"言意之辨"与宋明理学

以"言意之辨"的方法,重新解释儒家经典,建构"性与天道合一"的本体论的形而上学体系,弘扬儒学精神,是宋明理学家之所以能够实现综合创新的深层原因,具体体现在三个方面一是"得意忘言"经典解释方法;二是"圣人体无"的本体直觉方法;三是"辨名析理"的逻辑建构方法.     

论唐代广州内外港与海上交通的关系

唐代广州港分为扶胥港等外港和广州城等内港。扶胥港是中外商舶进出广州的必经之地,人们在此停泊一般与参拜南海神庙有关,扶胥港在中外商贸活动中作用有限。但其在护卫中外商贸交通,保证海上丝路畅通方面起到了重大作用。而广州对外贸易的繁荣与海上交通密不可分,广州城港不仅可利用珠江与广大腹地相连,而且直接与海外交通。广州城内外的相关官署和海阳等馆驿大都位于沿城南、城西的水滨,与海外贸易交通有关。唐代中后期历任广州地方官员的贪廉都对外贸的发展产生了一定的影响。     

Ethnicity as a risk indicator for musculoskeletal disease, long consultation times and care utilization A prospective visitor study of 438 consecutive adult consultations of a primary health care centre

This article shows the influence of ethnicity (people born outside Sweden and in Sweden) and social class (socioeconomic class) on the distribution of diagnoses, consultation time and health care utilization in primary health care controlled for sex, age, marital status and educational level. The study was designed as a prospective primary health care utilization study during 7 consecutive weeks. Of a total of 439 adults who lived in the residential area, 290 were born in Sweden and 149 were born elsewhere. The data were analysed unmatched with logistic regression and Poisson regression in main effect models. People born outside Sweden received significantly more diagnoses per consultation than people born in Sweden. The strongest independent risk indicator for musculoskeletal disease was being born outside Sweden, with an estimated odds ratio (OR) of 5.01, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.70–8.72. Age over 44 was associated with increased odds for musculoskeletal disease. Respiratory disease, as an indicator of less serious disease, were significantly less common among people born outside Sweden (OR = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.33–0.87). Being born outside Sweden was a risk indicator for consultations longer than 30 minutes (OR = 3.03, 95% CI=1.18–7.43). There were no differences between people born in Sweden and those born elsewhere in health and utilization. Social class was not associated with any of the dependent variables.     

居民发展能力评估与差异比较——以甘肃省张掖市、甘南自治州为例

阿玛帝业森的能力理论是有关人类文化发展、福利经济学、社会政策研究的哲学论述,是有关个体福利和生活质量评估、社会整顿、政策制定和社会改革等的标准分析框架。本文在简要介绍阿玛帝亚森能力分析的概念和评估方法之后,采用社会学研究方法,通过问卷调查,以黑河流域张掖市与甘南自治州城市居民的能力分析测定为例,尝试在国内开展能力分析的定量研究,并比较影响两地区居民能力的主要因素,分析了提升个体能力,开展能力分析研究的重要意义。     

Optimal designs for multivariate logistic mixed models with longitudinal data

This paper considers the optimal design problem for multivariate mixed-effects logistic models with longitudinal data. A decomposition method of the binary outcome and the penalized quasi-likelihood are used to obtain the information matrix. The D-optimality criterion based on the approximate information matrix is minimized under different cost constraints. The results show that the autocorrelation coefficient plays a significant role in the design. To overcome the dependence of the D-optimal designs on the unknown fixed-effects parameters, the Bayesian D-optimality criterion is proposed. The relative efficiencies of designs reveal that both the cost ratio and autocorrelation coefficient play an important role in the optimal designs.     

The quantile-based flattened logistic distribution: Some properties and applications

In this paper, the quantile-based flattened logistic distribution has been studied. Some classical and quantile-based properties of the distribution have been obtained. Closed form expressions of L-moments, L-moment ratios and expectation of order statistics of the distribution have been obtained. A quantile-based analysis concerning the method of matching L-moments estimation is employed to estimate the parameters of the proposed model. We further derive the asymptotic variance–covariance matrix of the matching L-Moments estimators of the proposed model. Finally, we apply the proposed model to simulated as well as two real life datasets and compare the fit with the logistic distribution.     

Evidence of bias in the Eurovision song contest: modelling the votes using Bayesian hierarchical models

The Eurovision Song Contest is an annual musical competition held among active members of the European Broadcasting Union since 1956. The event is televised live across Europe. Each participating country presents a song and receive a vote based on a combination of tele-voting and jury. Over the years, this has led to speculations of tactical voting, discriminating against some participants and thus inducing bias in the final results. In this paper we investigate the presence of positive or negative bias (which may roughly indicate favouritisms or discrimination) in the votes based on geographical proximity, migration and cultural characteristics of the participating countries through a Bayesian hierarchical model. Our analysis found no evidence of negative bias, although mild positive bias does seem to emerge systematically, linking voters to performers.     

Analysis of the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy Maternal Cohort Study: the Discordant Case–Control Pairs

The progeny of the affected and non-affected dams in the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) cohort study were paired in terms of their farm of origin and approximate date of birth. This paper presents an exact logistic regression analysis that avoids modelling the differences between the pairs and so analyses only the discordant pairs. There is some evidence that the pairs in which the affected animal was born to the affected dam tend to be those in which the onset of BSE in the affected dam preceded or occurred soon after the calving. This suggests some occurrence of maternal transmission.     

Bias correction for parameter estimates of spatial point process models

When a spatial point process model is fitted to spatial point pattern data using standard software, the parameter estimates are typically biased. Contrary to folklore, the bias does not reflect weaknesses of the underlying mathematical methods, but is mainly due to the effects of discretization of the spatial domain. We investigate two approaches to correcting the bias: a Newton–Raphson-type correction and Richardson extrapolation. In simulation experiments, Richardson extrapolation performs best.     

Regularized proportional odds models

The proportional odds model (POM) is commonly used in regression analysis to predict the outcome for an ordinal response variable. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) approach is typically used to obtain the parameter estimates. The likelihood estimates do not exist when the number of parameters, p, is greater than the number of observations n. The MLE also does not exist if there are no overlapping observations in the data. In a situation where the number of parameters is less than the sample size but p is approaching to n, the likelihood estimates may not exist, and if they exist they may have quite large standard errors. An estimation method is proposed to address the last two issues, i.e. complete separation and the case when p approaches n, but not the case when p>n. The proposed method does not use any penalty term but uses pseudo-observations to regularize the observed responses by downgrading their effect so that they become close to the underlying probabilities. The estimates can be computed easily with all commonly used statistical packages supporting the fitting of POMs with weights. Estimates are compared with MLE in a simulation study and an application to the real data.