我国财政供养人口比的变迁及其启示

中国财政供养人口比的增长一直备受人们的关注。本文对我国财政供养人口比的变迁状况进行了分析,并对我国的这一状况进行了理论解释,进而也从中得到一定的启示。     

对我国当前人口老龄化问题研究的概念和理论探析

目前国内关于人口老龄化研究的文献中对人口老龄化的概念理解有明显的误区,并由此导致对人口老龄化问题、特点的认识不科学;人口老龄化的社会经济影响问题的研究方法论存在明显的不足,并就此提出自己的见解。     

我国人口老化与老年人口问题辨析

人口老化和老年人口问题是两个既有联系又有区别的人口学概念。在我国,人口老化现象是实施计划生育的必然结果,但老年人口规模的增大和老年人口问题产生却不是计划生育的产物。人口老化和老年人口问题的本质是一个发展的问题。人口太多仍将是21世纪我国面临的首要人口问题,其次才是人口素质和人口结构问题。人口老化是全面解决我国人口问题和实现可持续发展战略的必由之路。     

顺应形势发展 适时转轨变型

延边州的计划生育工作取得了显著成绩,率先实现了低出生,低死亡、低自然增长的现代人口再生产类型,形成了低生育水平下稳定发展态势。在新形势下,延边州计委工作重点转向提高出生人口素质,强化优质服务、积极开展人口发展研究等方面。     

Motor Vehicles in China: The Impact of Demographic and Economic Changes

While China's transportation sector is relatively small compared to other nations—both in absolute terms and relative to the size of the population—the nation is currently experiencing one of the highest annual motorization growth rates in the world. This rapid growth has raised both excitement among business leaders over the potentially enormous market for automobiles and concern among environmentalists over their further impact on the global environment. This paper examines the influence of population growth, increased urbanization, and economic development on the rapid growth of motor vehicles in China, and considers their implications for future motor vehicle growth in the country.     

“Projecting the Future by Looking Over One's Shoulder at the Past”: The Milken Institute's One-Sided Analysis of California's Future

The first Michael Milken Institute conference on the state of the state of California, held November 5, 1999, identified 21st century opportunities and challenges in light of recent economic and demographic trends. The panelists came from the banking/venture capital, industrial, real estate development, think tank and political spheres. Notably absent were delegates from the environmental community. Optimism reigned: The presenters considered that the shortage and soaring price of housing are major concerns, yet they could not view this as a contra-indication to future population increase. Possibilities of major ethnic clashes in a state where no ethnic group commands a majority went unaddressed. Both the conference materials and those present subscribed to the view that growth is good and bigger is better; no other indicators of quality of life were mentioned. Ecological overload and threats of collapsing eco-systems, the permanent water shortage foreseen by state planners beginning as early as 2015, and the increasing vulnerability to inevitable natural disasters as major earthquakes and droughts should population projections be fulfilled (today's 35 million will grow to 50 million by 2020; carrying capacity level is about 10 million) all went unmentioned. Those present left falsely reassured that for California the 21st century will largely be a replay of the 20^th.     

Dynamics of age- and size-structured populations in fluctuating environments: Applications of stochastic matrix models to natural populations

Recent developments of the theory of stochastic matrix modeling have made it possible to estimate general properties of age- and size-structured populations in fluctuating environments. However, applications of the theory to natural populations are still few. The empirical studies which have used stochastic matrix models are reviewed here to examine whether predictions made by the theory can be generally found in wild populations. The organisms studied include terrestrial grasses and herbs, a seaweed, a fish, a reptile, a deer and some marine invertebrates. In all the studies, the stochastic population growth rate (ln λ _s ) was no greater than the deterministic population growth rate determined using average vital rates, suggesting that the model based only on average vital rates may overestimate growth rates of populations in fluctuating environments. Factors affecting ln λ _s include the magnitude of variation in vital rates, probability distribution of random environments, fluctuation in different types of vital rates, covariances between vital rates, and autocorrelation between successive environments. However, comprehensive rules were hardly found through the comparisons of the empirical studies. Based on shortcomings of previous studies, I address some important subjects which should be examined in future studies.     

浅议知识型员工的管理

科学技术对于产品与服务的竞争起着决定作用,而掌握和运用科学技术的主体是知识型员工。只有正确认识并合理利用人力资源,吸引、保留和激励组织系统内最优秀的人才,才能谋求战略上的长远发展。分析了知识型员工的特点及目前我国知识型员工管理现状,给出了知识型员工的管理策略,即着重培养知识型员工对组织的认同感和归属感、工作成就感,建立合理有效的薪酬激励机制,给予知识型员工充分的发展空间,构造以人为本的软环境,实施内部流动制度。     

新课标下的中学体育教师现状调查及对策研究

采用文献资料调研、问卷调查及专家访谈等方法,对参加第4届中国学校体育科学大会的陕西部分中学及其他11所中学体育教师的年龄、学历、职称、数量、授课情况和科研水平等进行了调查。调查结果表明,中学体育教师队伍呈年轻化趋势,低职称、低学历教师所占比例较高,教师数量总体上趋于平衡,科研水平过低。建议中学及政府部门重视年轻体育教师的培养,合理配置师资,并通过各种有效措施提高教师的科研水平,为促进新课标在陕西更好地实施,为中学体育教学改革提供参考依据。