流动人口违法犯罪问题及对策思考

流动人口违法犯罪一直是社会关注的热点问题,我国城市刑事案件的发案率与流动人口数量之间有着高度的相关性。导致流动人口犯罪有多方面的因素。针对流动人口犯罪的特点采取相应的对策:一是加强流动人口管理。改革流动人口管理体制,转变观念,提高服务意识,充分发挥公安机关的职能作用;二是从制度层面解决流动人口问题。只有二者兼顾,预防和打击流动人口犯罪才能收到良好的效果。     

中国柯尔克孜族人口变迁、分布及特点

柯尔克孜族是一个原生跨界类跨国民族,中国境内的柯尔克孜族77.4%分布在新疆的克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州境内,是我国少数几个仍然以畜牧业为主的民族。柯尔克孜族的人口发展和变迁具有自己的一些特点。在与世界接轨的今天,柯尔克孜族和我国所有民族一样,正处于艰难的人口转型之中。     

台湾-大陆人口老龄化比较研究

本文评述了台湾-大陆人口老龄化的历史发展过程及人口老龄化的特征;运用台湾-大陆的统计资料建立计量模型,从而运用定量的方式分析对比了两岸的人口老龄化成因;最终提出了关于缓解两岸人口老龄化冲击的措施。本研究不仅有助于增进两岸的了解,也为两岸互相汲取经验、互惠互利提供了帮助。     

甘肃省人口分布变化及其原因分析

本文从甘肃省人口的数量分布和自然密度着手,对人口分布的决定因素进行了分析,并结合耕地密度和人口综合经济密度状况对甘肃省人口分布的现状做出了评价,最后提出了引导人口在地区间合理分布的建议。     

常态化与正规化：社会转型期流动人口管理的新构想

伴随着工业化进程的加速,流动人口规模以超常规的态势增长。随着社会条件的复杂,流动人口所引发的社会问题也越来越复杂化,流动人口的城市择业、社会生活、子代教育和社会保障等问题日趋严峻,鉴于此,对于流动人口的管理首先在理念上要推陈出新,政府及各职能部门、社区等需要通力配合,流动人口管理才能步入常态化、正规化和合理化。     

农民家庭收入变化的人口流动因素分析——以湖南省为例

本文分析了湖南省农民家庭收入及人口流动现状,并利用相关数据定量分析了人口流动对农民家庭收入的影响。结果表明,单纯依靠农村人口的流动来实现农民的大幅增收是不现实的,只有建立在农村人力资本存量不断提升基础上的农村人口流动,才能从根本上解决农民增收的问题。     

An Explanatory Model for Projecting Regional Fertility Differences in the Netherlands

Current differences in the level of the total fertility rate (TFR) between Dutch municipalities are smaller than they were in the 1970s and 1980s. Nevertheless, there are still considerable differences. Small municipalities have higher TFRs than large cities. This article aims to answer the question whether these differences will decline further until differences between large and small cities disappear. For that purpose we develop a regression model of regional differences in the TFR including demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural variables. Using the estimation results we decompose differences in fertility between large and small cities into the contribution of differences in levels of the determinants versus differences in the relationships between the determinants and fertility. The results show that differences in cultural variables have a larger effect on differences in the TFR than the demographic and socioeconomic variables. As cultural differences do not tend to change quickly, they will not lead to quick changes in regional differences in the TFR. Demographic differences are not expected to lead to strong changes either, as the two demographic variables (household structure and ethnic structure) have opposite effects. As the effect of the socioeconomic variable is caused by differences in the magnitude of the regression coefficient rather than by differences in the value of this variable, even if differences in this variable disappeared, this would still not lead to convergence of the TFR. Thus the article concludes that differences in the TFR between large and small cities are not likely to diminish quickly.     

“Replacement Migration” from the Perspective of Equilibrium Stationary Populations

An equilibrium stationary population results whenever a population is projected assuming (constant) below-replacement fertility and annual flow of net migrants whose age-sex composition is also fixed. This framework is useful in interpreting the results in the U.N.'s report on Replacement Migration. It is especially helpful in seeing why the annual volume of immigration must accelerate if the policy goal is to maintain today's relatively youthful age structures. Replacement Migration is largely demographic in nature and ignores a number of potential connections to economics and other social sciences. Had those connections been strengthened, readers might have been more convinced that population aging and population decline are important problems that require immigration as a solution.     

吉林省农村人口问题与社会经济发展分析

吉林省是我国重要的商品粮基地,“三农”问题是制约吉林省农村社会经济发展的主要障碍,农村人口与社会经济发展之间还有很多不和谐的方面。在国家大力支持农村和农业发展的政策条件下,分析吉林省农村人口发展的现状与问题,科学规划农村人口发展,对于加快吉林省全面小康社会建设和振兴老工业基地具有重要的现实意义。     

需进一步控制我国人口增长的实证分析

谈进一步控制我国人口增长是缘于“五普”人口数据不准,算全面建设小康社会人口大账的考虑,以及用生产力标准衡量的结果。文章研究认为,进一步控制我国人口增长所牵涉的问题可以通过观念更新、措施更新解决。