市居民养老服务需求的调查,构建需求=意愿×能力的模式,研究老人养老服务意愿,支付养 老服务的能力,提出以照护为核心,在居家养老基础上对空巢、独居老人加强社区综合平台的作用,突出高龄、失能、半失能老 人机构养老的支撑作用,引进社会力量,以满足老年人群多样化多层次需求     

中西方丧葬习俗差异及文化透视

死亡是人生的最后归宿,丧葬是对一个生命结束的最后处置仪式和对生命体死亡超越的一种寄托。中西方传统丧葬在举办主体及程序、墓地选址及建设、丧葬基调、丧葬用具等习俗方面存在着巨大差异,从中可以折射出中外文化的不同。受中国城市化建设以及西方文化在华传播的影响,中国现代丧葬仪式开始呈现出程序化、中西文化交融的特征。在文化多元化的今天,摒弃封建迷信的同时,中国应该继承发扬优秀的传统文化,发出文化最强音。     

Choosing summary statistics by least angle regression for approximate Bayesian computation

Bayesian statistical inference relies on the posterior distribution. Depending on the model, the posterior can be more or less difficult to derive. In recent years, there has been a lot of interest in complex settings where the likelihood is analytically intractable. In such situations, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) provides an attractive way of carrying out Bayesian inference. For obtaining reliable posterior estimates however, it is important to keep the approximation errors small in ABC. The choice of an appropriate set of summary statistics plays a crucial role in this effort. Here, we report the development of a new algorithm that is based on least angle regression for choosing summary statistics. In two population genetic examples, the performance of the new algorithm is better than a previously proposed approach that uses partial least squares.